Issue 842, 5 December 2008

Crunch time beckons for Kuwait’s comeback premier

Mere survival is not enough: supporters of Sheikh Nasser Mohammed want to see the prime minister give decisive leadership in overcoming family rivals and parliamentary opponents.

Sheikh Nasser Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, Kuwait’s embattled reformist prime minister, continues to face down conservative Islamist parliamentary critics who have been accused of fronting for traditionalists factions within the ruling family. Meanwhile the emirate remained without a government as GSN went to press.

Defying Salafi demands that he submit to a formal interrogation by members of parliament, Sheikh Nasser Mohammed submitted his resignation on 25 November. Crucially, he retained the support and confidence of Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, who quickly ruled out a fresh dissolution of parliament and held talks with MPs before inviting Sheikh Nasser to form a new administration.

Sheikh Nasser enjoys wide sympathy in the National Assembly – where he can probably count on majority support – and among the public, where there is widespread dislike of the sniping he has endured from rival faction leaders in the ruling family. But even among sympathisers, there is growing impatience with the premier, a shy habitué of power’s corridors. Potential supporters want to see him give stronger leadership, set a more determined policy course and surround himself with a more capable and committed ministerial team. “He needs to bring in people who have a strong personality and good track records,” a well-connected former minister told GSN. “He needs people who work like a team.”

Calls for the questioning of Sheikh Nasser Mohammed have been led by Waleed Tabtabaei, one of Kuwait’s most prominent Salafist MPs. The Salafists’ notional case for a parliamentary grilling was largely based on concern about government spending and the premier’s decision to allow a brief visit by an Iranian Shiite cleric, who had been accused of making insulting comments about companions of the Prophet. The grilling motion’s three Salafi sponsors – Tabtabaei, Mohammed Hayef Al-Mutairi and Abdullah Al-Barghash – also accused the prime minister of failing to “perform his constitutional duties”, and alleged that corruption and squandering of public funds had increased under his leadership of the government.

Insiders sympathetic to the prime minister have suggested that the Salafis were acting on behalf of former oil minister Sheikh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah and his brother Athbi. Tabtabaei – who used to lead one of the two main Salafi factions but now ploughs a more independent furrow – has angrily rejected this claim.

However, there is little doubt that the latest outburst of political fireworks reflects the tensions and rivalries within the Al-Sabah and across the wider political class, that have been underlying Kuwaiti public life since before Emir Sheikh Sabah’s 2006 accession. Much more overtly than Sabah (his predecessor as premier) Nasser Mohammed has sought to position the government as an ally of further democratisation, typified by an unusually determined attempt to prevent tribal primaries being held in the run-up to the 17 May general election (GSN 841/5). But the prime minister has struggled to establish a position of real strength. He still lacks the self-confidence to build a base of support and challenge his critics in open political combat. Even potential allies fear it is now make or break time. “I think this would be Sheikh Nasser’s last chance,” said a prominent liberal. “I really do think so, because otherwise we would lack public support. People have sympathy because his cousins are against him. But he has to show strong leadership. People like him but they are getting impatient.”

Reformists would like to see the appointment of more determined modernisers, like Nouriyah Al-Sabeeh – the education minister who continues to face a barrage of criticism from Islamist MPs and threats that she will again be subjected to a grilling (GSN 839/1). Reformists will be deeply disappointed if Al-Sabeeh is not retained in the new ministerial team. But above all, whether ministers are liberal or conservative Islamists – such as widely respected Commerce and Industry Minister Ahmed Baqer – its supporters want to see a strong, decisive government. If Sheikh Nasser lacks the strength to win political battles, onetime supporters will look for a new leader who can push the reform agenda forward and overcome traditionalist rivals.

Despite the crisis mood some MPs were left mystified by the government’s resignation. Veteran liberal MP Mohammad Al-Saqer asked: “The government has a majority of supporters in the parliament, so why resign?” The government claimed Sheikh Nasser Mohammed had the support of 42 of the 50 MPs in refusing to submit himself to a grilling. But if this was the case, why didn’t Sheikh Nasser come to the National Assembly, address its members and then invite them to vote – defying his critics on the floor of the house, as Sabeeh did earlier this year?

While only the three Salafi MPs had publicly called for the grilling, it seems the senior leadership was afraid that more MPs might have backed the call for a question session, had the matter come to a vote. In late October, MP Ahmed Al-Mulaifi had threatened to grill Sheikh Nasser over naturalisation procedures and alleged expenses irregularities at the Prime Minister’s Diwan. Mulaifi withdrew his threat in early November – some local media said owing to his lack of parliamentary support, while others suggested the government cut a deal. Ahmed Al-Saadoon’s Popular Bloc was also reportedly planning to interrogate the premier on the expenses issue. It may be that the Emir and premier felt that MPs’ demands for this grilling was a step too far: one Kuwaiti columnist said grilling a prime minister was much more serious than questioning an ordinary minister.

The usual response to such a challenge would be the dissolution of parliament and fresh elections. But it is only six months since Kuwaitis’ previous visit to the polling stations and Sheikh Sabah may have concluded that yet another vote would be destabilising at a time of economic crisis, and do little for international perceptions of the democratic system (GSN 826/1).

Conflicting principles

In backing away from the grilling process, Sheikh Nasser Mohammed angered political blocs such as the liberal National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or Popular Bloc, that might support him over substantive issues. These parties are staunch defenders of MPs’ right to call ministers to account; if necessary, they will defend this right ahead of specific policy issues. Colleagues rapidly disowned NDA member Ali Al-Rashed when he suggested that grilling the premier should be postponed for a year or two, until the political climate cooled down. The NDA argued that delay would “hinder the rights of lawmakers, as guaranteed by the constitution.”

Shiite parliamentarian Adnam Abdulsamad favoured delay – reflecting fears among his co-religionists that the assault on the prime minister was a cover for a wider fight-back by Al-Sabahs associated with traditional patronage politics. Such old-guard figures stoked up the row early this year over the presence of Abdulsamad and fellow Shia MP Ahmed Lari at a commemoration for Hizbollah commander Imad Mugnieh, who had been assassinated in Damascus (GSN 826/1, 825/5). They tried to exploit the affair to counter-attack against Shiites who had been prominent in the campaign against high-level corruption and vested interests. The charge was led by Al-Watan, a newspaper owned by former oil minister Sheikh Ali Al-Khalifa and edited by his son, Sheikh Khalifa Al-Khalifa.

Hidden agendas and rivalries may lie behind the recent assault on Sheikh Nasser Mohammed. On the face of it, Salafi criticism of his decision to allow the Iranian cleric to visit Kuwait – even though he was on a list of banned individuals – reflects conservative Sunni Islamist disagreement with Shiite religious commentary. This is worrying in a country where inter-faith relations have traditionally been relaxed and tolerant. Mainstream Shia Islamist MP Saleh Ashour has complained about imputed criticism of Shiism’s purity of faith as implied by Salafi moves against Sheikh Nasser. But government allies, and many liberals, fear the attack on the premier is also tied to the wider Al-Sabah tensions, which have been bubbling to the surface ever since 2005, when Al-Salem grandee Sheikh Salem Al-Ali Al-Sabah publicly expressed concern about his branch of the family’s share of senior posts. The Al-Salem then divided over whether to support an initial attempt to install the ailing official crown prince Sheikh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah as emir, after the death of Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah in January 2006. Eventually, parliament intervened to insist that the next in line, the alert and capable Sheikh Sabah, should take over, which relegated the Al-Salem to a relatively weak position, with only one senior representative in government, cerebral Foreign Minister Sheikh Dr Mohammed Al-Salem Al-Sabah.

A further rivalry was opened up by the decision of Sheikhs Nasser Mohammed and Sabah to drop Sheikh Ahmed Al-Fahd as oil minister. Sheikh Ahmed had faced questioning over the Al-Tanmia affair, in which a Kuwaiti company sold fuel at a vastly inflated price to the Iraqi branch of US company KBR, part of the Halliburton group (GSN 762/9).

The premier has sought to promote a more modern operation of government, eventually acceding to parliamentary pressure for a constituency reform intended to curb the influence of vested interests. However, Al-Sabah advocates of a more traditionalist style of politics – led by Sheikh Ahmed Al-Fahd, who has assiduously cultivated tribal alliances – are continuing to fight their corner. In resisting such pressures, the beleaguered premier wants to be seen as the standard bearer for modernisation. But his capacity to mobilise consistent support among the wider reformist political community is hampered by his sporadic resort to old-style political tools, such as the latest resignation and reappointment. Meanwhile, his opponents attempt to tarnish his credibility and questions remain whether the formation of a new cabinet will protect Sheikh Nasser from future grilling motions and effectively end the political crisis.