26-29 September: Affordable Housing Development Summit Middle East, Manama
27-28 September: Unconventional Gas, London
3-5 October: Middle East Investments Summit 2010, Dubai
3-6 October: SWPF - Saudi Water & Power Forum 2010 Conference & Exhibition, Saudi Arabia
3-7 October: Funds Forum Middle East, Bahrain
4-6 October: POWER-GEN Middle East 2010, Doha, Qatar
10-12 October: The 3rd annual Saudi Arabia International Oil & Gas Exhibition & Conference, Dammam
11-12 October: Unconventional Oil 2010, London
12-14 October: Offshore Middle East 2010: The 3rd Annual Offshore Middle East Conference & Exhibition, Doha
18-19 October: Maghreb/Middle East Renewable Energy Conference, Marrakech
24-27 October: MENA Mining Congress 2010, Dubai
26-28 October: Iraq Mega Projects 2010 Conference & Exhibition, Istanbul
27-28 October: Gas to Liquids 2010, London
21-23 November: Private Equity World MENA 2010, Dubai
29 November-1 December: Iraq Petroleum 2010 Conference, London
6-8 December: Smart Grids Middle East, Dubai
Untitled Page
Issue 734, 14 May 2004
Prisoner abuse in Iraq: it’s not just another passing domestic news story
Rumsfeld’s Pentagon has inflicted real damage on the White House as Iraq’s transition and the US campaigning season begins. The prisoner abuse issue has the potential to turn US opinion against the occupation, with potentially incalculable consequences for the region.
Washington positively hummed with anticipation when US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) on 7 May to give evidence on US abuse of Iraqi detainees. A crowded Capitol was anticipating a rough ride for the aloof Department of Defense (DoD or Pentagon) official, but the committee eventually delivered neither bark nor bite. However, Rumsfeld’s testimony posed many questions, and later Congressional hearings, government investigations and media scoops made this only the first of many hurdles that Rumsfeld and the White House will face on the torture issue.
So far, polls show the Republican majority in Middle America can live with this. Grand Old Party strategists continue to link in the downside of Iraq with the upside of victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan and the crushing of much of Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership. While a majority of Republican voters continue to accept these connections – and doubt that Vietnam veteran John Kerry is George W. Bush’s equal on security issues – the President will remain well placed to win in November.
But the issue has the potential to derail US policy and, ultimately, the Bush presidency. The White House was angered at being ‘blind-sided’ for lack of information on the impending PR disaster, according to GSN’s soundings of National Security Council (NSC) staffers. With Bush starting his re-election campaign, the White House was happy to let Rumsfeld take the brunt of public criticism.
In Baghdad, the scandal’s impact is hampering an already complicated and delicate transition process. As Interim Governing Council (IGC) member Adnan Pachachi – seen by many as a potential president in the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), that comes to office on 1 July (GSN 733/4) – said on 10 May, the scandal adds to pressure for Western forces “to pull out as quickly as possible”. US/IIG relations may never be the same again – even before the transitional government comes to power.
Following widespread criticism of US tactics in Fallujah, the evidence of systematic abuse of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison was seen as further evidence of American ill intentions. The USA has never been on the winning side of the media battle for Arab hearts and minds, but the pictures’ release represents a dramatic low point, and there is more to come.
According to Congressional aides, Washington decision-makers (never the most sensitive to Arab demands) concluded that the initial set of images will cause a sustained spike in anti-Americanism in the Arab world. Insurgents may find Iraqis easier to recruit and some may fight harder to avoid capture.
The main impact inside Iraq will be felt most keenly by the IIG leaders and National Assembly participants – now being chosen by UN special representative Lakhdar Brahimi – and the new Iraqi security forces (GSN 733/1). The IIG, National Assembly and other Iraqis working with Coalition institutions will face increasing criticism from internal opponents, who comprise insurgents and disgruntled members of the outgoing IGC (such as Ahmed Chalabi).
The IIG will be tempted to stretch its mandate to include oversight of US military and intelligence operations, inviting future friction with the USA, whose military had still expected to dominate transition Iraq.
These are negative impacts, they are not new developments; the IIG was always going to be subjected to accusations of collaboration, and insurgents already exploited the broad base of discontent with the Coalition presence.
Damage control in Washington
The abuse scandal’s key effects will undoubtedly be felt within the White House and the Pentagon. For the Bush re-election campaign, the scandal is yet another public example of a failure to grip the issue of Iraq and to translate speeches into action.
According to a GSN source close to the presidential team, Bush’s advisor and re-election manager Karl Rove advised the President to force the DoD to shoulder full responsibility for resolving the issue and answering Congressional questions.
In both the 5 May interviews Bush gave to Arabic channels Al-Arabiya and Al-Hurra, he was careful not to personally apologise for the abuse, leaving this to others including National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, White House press secretary Scott McClellan, Coalition spokesman Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt and head of Coalition prisons in Iraq Major General Geoffrey Miller (former head of the Camp X-Ray prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba).
On 6 May, during a carefully staged meeting in the Rose Garden with Jordan’s King Abdallah II – who had refused to visit Washington in April in protest as the USA’s perceived pro-Israeli policies – Bush finally said he was “sorry” about the incidents of abuse. The decision to yield to political pressure by issuing a rare apology came after feedback from Arab states suggested it was urgently necessary. The photo opportunity showed Bush in “damage control mode”, although not yet in “presidential survival mode”.
On 11 May, Major General Antonio Taguba, who led the CJTF-7 investigation, talked of a “failure of leadership”. Democratic nominee-elect John Kerry had immediately cast the abuse issue as indicative of a “leadership failure.” Military heads could role – much attention will be paid to the former head of prisons in Iraq, 800th Military Police Brigade reserve Brigadier General Janis Karpinski and some other senor Pentagon figures including prisons chief Miller, senior Central Command officers and perhaps even Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Steve Cambone.
Firings will probably not yet include members of Bush’s inner circle. Were Bush fighting for his survival, he would immediately sacrifice Rumsfeld, but indicators from inside the Beltway – where Bush dined at Rumsfeld’s house on the same day he publicly chastised him and made a rare trip to the Pentagon on 10 May – suggested the President was committed to keeping his Secretary.
This situation could, of course, change if the abuse scandal intensifies in coming weeks. So far, the White House has responded to human rights activists’ complaints with insouciance but this situation is very different.
Damage control measures in Iraq
The Administration reacted quickly, announcing a raft of damage control measures from 30 April to 7 May.
Presidential statements on US and Arab television strongly condemned the abuse, promising investigations and “justice” for the victims, and increased oversight opportunities for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and other human rights organisations.
There will be continuing investigations into allegations – although much of the work at Abu Ghraib has already been done – and added profile may be drawn to other investigations. Speedy trials are planned for those concerned.
Detainee releases are already under way, with up to 2,400 likely in mid-May. Increased staffing, training, and adherence to the Geneva Convention will be inculcated in US Army prison guards and intelligence personnel, along with the implementation of improved conditions and interrogation techniques. Better conditions are being arranged at Abu Ghraib, including the transfer of some inmates to Camp Avalanche. This is a new tent city based on a concrete field, reducing dust and other unsanitary conditions, equipped with extensive air conditioning. Detainees will be allowed a twice-monthly family visit. US military intelligence at Abu Ghraib are likely to cease the use of up to ten of its 53 interrogation techniques.
There will be more inspection, with the ICRC and the Iraqi Human Rights Ministry maintaining a permanent presence. For the longer term, institutional arrangements will change. In time, prisons may be transferred to joint Iraqi/US control or even to the ICRC.
These measures will help to reduce anger levels, and in Congress, Rumsfeld put a characteristically positive spin on the scandal, stating that the Muslim world could now “watch how America, how a democracy deals with wrong-doing”. He should be so lucky that the Arab world sees things that way.
