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2010 Iran archive
2008-2009 Iran archive
2006-2007 Iran archive
2005 Iran archive
2004 Iran archive
2003 and earlier Iran archives
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Iranian missile technology advances under radar
Allegations that Tehran is developing longer range missile systems threaten a further deterioration in relations with the West and its allies.
Issue 771, 9 December 2005. more
Tough rhetoric confronts complex reality of ‘outlaw regimes’
Anxious to avoid the sort of humanitarian disaster and corruption now associated with sanctions against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the ‘international community’ must find alternative ways of stepping up the pressure on Tehran and Damascus. But no one is rushing to early action.
Issue 769, 11 November 2005. more
First of three Iranian satellites successfully launched
Coming hot on the heels of the international furore over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s impolitic comments, the launch of Iran’s Sinah-1 multi-purpose micro-satellite on 27 October took the Islamic Republic into the space age. In a sign of the difficulties slowing Iran’s long-range missile programmes, the satellite was placed in orbit by the Russian Kosmos-3M satellite launch vehicle, rather than by the developmental Iranian Shahab-4 and -5 series missiles.
Issue 769, 11 November 2005. more
Iran’s outsider president chooses and loses another unknown for the oil portfolio
The outsider status that made Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a successful candidate for the presidency is working against him in the corridors of government, and the energy industry is one sector that is paying the price. Ahmadinejad wants a ‘revolutionary manager’ in this key role, but his growing body of internal opponents would prefer to see sound management.
Issue 769, 11 November 2005. more
UK measures Tehran’s policy of confrontation
How far is the evolving crisis between Iranand the United Kingdom going to go? The newsflow is largely negative, and Tony Blair’s carefully wrought policy of constructive engagement’ seems dead. The Foreign Office is trying to understand what makes Iran tick before the situation explodes, but it may not have much time – and the initial prognosis is gloomy with the Ahmadinejad regime seemingly harking back to the first decade of the Islamic Revolution.
Issue 768, 28 October 2005. more
As revolution’s heirs grab the limelight, Khamenei reasserts the balance of power
With reformers sidelined, the clerical leadership is proving the principal counterweight to the radical allies of Iran’s novice president. While conservative nationalism rules, liberalism and overtures to the USA are off the agenda.
Issue 767, 14 October 2005. more
Bush bequeaths Iranian nuclear crisis to a future administration
President Bush has left ‘all options open’ in the standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and European governments are venting their frustration over Tehran’s approach – but a long period of attrition, rather than any hot war, beckons. Sanctions may eventually beckon, but first more “messy, dirty, slug-it-out diplomacy” beckons.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
Growing fear of Iranian influence in Iraq as Shia dominance cemented by new constitutional draft
Dissolving national boundaries, thriving cross-border activity, and potent Iranian influence on Iraq’s constitutional drafting, security, and governance has led Sunni leaders and Washington policy-makers to ask themselves whether the Islamic Republic will emerge as the belated winners of the1980-88 war. Whether Tehran’s influence is as profound as Iran’s enemies fear, a new era in bilateral relations has begun.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. more
GSN View: Oil Ministry tussle shows Ahmadinejad yet to master Iranian politics
The nuclear issue continues to pose complex questions for diplomats, but in the Byzantine world of Iran’s theocratic politics, electing a conservative outsider with established links to Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should have made the domestic battle lines at least much clearer than during the ambiguous presidency of reformist Mohammad Khatami. Even so, the conservative-dominated Majlis (Parliament)’s refused to endorse Ali Saeedlou’s nomination as oil minister by newly elected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, highlighting the complexity of forces still at play in the Islamic Republic.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. more
New cold war in the Gulf? USA seeks to draw GCC into ‘benign interdiction’ of Iranian shipping
The United States is starting to give serious thought to monitoring and interdicting proliferation through Iran’s seaborne trade to put a further check on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, GSN has learnt. This ‘benign interdiction’ of Iranian shipping will place GCC neighbours in some difficulty, as Washington expects them to assist it in this new cold war at sea.
Issue 761, 15 July 2005. more
Ideologue battles pragmatist to win Ahmadinejad’s political soul
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who takes office as Iran’s president on 3 August, described his election triumph in June as a “new Islamic revolution” which will “uproot injustices in the world”.
Issue 761, 15 July 2005. more
Iran’s voters caught between the real politician and street-fighter
Voters will decide between ex-president Rafsanjani and former Tehran mayor Ahmadinejad on 24 June, but whoever inherits this presidency of such limited power faces a period of difficult questions.
Issue 760, 24 June 2005. more
Continuity over change in Iranian foreign affairs
While solving foreign policy conundrums will be a crucial challenge for Iran’s next president, serious debate about international relations is notably absent from the election campaign.
Issue 759, 10 June 2005. more
Fraudulent Iranian trade finance market brings banking due diligence to the fore
Fraudulent activity in the busy Iranian trade finance market is dampening down enthusiasm and ramping up due diligence procedures. International authorities are working with Iranian banks to counter the grifters who are harming Tehran’s reputation as a good place for banks to do business.
Issue 759, 10 June 2005. more
ECAs remain hungry for Iranian deals despite US political pressures and finite risk capacity
Analysis of recent deals suggests that Iran’s stand-off with the USA is having scant impact on trade and project finance markets. But political risk concerns mean demand for guarantees to back deals far outweighs supply.
Issue 754, 25 March 2005. more
Relative calm before new storms over Iranian nuclear ambitions
Tehran needs to get serious about nuclear compliance, as a more cohesive trans-Atlantic approach is emerging and the United States is gearing up for a new multilateral challenge.
Issue 753, 11 March 2005. more
Iranian navies mix sea control and denial capabilities
Recent defence procurement trends suggest that the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces are increasingly diverging in their operational roles in the Gulf, with IRIN moving towards the long-term development of ‘blue water’ capabilities that could give Iran ‘sea control’ rather than just ‘sea denial’ capabilities. While the IRGC remains wedded to sea denial – which means preventing the enemy from using sea lanes, even if you cannot use them either – IRIN is investing in more sophisticated equipment which in a conflict would allow Iran to continue using regional waterways while denying them to its enemies.
Issue 752, 25 February 2005 . more
Halliburton to pull back
The Houston-based Halliburton group, which has operated successfully in the Islamic Republic over many years via its Cayman Islands- and European-based subsidiaries – has said it will temporarily pull out because “the business environment currently in Iran is not conducive to our overall strategy and objectives.”
Issue 751, 11 February 2005. more
Bush administration loosens oversight on covert action, but Iran remains a hard target
Unfriendly noises against Iran put the Islamic Republic centre stage at the dawn of President Bush’s second term. It is legitimate to ask whether Washington is moving back to the 1980s,promoting covert operations to destabilise Iran’s Islamic revolutionaries. GSN’s examination of US government thinking on the role that military and intelligence activities might play in Iran reveals that major policy initiatives are on the way.
Issue 750, 28 January 2005. more
Tehran’s technocrats fear fallout from supermajor mogul’s candour
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has been unable to disguise Tehran’s hurt at BP’s unvarnished admission that to do business with the Iran at the moment would be against the company’s interests in the United States, its most important market. “We do not consider this a friendly approach and we will not forget it,” Zanganeh said in what financial markets have taken as a warning that BP will now be shut out of the Islamic Republic, even if it eventually changes policy and seeks to new deals there after all.
Issue 750, 28 January 2005. more
TOP
Potential investors gush with goodwill, Iran wants to see their money in energy projects
Iranian officials want to build new alliances with European and Asian partners: above all, that means investing in and giving access to gas and other energy exports.
Issue 746, 26 November 2004. more
IRAN Political Outlook
GSN Risk Grade — D: Conservatives back in control as Europeans work to avoid major new crisis
Issue 746, 26 November 2004. more
Coping with a nuclear Iran
It is highly likely that Iran will enjoy primitive nuclear weapons capability by the time the next US presidential elections are held, irrespective of Western policy. Key variables remain whether Israel can be restrained from launching a militarily inconclusive delaying strike for domestic political reasons, and whether the Bush Administration will push for Iran’s international ostracisation as the cost of joining the nuclear club.
Issue 745, 12 November 2004. more
Peace for now: USA and Israel hold little hope that force can end Iran’s nuclear threat
There is an increasing amount of chatter about an impending air strike on Iran’s new Bushehr reactor, but soundings of the US and Israeli security community suggest this is not the most likely option.
Issue 742, 1 October 2004. more
Iranian missile tests focus minds on GCC defence
All eyes were trained on the Shahab-3’s fifth test, which showed that Iran’s new missile had ironed out teething problems to obtain even longer range. Despite Tehran’s good working relations with most GCC states, the Iranian missile programme is concentrating minds on strategy and procurement options in the Arab Gulf states.
Issue 742, 1 October 2004. more
The Iranian threat as viewed from Israel
Israel has in the past reacted to Iranian rhetoric challenging its right to exist by threatening to launch a disarming strike similar to the 1980 strike on Baathist Iraq’s Osiraq reactor. This, in turn, has drawn yet more threats from Tehran, as Yadollah Javani, head of the resurgent Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC or Sepah) political bureau, illustrated when he stated that “the entire Zionist territory, including its nuclear facilities and atomic arsenal, are currently within range of Iran's advanced missiles”.
Issue 740, 27 August 2004. more
Hackles up in Tehran, despite cooling of GCC rows
Iran has patched up its latest squabble with the UAE – with which it disputes sovereignty over Abu Musa and the Tunbs islands – but in the Islamic Republic attitudes towards the West remain prickly because of the nuclear issue. Defence Minister Vice-Admiral Ali Shamkhani has warned that pre-emptive strikes may not be the exclusive preserve of George W. Bush’s USA, as he talked up the Islamic Republic’s readiness to defend its controversial Bushehr nuclear project.
Issue 740, 27 August 2004. more
Bankers play down début corporate bond talk
Amid bubbling gossip about the possibility of a first ever Iranian corporate Eurobond – predicted to be a E300m ($371m) issue by car manufacturer Iran Khodro Industrial Group – bankers tipped to win elements of the deal are staying tight-lipped.
Issue 739, 23 July 2004. more
Iranian banks consolidate, make new friends in GCC
Bank Saderat and Bank Melli, two of Iran’s largest public sector banks, are merging their Bahrain, Qatar and Oman operations into a joint venture with the Bahrain-based Ahli United Bank (AUB). The three shareholders will each take one-third stakes in the new institution, to be known as Future Bank, which will have initial paid up capital of $99m and authorised capital of $200m.
Issue 738, 9 July 2004. more
Statoil ‘bribery’ affair not over
Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, determined to defend National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)’s integrity, promised to launch legal action against Statoil after the Norwegian authorities fined the Oslo-based company NKr20m ($2.9m) over its South Pars gas field consultancy arrangements.
Issue 738, 9 July 2004. more
Fishing disputes highlight wider regional tensions
The usually placid waters of the maritime frontier zone between Iran and Qatar have been ruffled by a violent spat over fishing rights that has cost the life of at least one fisherman and stirred fears in Tehran of a new, concerted move by Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states to support the UAE’s claim to the Iranian-occupied islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs.
As the joint owners of the world’s third largest natural gas reserves, in the giant South Pars/North Field deposit, Tehran and Doha have strong reasons to maintain friendly ties – at some stage they may even need to build joint infrastructure, such as export pipelines – but the sheer scale of the resources at stake gives an edge to frontier issues (GSN 733/7).
Issue 737, 25 June 2004. more
Financiers like Iran, wary of other non-GCC risks
Companies seeking to finance Middle East trade deals face a varying picture in terms of availability and appetite, according to banks and insurers canvassed by GSN in our latest survey of export finance activity.
Issue 737, 25 June 2004. more
Conservatives line up for Majlis, 2005 presidential election
Hardliners flexed their muscles when Republican Guards stormed Tehran’s new international airport, but more pragmatic conservative factions are looking to take Iran in a less confrontational direction. Divisions in the conservative camp are again the biggest factor in Iran’s domestic politics.
Issue 735, 28 May 2004. more
Iran’s chequered record
Few international pairings are as complicated by the plethora different political, economic and social factors that colour the USA’s love/hate relationship with Iran. Claims that Iran had “manipulated” US intelligence in the run-up to war with Iraq – apparently developing a powerful intelligence-sharing relationship with the Pentagon hawks’ premier asset, Iraqi National Congress (INC) leader Ahmed Chalabi – can only add to the tension, while the nuclear controversy will remain central to US – and Israeli – perceptions during the American election period
Issue 735, 28 May 2004. more
GSN View:
Iran’s Statoil affair highlights shifting corporate, governance views
Norway’s Statoil group is awaiting the outcome of police, parliamentary and regulatory probes in four countries into bribery allegations concerning its involvement in the South Pars gas project in Iran. Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh finds himself under domestic political pressure over the issue. Mehdi Hashemi Rafsanjani, ex-chief executive of Petropars and son of former president Hojjatoleslam Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, finds himself under the spotlight and has now reportedly agreed to be questioned by the Norwegian National Authority for Investigation and Prosecution of Economic and Environmental Crime (Økokrim).
Issue 735, 28 May 2004. more
Iran delivers warning to Qatar over North Field gas
The calm that has prevailed over the shared Gulf reservoir of Qatar’s North Field and Iran’s South Pars field – estimated to hold some 7% of global natural gas reserves but not subject to any unitisation agreement – was rudely interrupted when, in no uncertain terms, Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian told CWC’s 25-26 April Iranian Gas Conference in Tehran that Qatar should not extract more than its due from the area. “If production from this common field continues as is currently planned, the Qatari side will most probably produce more gas than her right share,” Nejad-Hosseinian said. Setting wires humming he added that Tehran would “not allow Iran’s God-given wealth to be used by others.”
issue 733, 30 April 2004. more
Faced by strategic encirclement, Iran develops the full spectrum of deterrence
Hardliners may still play games abroad and there are concerns about the effective US encirclement of the Islamic Republic, but economic goals not foreign adventures may now most influence the shape of Iranian strategy.
Issue 732, 16 April 2004. more
IRAN: UK confirms export credit push, backs corporate risk
The UK’s official export credit insurer has almost doubled the size of contract it is prepared to underwrite for National Petrochemicals Company (NPC) without the need for structured finance security arrangements. The Export Credits Guarantee Department (ECGD) will now cover transactions of up to $35m per contract.
Issue 732, 16 April 2004, more
Living with a nuclear Iran, as Tehran moves towards break-out
The Bush Administration has no need of another war in the Middle East, and even as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was receiving serial snubs as it sought to unravel the extent of Iran’s nuclear programmes – which are bigger than previously expected – Washington’s counter-proliferation community had moved on to the vexing issues of how the USA will deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, rather than planning action to prevent that eventuality.
Issue 730, 19 March 2004. more
Iran after the elections: new China or a disaster waiting to happen
Iran as the new China? There has been considerable speculation that China is the development model the new conservative political class have in mind after February’s election defeat of President Mohammad Khatami’s reformist allies. With the path to classic liberal evolution closing, many conservatives have been suggesting the Islamic Republic could follow the example set by the People’s Republic.
Iran would emulate the economic success of the Far Eastern giant while refraining from the liberalising political changes that the West tends to see as essential. The model is working for still formally Communist China – fast emerging as a manufacturing-driven motor of the global economy. But is Kish Island really the new Guangzhou or Dalian?
issue 729, 5 March 2004. more
Conservatives victorious, Iran’s political outlook uncertain
The Iran-e Eslami (Development Coalition of Islamic Iran – DCII)’s general election victory was no surprise, formally ending the latest failed phase in Iran’s transformation from Islamic revolutionary to pluralist state and economy. But doubt still hangs over the real balance of forces within the majority that captured the Majlis on 20 February.
Issue 729, 5 March 2004. more
Iran’s gas plans stumble over Kuwaiti deals, but Japanese sign for Azadegan
Iran’s hopes of striking a deal to export gas to Kuwait have hit a major obstacle with Kuwait’s decision to press ahead with schemes to import Iraqi and Qatari gas. Other political complications have thrown further roadblocks in the path of Iran’s gas ambitions, which have been its main focus in recent years. Meanwhile National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has been under growing pressure to inject life into its upstream oil developments, as production capacity is in danger of slipping without new investment. As GSN went to press, Tehran was poised to sign a long-awaited $2bn deal for the southern half of the huge Azadegan field. Japan Petroleum Exploration Company, Inpex Corporation and Tomen Corporation would develop the field, which is said to contain some 25bn-35bn barrels of reserves.
Issue 728, 20 February 2004. more
Iranian private sector banks off to promising start
They have far to go to catch up to the public sector, but Iran’s quartet of new private banking institutions seems set on a path of expansion.
Issue 725, 9 January 2004. more
2010 Iran archive
2008-2009 Iran archive
2006-2007 Iran archive
2005 Iran archive
2004 Iran archive
2003 and earlier Iran archives
Return to main GSN's Iran page
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