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2010 Iran archive
2008-2009 Iran archive
2007 Iran archive
2006 Iran archive
2004-2005 Iran archive
2003 and earlier Iran archives
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Revenge of the bureaucrats: Interpreting what the knights of NIE said about Iran
The dust has settled around the 3 December National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear programme, allowing observers to assess the results of the 16 US intelligence agencies’ consensus judgment. Although Iran could restart this research at any future point – and would do so with access to weapons grade fissile materials from 2010-15 onwards – the NIE provides some hope: Iran’s leaders are rational bargaining partners, it said, and have proven amenable to inter national engagement in the past.
Issue 820, 21 December 2007. 
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UK success for Iran’s exiled Mojahedin
The People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI – Sazmaan-e Mojahedin-e Khalq-e Iran) has won another victory in its efforts to overturn terrorist designations assigned by major powers to its alter ego the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organisation.
Issue 819 • 7 December 2007. more
GCC states engage Iran to do business and deter confrontation
Torn between fear of Iran’s nuclear potential and the pragmatic economic and political need for a good relationship with a powerful neighbour, the Arab Gulf principalities are simultaneously signalling their security concerns while giving a friendly welcome to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s roving diplomacy. Iran has reaped economic rewards, but political suspicions remain.
Issue 818, 23 November 2007. more
Iran defiant on payments, squeezed by US action
The US embargoes on Iran and Syria has significantly reduced the number of underwriters who will support business in these countries, but pockets of private market underwriting capacity remain the Lloyd’s of London market, which is maintaining a grand tradition of accepting risks that mainstream insurers fight shy of.
Issue 817, 9 November 2007. more
Iran’s Chinese financing angle
Growing recourse by Chinese companies and banks of forfaiting as a risk and finance tool for their increasing trade with Iran was a trend noted in 2006, and GSN’s soundings in Asia indicate that this is continuing, albeit with some twists.
Issue 817, 9 November 2007 more
Insurers report ever-worsening cover position
Conventional credit and political risk insurance (PRI) facilities are available globally for a range of deals across the wider Gulf region, brokers have told GSN, but Iran’s political problems are affecting its ability to secure any cover.
Issue 814, 29 September 2007. more
Rafsanjani outflanks rivals as Iranian faction fights go public
The ex-president’s unexpected victory in a clerical election takes his fight with President Ahmadinejad to a new level, it also threatens Ayatollah Khamenei’s supreme leadership, bringing deep divisions at the top of the Islamic revolutionary structure into sharper relief.
Issue 812, 14 September 2007. more
Ahmadinejad applies sticking plaster solutions
Having finally got rid of one of the Islamic Republic’s most energetic and well-respected ambassadors to the international community, Bank Markazi Jomhouri Islami Irani (Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran) governor Ebrahim Sheibani, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to use sticking plaster solutions to maintain popular support and avoid the sort of radical market reforms Iran needs to tackle its chronic structural weaknesses.
Issue 812, 14 September 2007. more
Navcent dissects Iran’s intentions as tensions increase in the Gulf’s crowded waters
US strategic thinkers have been examining how rising tensions with Iran, especially over its operations in Iraq, could spill over and threaten stability in the GCC region
Issue 812, 14 September 2007. more
Deutsche Bank the latest to prune Iran business as US pressure bites
The once positive flow of financial engagement with Europe has reversed in the face of American regulatory threats, making things yet more uncomfortable for Tehran.
Issue 811, 3 August 2007. more
Iran moves to outflank restitution claim
While most attention is focused on the application of Russian nuclear technology, the Hermitage Museum in St Petersburg is close to signing a cultural agreement with Iran.
Issue 808 • 22 June 2007. more
Trilateral talks rattle Gulf states while concealing complex Iranian dynamics
Talks involving Iran, Iraq and the USA have awakened memories of an older geopolitical order, when the GCC states were lower down the regional pecking order and two giant dictatorships vied for Washington’s attentions. As Bush seeks ‘withdrawal with honour’ from the Iraq morass, US policy becomes ever more schizophrenic.
Issue 807, 8 June 2007. more
IRAN/UAE:
Geopolitics loom over Ahmadinejad’s ‘historic’ visit
The first visit of an Iranian head of state to the UAE since its 1971 formation could have been a singularly historic event. But as Tehran and Washington shape up to each other amidst threats of disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, it looks as if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s main motivation was to garner support for Iran’s cause against the United States, and diminish GCC support for Washington.
Issue 806, 25 May 2007. more
Iranian aerospace guided by domestic drivers rather than external threats
Iran’s defence industries are growing fast, the source of great public rejoicing from President Mahfoud Ahmadinejad and his allies. But while this concerted home-grown effort points to considerable progress in the sector, Iranian military technologies have not advanced as quickly as those of Tehran’s potential adversaries.
Issue 806, 25 May 2007. more
Australian wheat exporter falls foul of payments restrictions
Beleaguered in controversy over its past dealings in Iraq, and in developments that show the intensity of the United States’ financial offensive against Tehran, the Australian Wheat Board (AWB) has admitted to falling foul of sanctions against the use of US dollars for trade with Iran.
Issue 805, 11 May 2007. more
GCC should fear Iran’s industrial spies, not its agent provocateurs
From industrial espionage to the cultivation of potential agents, Iranian intelligence is seeking to gain advantage in the Gulf monarchies – but the actual threat should not be over-stated.
Issue 804, 27 April 2007. 
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Iran the ‘story that never sleeps’ as compliance noose tightens around trade financiers
Iran has not lost all its trade finance and insurance capacity, despite the UN Security Council’s moves to toughen sanctions and Washington’s financial services squeeze, but the situation is deteriorating for importers. As GSN was first to predict, this is having a marked impact on the global trade finance market, as well as on Iran.
Issue 802, 30 March 2007. more
Big guns seek to spike ‘loose cannon’ Ahmadinejad’s armoury
In a bravado performance, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made the presidency his own in his first year in office. Now, this uniquely Iranian politician is under pressure from a range of sources, with both key elements of the Islamic revolutionary hierarchy and hawkish voices in Washington seeking to reassert some control over an apparently ‘loose cannon’.
Issue 800, 2 March 2007. more
Despite difficult times and vested interests, Iran pushes on with gas projects
US politicians are again mouthing threats, but as Iran pushes ahead with energy developments it is attracting Asian and European players who want to book LNG shipments from plants still to be built. But firm investment decisions have still to be made, with even the Chinese – usually gung-ho when it comes to political risk – acting cautiously, while powerful local vested interests further complicate the scene.
Issue 799, 16 February 2007. more
USA stops F-14 parts sales
The United States has taken further steps to isolate Iran by freezing the sale of all F-14 fighter parts, in a move to ground as many of the ‘Tomcat’ fighters as possible.
Issue 798, 2 February 2007. more
Return of fiscal discipline cannot stave off pressures
Changes to the hugely expensive fuel subsidy system are under consideration in final parliamentary negotiations over the budget for 2007/08 (calculated at $34/bbl, with global oil prices falling), as Tehran seeks to restore some discipline to government finances that drifted badly off course during the first full year of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency.
Issue 798, 2 February 2007. more
GSN View: Iran likely to win more pyrrhic victories but faces economic defeat
Opinions about the Islamic Republic’s fortunes have rarely been as divided. The mainstream image of Iran is that of a growing regional power that has successfully thumbed its nose at the West and frightened its Gulf Co-operation Council neighbours with little apparent consequence, as it continues to inch towards nuclear power status. Meanwhile, some experts view the economy as desperately broken; they see growing international hesitance to invest in Iran as the nail in the coffin; nuclear power may be achieved, but it will be a pyrrhic victory set against creeping economic sickness.
Issue 797, 19 January 2007. more
TOP
Ahmadinejad pays price for isolation and economic failures
Iranian voters unenthused by gesture politics have used the ballot box to tell the government to get back to practical basics. There were big gains for moderate conservatives in early results from municipal elections, providing the first serious rebuff for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s provocative style since his election to a four-year term 18 months ago.
Issue 796, 22 December 2006. more
Ahmadinejad pushes as many of the president’s men into office as possible
The pattern of appointments over the past year shows Ahmadinejad continuing to expand his power base at the expense of other groups, including rival conservative factions. Although reformists are regrouping after defeat in last year’s elections, their mass disqualification from this month’s municipal elections does not bode well.
Issue 795, 8 December 2006. more
ECAS go quieter still as sanctions loom
Iran has become a very awkward subject for some of the world’s export credit agencies, as the market goes into a speedy decline having been trumpeted as one of the busiest medium- and long-term (MLT) markets for ECAs in recent years (GSN 791/11, 790/1, 776/1). Their level of aggregate and individual exposure now appears to be a source of extreme discomfort to major ECAs, as the shape of potential United Nations sanctions in response to Iran’s nuclear programme becomes clearer.
Issue 795, 8 December 2006. more
Private investors make GTL play
Some companies that earlier showed interest, market leaders South Africa’s Sasol and Royal Dutch Shell, have pulled back, but Tehran believes it can still develop a gas-to-liquids project – possibly as a private sector-led scheme, rather than parastatals driving the scheme.
Issue 792, 27 October 2006. more
Saderat move accelerates swing away from dollars
The United States Treasury ban on Bank Saderat from any direct or indirect dealings with the US financial system is hastening the switch from dollars to euros in Iran’s international dealings, according to GSN’s soundings in the trade finance markets (GSN 790/1).
Issue 791, 13 October 2006. more
GSN View:
Iran and the GCC: when affable local diplomacy is not enough
It is almost a year since Abdulrahman Hamad Al-Attiyah described Iran as a threat to the region’s stability. The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) secretary-general accused the Islamic Republic of harbouring ambitions to transform south Iraq into an Iranian protectorate and described Tehran’s nuclear plans as a “serious threat to our security”.
But was Al-Attiyah really reflecting the views of member governments – and what do they feel today, having had the chance to watch President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s performance on the international stage?
Issue 791, 13 October 2006. more
Tehran holds the political line while Saderat explores its options
The American ban on a leading Iranian bank has hurt Tehran, but it is not decisive. The Bank Saderat affair may leave Iran more vulnerable to pressure from Europe, but of more concern is whether the Treasury designation signals the start of a wider conflict. Tit-for-tat measures are likely, with senior officials reaffirming Tehran’s willingness to place even more of its reserves, and transact a higher proportion of international deals, in the euro and other currencies. But as GSN argues below, cold war rhetoric still need not lead to an over-heated conflict.
Issue 790, 29 September 2006. more
After deft Iranian footwork undermines US effort, four scenarios for the Iranian nuclear standoff
As another deadline passed with no signs that Tehran would voluntarily suspend uranium enrichment, Iran’s response to the world’s most powerful nations was greeted by analysts as a virtuoso diplomatic sidestep – albeit one that might yet project the Ahmedinejad administration further along the road to a disastrous wider conflict. GSN has compiled scenarios pointing to the possible directions to be taken by players in the nuclear standoff.
Issue 789, 15 September 2006. more
Privatisation a radical solution to state’s management problem
Reports in early July that Tehran planned a sweeping privatisation programme received wide coverage but left many questions unanswered as to which assets would be sold and by what mechanisms.
It was made clear that the impulse towards privatisation came from above: it followed a statement by Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei focusing on an interpretation of the Constitution’s Article 44 that would allow large-scale privatisation.
Issue 787, 4 August 2006. more
North Korean missile threat draws attention to Iran
Pyongyang’s plans to test fire a multi-stage missile have added to attention on the Shahab series of ballistic missiles,as Washington looks for weak spots in Iran’s alleged WMD infrastructure.
Issue 785, 7 July 2006. more
GSN View:
Mossadegh’s uneasy ghost rises again in Ahmadinejad’s Iran
To anyone who has spent time in Iran of late, this recent exchange between a British official and a senior Iranian banker, which took place at a meeting hosted by a London trade association under the Chatham House rule, might seem all too predictable. The banker, eyes sparkling, asked a long and value-laden question on Iran’s nuclear standoff to the younger man, who is close to the Iran dossier in Whitehall. He ended by asking: “how does British policy now compare with the West’s approach to [Mohammad] Mossadegh’s nationalisation of the oil industry?”
Issue 785, 7 July 2006. more
GCC states signal Iran fears with Hormuz contingency plan
The Gulf States are showing growing unease with Iran’s nuclear aspirations, reflected in the publicising of new plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open in case of conflict.
Issue 784, 23 June 2006. more
Iran’s domestic political battles exacerbate international crisis
Most Iranians argue their right to have nuclear power but far fewer relish another period of international isolation. In seeking to manage the nuclear crisis while retaining credibility at home, Iran’s divided leadership is giving off conflicting signals – reflecting deep factional differences that could project Tehran farther down the path towards a disastrous confrontation.
Issue 781, 12 May 2006. more
Despite political storm clouds, Iran’s Renault project likely to go ahead
The authorities in Tehran are talking up prospects for the Logan projects. The only thing that could now threaten to block the road ahead for this economy car is a new political impasse with Europe.
Issue 781, 12 May 2006. more
Missile defence is finally on the radar: Iranian fears spur GCC interest in anti-missile shield
A host of factors will draw Iran’s missile capabilities into the spotlight in the coming year, and this will most likely push one or more GCC states to invest heavily in missile defences.
Issue 777, 10 March 2006. more
Iran stalls over Sharjah deal
The Islamic Republic was supposed to have begun exporting gas to Sharjah in Q4 2005 under an agreement with the United Arab Emirates, but there have been significant delays, with the emergence of corruption allegations and political wrangling in the Iranian Malis (parliament).
Issue 777, 10 March 2006. more
Iran crisis has the potential to sink trade finance markets
With its evolving role in Iraqi politics and strong oil and financial market positioning, Iran has more cards in its hand than western governments may care to admit. So far the United States and its allies are refusing to blink in the nuclear standoff, but as markets take stock of the latest Iranian crisis, Tehran may just have enough muscle to tough it out, hurting major trade finance markets in the process.
Issue 776, 24 February 2006. more
Iran unlikely to blink first in nuclear staring match
Not for the first time in the Gulf’s recent history, there is a growing gap in perceptions over the best way to move forward against an inveterate proliferator. Thankfully no one is talking invasion this time, but there still remains a serious risk of policy failure.
Issue 774, 27 January 2006. more
2010 Iran archive
2008-2009 Iran archive
2007 Iran archive
2006 Iran archive
2004-2005 Iran archive
2003 and earlier Iran archives
Return to main GSN's Iran page
Select another country
