Issue 704, 21 February 2003

Kuwait Prepares Uncomfortable Front Row Seat

As US and UK forces build up for a new Gulf war, no country other than Iraq has more at stake in this stage of the conflict than Kuwait.

In Kuwait City the sense of waiting, almost of expectation, is palpable. The usual turf wars and political sniping continue, but there is also an admirable sense of national purpose, with civil society groups playing an important role. For this wealthy but intensely political Gulf oil state, the gathering crisis is an altogether more mixed experience than for other Arabs. The prospect of war stirs few jingoistic impulses – despite understandable bitterness towards an Iraqi regime that remains fundamentally unrepentant about the 1990 invasion and still fails to reveal the true fate of more than 600 missing prisoners of war.

Kuwaitis are well aware that a new conflict would not only bring fresh civilian suffering in Iraq but could also expose them to retaliatory chemical or biological attack. But they are desperate to see the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime, whose threatening proximity has held in check their development aspirations (with the effective closure of the northern frontier region) and self-confidence. Given the strength of Saddam’s internal dominance and repressive security apparatus, the impending American invasion offers the best prospect of a change of government in Baghdad. Understandably, Kuwait does not feel engaged in the ferocious international diplomatic tussle over whether to move ahead to military action.

The government does not want to mark itself out from the rest of the Arab world as a cheerleader for President George W Bush. But, in contrast to many other Arab governments, it cannot pretend it would prefer to see Saddam survive, “de-fanged” of his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) through an intensified United Nations inspection programme. Privately, almost everyone wants to see Saddam go, including Islamists and anti-government liberals and nationalists canvassed by GSN, as well as the ruling Al-Sabahs. They hope regime change will be achieved smoothly, through a quick war or Saddam’s removal through exile or a coup.

However, many believe that even when the USA’s awesome firepower is taken into account, the conflict may not go as easily as many armchair generals predict – and that Iraq could fragment into unstable regional and political interest groups. A refugee crisis is possible: there are plans for tented camps within the demilitarised zone along the border; the cabinet has ordered the formation of a committee to streamline and co-ordinate relief efforts, led by retired General Ali Al-Moumen.

The mood of fatalism about the crisis evident across the Arab world is, to some extent, felt in Kuwait. A final decision on whether there will be a war is in the hands of Washington and Baghdad, the weapons inspectors, UN Security Council and possibly other players like UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan, Russian President Vladimir Putin, China, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and a handful of West European governments. The Middle East is almost a spectator in the argument. But Kuwait has other perspectives too. In other Arab countries there is a sense of powerlessness and resignation, but also of anger at the Bush Administration’s desire to drive forward to war.

In many places, military action will be perceived as a Western attack on Muslims. This is a good reason for Kuwait to distance itself from Bush – and explains why the official Kuwait News Agency (Kuna) issues statements such as the one reported by Assistant Under-secretary to the Crown Prince/Prime Minister Diwan Sheikh Faisal Al-Hamid Al-Malik Al-Sabah that Acting Premier Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah had assured a visiting Jordanian delegation that Kuwait was not a “party in the current conflict between the United States and Iraq”.

In Kuwait City, this is accompanied by a quiet but deeply felt hope that, however it comes about, coming weeks bring the Baathist regime’s ejection from power – and its replacement with a leadership committed to peaceful and civilised co-existence with its neighbours. The US build-up is fanning the flames of radical Islamism. Kuwaiti Islamist Mohammad Al-Mulaifi said attacks on US nationals will get worse in the event of a war with Iraq, because “Al-Qaeda and its sympathisers believe the blood of American soldiers is fair game in Kuwait”. An Islamic Endowments Ministry employee, Mulaifi was arrested in October for making inciting statements following the killing of a US soldier. There have been several killings since (GSN 703/6; 698/3).

Invoking the Peninsula Shield

Kuwaitis are preparing for the possible conflict amidst a curious mixture of apprehension and normality. They can draw some reassurance from the decision of other Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states to assign troops, probably from the common Peninsula Shield force, based at Hafar Al-Batin in northern Saudi Arabia. The decision was taken at an 8 February emergency GCC ministerial meeting in Jeddah chaired by Saudi Deputy Prinme Minister, Defence and Aviation Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdelaziz. Kuwaiti Defence Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah said these units would arrive “as soon as possible” to assist national forces in assuring the security of Kuwait’s frontiers.

Indirectly, this will facilitate a US attack on Iraq by freeing up US and UK troops that otherwise might have to remain behind to protect Kuwait. But the reinforced GCC support will offer only limited comfort. For everyone in Kuwait is aware that the real Iraqi threat is not a 1990s-style land attack – which is a remote possibility – but some form of “non-conventional” retaliation with WMD. The Eid Al-Adha was celebrated as usual, with a three-day public holiday. Families went to their beach chalets; others slipped off for a leisure break in Dubai. Playgrounds and beach promenades were bustling, while café tables outside the old Mubarakia souk downtown were still crowded with late evening socialisers as everyone tried to just carry on with everyday life as usual.

Some businessmen will tell you there is no danger. They have heard the latest US technology is so advanced that ‘no missile could reach Kuwait’, that the hit-and-miss Patriot air defences of Tel Aviv and Riyadh in 1991 were of ‘stone age’ effectiveness compared with the protection against Iraqi retaliation the USA will provide this time. Others argue that even a desperate Saddam will refrain from any counter-strike on Kuwait because that would swing Arab public and government opinion towards greater support for the USA.

Missile threat

Kuwait’s emergency planners are not so sure. They believe there is a real threat, whatever air defence technology the US deploys. The risk of missile attack is taken seriously. No system can provide fool-proof protection against incoming projectiles, Kuwaiti officials believe. “You cannot defend Kuwait 100% – the threat is real,” one planner said. Another senior official visited by GSN was jotting down a shopping list of precautionary purchases, including an in-home water purification unit, on his notepad as he chatted.

Chemical or biological weapons (CBW) pose the main threat. It is not thought likely that defences could be penetrated by sufficient conventionally-armed missiles to cause widespread damage – although a strike against oil or petrochemical facilities could have a significant environmental impact. But even one CBW projectile getting through – or being shot out of the air, but dispersing its deadly cargo as it fell – could have a major impact.

There is also concern that Iraqi agents already in Kuwait might try to release such substances. “We have ricin here, I am sure,” said one analyst, making a cross-reference to the recent discovery of a terrorist poison laboratory in London. Alternatively, Iraq could engage in eco-terrorism by releasing poisons into the Shatt Al-Arab, to be washed down into the northern Gulf. There is also a danger of air pollution from bombed Iraqi facilities, particularly in the industrial zones around Basra. “There is no defensive system that can stop a cloud,” pointed out one defence planner.

In-fighting

Kuwait has undertaken substantial emergency preparations, but these have been hampered by turf battles between rival departments and squabbles over the allocation of resources and equipment. Matters are not helped by Kuwait’s long-running political difficulties, with an ageing leadership seemingly unable to settle the succession line and set out a clear vision for future development.

Behind the façade of inter-departmental co-operation, rivalries for political kudos are being fought out, undermining overall effectiveness. There are complaints of empire-building, red tape and sluggish decision-making by some senior officials. Concerns are also expressed about a lack of transparency. A $300m emergency budget has been allocated for the Interior Ministry, but it is not clear how much of this has so far been spent, and on what. This creates a risk of equipment wastage in some areas and shortages in others.

…and national unity

But against this must be set the strength of national determination among ordinary Kuwaitis. By the time any conflict takes place, some of these problems will have been overcome, not least thanks to the enthusiasm of individuals and the strength of civil society groups. People with specialist expertise are rallying round. Volunteers are offering to help. Beneath the surface there is panic, but it is increasingly purposeful panic. This is perhaps most evident in the widespread determination not to be forced abroad by the threat of an Iraqi attack or terrorism.

With the northern third of a smallish country now a closed military zone, much of the desert still closed to civilians because of landmines left from 1990-91 – almost impossible to clear in shifting sand – and few provincial towns well away from the capital, Kuwaitis have no obvious safe areas to retreat to. Faced with this situation, locals are torn between an attempt at a phlegmatic determination to press on with everyday life as normal, and the inevitable fear of the risks they face.Many have asked themselves if they should seek safety in Dubai, Saudi Arabia or Europe, or whether to sit the crisis out at home. The Eid Al-Adha holiday period was a curious test. Some people took their families abroad, often to Dubai, on the assumption that travel might soon become difficult.

Many Kuwaitis prefer not to leave if it means they cannot then get back in because of wartime precautions and flights bans. When Iraq attacked in August 1990, one-third of the national population was abroad, escaping the fierce midsummer heat. Another third fled, usually driving through the desert to Saudi Arabia. About 200,000 Kuwaitis – one-third of the national population – remained during the seven-month occupation. Many of those who found themselves trapped abroad “last time around”, or who then fled, feel strongly that they should stay on this occasion. Asked about plans to send their children to the Lower Gulf or Europe, they insist that, at least at this stage, they intend to keep their families here.

There is a strong feeling that Kuwait should not allow Iraqi threats to force people to abandon their normal routine any more than is absolutely necessary. Most people recognise that their views could change if there was a serious attack. But at this stage, most are determined to stay.

The migrants’ dilemma

For the army of foreign workers, matters are rather different. Already, many US civilians are leaving and American schools are closing – much to the annoyance of the Kuwaiti middle class parents who patronise them. Asian countries have drawn up evacuation plans for their citizens and set aside aircraft to fly them out if necessary. But it remains unclear whether they will automatically do so if war begins in Iraq, or only if Kuwait itself is then attacked.

Indian Airlines and Air India are involved in a plan to evacuate more than 50,000 Indian nationals, with aircraft diverted from normal routes expected to evacuate around 3,500 a day. Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando and Labour Welfare Minister Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena have set up a task force to evacuate some 170,000 nationals employed in Kuwait if war breaks out. South Korea has urged its nationals to leave Kuwait, Iraq and Israel, and has pledged to mount a similar evacuation operation as that planned by India.

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo flew in to meet the Kuwaiti leadership and boost the morale of her 60,000 citizens living here. She and other Asian leaders have to balance the difficult task of protecting their citizens with the need to ensure that their jobs and share of the future peacetime employment market are secure for the future. Many individual foreign workers are reluctant to leave unless there is an official evacuation. If they leave early they jeopardise their jobs and have to pay their air fares – and they simply cannot afford to risk losing their Kuwait salaries unless they are forced to.