Issue 745, 12 November 2004

Khalifa consolidates alliances for the post-Zayed era

With the death of Sheikh Zayed, the Gulf has lost its most revered leader, a historic figure who carefully shaped the future of UAE politics by lining up an orderly succession with Sheikh Khalifa already named as federal President and Abu Dhabi ruler, and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed’s position formalised as a powerful Crown Prince.

Amid a 40-day period of official mourning for its founding President and Abu Dhabi’s Ruler Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahayan, the United Arab Emirates is entering a new and unfamiliar era. After more than three decades at the helm, ‘Baba Zayed’ incarnated the UAE’s singular combination of modernisation and tradition; his person commanded great respect abroad and genuine popular love at home.

National grief is genuine and heart-felt, and is mixed with national relief that in a complex federation of seven emirates with huge oil wealth at the ruler’s disposal – and potentially galvanic social forces at work with the emergence of Dubai as a global-scale hub – Zayed has laid the groundwork for a smooth succession. The shape of the UAE’s future politics is already broadly known (GSN 742/12). Although not broadcast publicly, it had become clear some weeks earlier that Zayed’s health was failing to an extent that placed this unusually robust octogenarian in peril (GSN 743/3). This was a major reason why the Gulf Co-operation Council’s annual summit was moved from Abu Dhabi to Bahrain (GSN 742/1).

Already the new head of state, his eldest son, Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed, is setting a decisive leadership tone, exemplified by a reinforced federal leadership role for Abu Dhabi and a notably strengthened partnership with Sharjah, the third largest emirate. A cabinet reshuffle announced in Sheikh Zayed’s name on 1 November, the day before his death, saw the appointment of the UAE’s first woman minister, Sheikha Lubna Al-Qasimi, from Sharjah’s ruling family, to the Economics and Planning portfolio. Her brother, Sheikh Fahim Bin Sultan Al-Qasimi, previous holder of the economics post, now assumes responsibility for Gulf co-operation as part of a beefed up Ministry of State for Supreme Council Affairs.

The new cabinet also allocates an enhanced role to the powerful group of Sheikh Zayed’s sons by Sheikha Fatima Bint Mubarak Al-Nahayan – the ‘Bani Fatima’ – and the late Sheikh Mubarak Al-Nahayan’s line of the family. Sheikh Khalifa’s mother was Sheikha Hassa Bint Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al-Nahayan. The last major public act announced under Sheikh Zayed’s imprimatur – the 1 November reshuffle, the UAE’s first for over six years – served a dual purpose. It directly associated the revered father of the nation with the breakthrough of a woman to the upper echelons of government. This meant the departing Sheikh Zayed would not be seen as a man who had blocked change but one who had sponsored it.

Sheikh Khalifa does not advertise himself as a moderniser, but the appointment of Sheikha Lubna sent out a message from the Al-Nahayan to conservatives that the new man’s traditionalist style should not be mistaken for a comfort blanket. The reshuffle placed Sheikh Zayed’s name behind the key political alliances designed to consolidate Sheikh Khalifa’s governing power base.

An irreplaceable personality

Because of his unique personal role in forging the UAE federation during the uncertain early 1970s – when it was far from sure the historically quarrelsome Trucial States would be brought together in a harmonious single country – and subsequently in leading the country to peaceful prosperity through an era of massive economic and social change, Zayed could always draw on an especially deep well of popular trust and affection. His successor was always going to have to take a more deliberate and conscious approach towards the construction of a political base.

Sheikh Zayed managed to strike a delicate balance between the leadership inevitably exercised by oil-rich Abu Dhabi, and respect for the autonomy and sense of identity of the other emirates, most notably in overcoming the worst of earlier Al-Nahayan/Al-Maktoum rivalries by showing common sense in leaving an increasingly self-confident Dubai to carve its own way as a regional business hub city economy.

The roots of national respect for Zayed could be traced right back to his years as governor of Al-Ain when, in 1955, supported by the British-officered Trucial Oman Scouts, he successfully drove out the Saudis who had tried to lay claim to Buraimi oasis. According to one Abu Dhabi resident with deep knowledge of the local defence sector, a key reason for the UAE’s acquisition of battle tanks was Zayed’s appreciation of the need to protect Buraimi and other land borders. He was probably the only Arabian leader of the modern post-imperial era to have actively commanded military forces in the field of combat. His status as a Bedouin leader of substance is clear to any reader of the books of his late friend, the British Arabist Wilfred Thesiger, who knew Zayed during the turbulent 1950s.

Constructing a political base

Lacking this unique personal history – and best known earlier on for his business dealings – Sheikh Khalifa has had to take more conscious steps to construct a political base, among the Al-Nahayan, within Abu Dhabi society and across the UAE as a whole. Over a number of years he built up his court as a centre of policy planning, with its own research capacity and public relations machine. A three-volume “encyclopedia” has been published in his name, setting out his general philosophy, his strategy for economic development and employment training, and the enhancement of relations with Europe.

Reflecting recent efforts to raise the Crown Prince’s profile, he made official visits to London and Paris, for talks with Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, and accorded a major interview to Asharq Al-Awsat (GSN 712/20). But, old fashioned in demeanour and respectful of tradition, Sheikh Khalifa has also cultivated strong links with tribal networks. Within the family, his certain path to the succession was firmly settled by Sheikh Zayed some years ago.

Then, in 2003, the ageing ruler further clarified the line of succession by appointing armed forces Chief-of-Staff Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed (‘MBZ’) – rather than his second son, Sheikh Sultan – as Deputy Crown Prince. On Zayed’s death, on the evening of 2 November, MBZ automatically became the officially designated heir to the new ruler.This confirmed the political axis that has developed over recent years at the heart of power in Abu Dhabi, between Khalifa and the sons of Sheikha Fatima.

As Zayed moved to take a hands-off presiding role, especially after undergoing a kidney transplant in 2000, Khalifa emerged as de facto head of day-to-day government, with a central role in all key financial decisions. Meanwhile, the Bani Fatima managed international relations, with Sheikh Hamdan as deputy foreign minister, Sheikh Hazza as head of security and the suave Information Minister Sheikh Abdallah as a frequent media voice of the UAE. MBZ played a key informal role in diplomatic contacts.

The 1 November reshuffle moved another Bani Fatima son up the ladder, with Presidential Affairs Minister Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed promoted to full cabinet rank. New Interior Minister Major-General Sheikh Saif Bin Zayed’s mother was Moosa Bint Suhail Awaida Khalili.

Foreign attentions

The leadership has also sought to develop counter-balancing alliances, enhancing the roles of the Al-Qasimi and the Al-Nahayan’s Bin Mubarak branch. This may inject extra balance into a national leadership too often interpreted simply as an understanding between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, whose ebullient Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum is federal defence minister and a close ally of MBZ.

It is worth noting that while some new ministers – notably Sheikha Lubna at Economy and Planning are well qualified – the main losers in the reshaping of government are technocrats from outside the UAE’s ruling families. In the longer term, that may pose awkward questions for Sheikh Khalifa to answer. But the reshuffle choices are indicative of his immediate priority: the construction of a solid political base that allows him effectively to exercise real national leadership.

An indication of the speed with which he is consolidating this position came with Sheikh Khalifa’s rapid accession to the presidency. As envisaged under the constitution, Federal Vice-President and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Maktoum Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum became acting head of state when Zayed died. But on the evening after Zayed’s 3 November funeral, the Supreme Council – the seven emirate rulers – gathered to elect Khalifa as the new head of state. Many Arab leaders and senior family figures flew to Abu Dhabi for the funeral, signalling their recognition of Zayed’s achievement and Khalifa’s future importance as a regional player. Prince Charles, heir to the UK throne, also attended.

French flair

But perhaps most keen to cultivate relations with the new leadership in Abu Dhabi – a traditional ally of France’s – was President Jacques Chirac. The French leader left a European summit in Brussels early – thus neatly avoiding European Union talks with interim Iraqi Premier Iyad Allawi – to stage a flying round trip to the Emirates to express his sympathy to Sheikh Khalifa in person before the official condolence period ended on 5 November. France is a major defence supplier to the UAE and, through Total, a big player in the hydrocarbons sector. Chirac held talks with Khalifa and invited him to Paris, before travelling back to France the next day.