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2010 Iran archive
2008-2009 Iran archive
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2004-2005 Iran archive
2003 Iran archive
2002 and earlier Iran archives
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Syndication beckons for power firm’s mega excred deal
Iran is keen to get its latest major export credit deal – for a €1bn ($1.16bn) power project, backed by Hermes of Germany and the Export-Import Bank of Korea (Kexim) – wrapped up as soon as possible.
The hope is to have reached closure on all major issues in the project’s main tranche of financing by the end of the current Iranian year, on 20 March 2004.
Issue 722, 14 November 2003. more
GSN View: Iran’s nuclear deal: defining moment, or the end of the beginning?
Enthusiasts saw the 21 October deal between Iran and a triumvirate of European foreign ministers as a defining moment in contemporary geopolitics – for Europe, for Iranian reformists and for the wider cause of global peace.
Issue 721, 31 October 2003. more
Iran’s nuclear deal sends debate back to Bushehr
Striking Iran’s nuclear deal was an important occasion for European diplomacy and a big step forward in tackling a major proliferation problem, but it has not definitively solved the question of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In Washington, hawks are re-assessing their options.
Issue 721, 31 October 2003. more
Nobel not enough to unite Iran’s reformists
Iranian reformists have taken heart from Shirin Ebadi’s Nobel peace prize. But with conservative opposition still powerful, attaining their political goals remains a long way off.
Issue 720, 17 October 2003. more
Nuclear spat could see Iran reformers routed
Political fall-out over IAEA inspections and poor relations between Tehran and London, a big supporter of ‘constructive engagement’ with Iran, could lead Iranian hard-liners back to power in turbulent times.
Issue 719, 3 October 2003. more
Iran seeks release of pressures building
over nuclear programme, terrorist ties
The summer’s slow accumulation of pressures on President Mohammad Khatami is causing his government to begin sacrificing some of the cards it has kept up its sleeve throughout the year in the standoff with the USA, ostensibly over alleged weapons of mass destruction plans (WMD).
Issue 717, 5 September 2003. more
Iran Feels The Summer Heat As Attractions Wane
Under pressure from the USA on its nuclear programme and from IOCs on unattractive contract terms, Iran is struggling to develop existing fields and new finds without making too many strategic compromises.
Issue 715, 27 July 2003. more
Iran Opens Bond Markets To Wary Parastatals
Iran’s central government has decided against an early return to the Eurobond market, preferring instead to leave the field open for the country’s two blue-chip parastatals, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and the National Petrochemicals Company (NPC) this fiscal year.
Issue 714, 11 July 2003. more
Iran Squares Up To Politically Sensitive Subsidy Reform
Amidst the battles over constitutional change and media freedom that dominate the headlines from Tehran these days, Iran’s parliamentarians are debating another issue that has the potential to stir discontent far beyond the confines of the student world or the liberal middle class.
Issue 714, 11 July 2003. more
EU Pushes Politics In Tehran Trade Talks
The EU trade and co-operation agreement now being hammered out with Iran is being driven as much by political concerns as by economic and commercial ones, and the result could prove a significant milestone in European efforts to flex muscles other than military ones in the foreign policy arena in the Gulf.
Issue 713, 27 June 2003. more
Signs Of Compromise, Street Protests Resume
Amidst resurgent street protest led by student groups – encouraged by satellite TV broadcasts from exile groups in the USA – there are signs that hardline clerics on the Guardian Council (GC) may be prepared to compromise with President Mohammad Khatami and his supporters over two crucial reform bills already approved by the Majlis.
Issue 712, 13 June 2003. more
GSN View: Iran in US Sights
Never far from Washington’s attention, Iran has become the focus for another major debate within the US Administration. This has been compared to the debate over Iraq in the Bush presidency’s first year and then again after the 11 September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington.
Issue 711, 30 May 2003. more
Iranian Nuclear Ambitions Tease US Planners,
But Options For Immediate Action Seem Few
Though many in Washington believe Iran can still be convinced to abandon its nuclear ambitions, reports now indicate the country’s nuclear programme may be more advanced and more extensive than previously supposed. If diplomatic alternatives run out, the Bush Administration could pursue a military alternative.
Issue 711, 30 May 2003. more
French Car Venture
Iran Khrodro Automobile Manufacturing Group plans a new joint production venture with French car-maker Peugeot Citroën, Managing Director Manuchehr Manteqi confirmed.
Issue 710, 16 May 2003. more
Big Two Iranian Corporates Focus For UK Export Credit Push
The UK’s Export Credits Guarantee Department (ECGD), whose ability to underwrite Iranian risk was for years blocked by a dispute over pre-revolutionary debt payments, is making up for lost time, building up a bullish programme of capacity for new business in the Islamic Republic and taking direct corporate risk exposure on major parastatals.
Issue 709, 2 May 2003. more
Iran Is United, For A Moment, To Oppose War Against A Reviled Old Enemy
War in Iraq has left the political and clerical elite united in public criticism and private wariness – for all that Saddam Hussein is hated for the 1980-88 first Gulf war – Iranian reformers are working to re-establish their own position after catastrophic defeat at the hands of conservatives in the recent local elections (GSN 705/17).
Issue 707, 4 April 2003. more
Stop-Start As IOCs Assess War Risk
Oil companies had been taking security measures even before the invasion of Iraq began, but with US troops claiming to be near Baghdad International Airport on 3 April, as GSN went to press, work was resuming in northern Iran.
Issue 707, 4 April 2003. more
Iranians Think Big With GSM Roll-out
Tehran is looking to tap foreign investment to help it make the leap from being the region’s cellular phone laggard into the big league. The government unveiled ambitious plans in early 2003 to bring in private operators to roll out 5m new cellular lines through a second GSM licence, and ramp up capacity at the sole existing GSM operator, Telecommunications Company of Iran (TCI), through the use of build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts.
Issue 705, 7 March 2003. more
Export Credits Flow For NPC
HSBC has announced a $108m facility backed by the UK’s Export Credits Guarantee Department (ECGD) and reinsured by Italy’s Sace to support the construction of a styrene monomer facility at Bandar Assaluyeh developed by National Petrochemicals Company (NPC). Security from offtake arrangements is also written into the deal.
Issue 703, 7 February 2003. more
Iran Welcomes The Release Of An Ailing Object Of Emulation
The release from house arrest of a senior cleric who was the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s anointed successor before Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be nothing but big news in an Islamic Republic.
Issue 703, 7 February 2003. more
TOP
| 2002 and Earlier Archives |
Iran Defies The Sceptics Again As Second Eurobond Flies
Buoyant demand for Iran’s second Eurobond of the year (and since the 1979 revolution) has set up the Islamic Republic for a further round of fund-raising that could eventually extend beyond central government to the corporate sector and infrastructure projects.
Issue 700, 20 December 2002. more
Khatami Isolated As Campaigns For Renewed U.S. Dialogue
With Iran Gain Little Ground
Arguments for a more nuanced U.S. public policy towards Iran and limited official engagement with the Islamic Republic continue to fall on deaf ears in George W. Bush’s Washington—despite the Islamic Republic’s huge strategic importance at a time of potential conflict with neighbouring Iraq—according to officials and opinion leaders canvassed by GSN in Washington.
Issue 696, 23 October 2002. more
Iran Under Pressure Over Bonyad Accounts
Iran is coming under discreet pressure from the International Monetary Fund to open up its hugely rich bonyad (foundation) charitable organisations to scrutiny, with transparent accounts, and clearly defined statutes and operating principles.
Issue 695, 9 October 2002. more
Iran Seeks To Lead Gulf Into Petrochemicals Big League
Iran is gearing up to play the key role in the next wave of Middle East petrochemicals expansion, as it effects its transformation into the premier league of international petrochemicals heavyweights.
Issue 695, 9 October 2002. more
I.M.F. Sets Out Medium-term Reform Perspective
The International Monetary Fund’s annual Article IV consultations underlined the considerable progress made in key economic policy areas over the past year—even though Iranian reformists believe they are stymied by political in-fighting—while also highlighting areas where more progress should be made.
Issue 694, 27 September 2002. more
New Iran Bond Expected To Test Market Appetite
Buoyed by the success of its début Eurobond, Bank Markazi Jomhouri Islami Iran (Central Bank of Iran) has been drawing up plans to raise a new borrowing worth up to $950 million—the remaining financing gap that can be met from international sources this Iranian year (to 20 March 2003).
Issue 693, 12 September 2002. more
West The Real Winners of Iran Eurobond
Who would be happiest at the failure of Iran’s forthcoming Eurobond issue, analysed in GSN’s MiddleEast Insider supplement? President George W. Bush and the hawks, who pushed for Iran’s inclusion in the “Axis of Evil”, of course. But who would benefit most from the collapse of Tehran’s attempt to put down a marker in the international capital markets?
Issue 688, 12 June 2002. more
State Of Disunion Rules U.S.-Iranian Relations
A flurry of words and deeds by the U.S. and Iran has bought the perennial issue of U.S.-Iranian relations to the fore, with doomsayers predicting a continuation of the downward spiral that began in earnest with the 3 January interception of the Karine-A armaments shipment and President George W. Bush’s 29 January “Axis of Evil” State of the Union address.
Issue 687, 29 May 2002. more
Tehran Struggles To Avoid Being Sucked Into Israel’s ‘Northern Arena’
Iran’s inclusion in President George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil” had much to do with Israeli lobbying and efforts to link Iranian hardliners to events in the Holy Land. This was much to the benefit of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as he sought to demonise Yasser Arafat and the mainstream Palestinian leadership by linking them with groups such as Hamas, Hizbollah and the wave of young suicide bombers who have so rattled Israel in recent months—even if these groups are more usually seen as rivals to the wily old P.L.O. chief.
Issue 683, 3 April 2002. more
Relations Develop Beyond Unity Against A Common Foe
Kuwait and Iran appear closer to agreement on the vexed issue of disputed maritime borders, paving the way for a range of improved economic and political relations. These are already being cemented by increasingly close economic ties, culminating in the agreement to export Iranian water to Kuwait through a 540-kilometre cross-border pipeline.
Issue 681, 6 March 2002. more
Italy Seeks Afghan Advantage, Provides More Credit
Using its financial muscle, Italy is emerging as a potential partner for Iranian enterprises bidding for reconstruction contracts in post-war Afghanistan.
Issue 681, 6 March 2002. more
GSN Extra: IRAN
A comprehensive review of Iran including: Complex System Delays Subsidies Reform, Air Travel Reform,
New Forex/Subsidy Regime Delivers Brutally Honest Budget, Majlis wants bigger say on oil and gas,
$19/b oil price, Iranian Military Adapts To The Real Demands Of A Difficult Neighbourhood,
Command and compliance,
Service commanders,
I.R.G.C. commanders,
Border defence concerns, Mobile forces and Anti-carrier potential.
Issue 681, 6 March 2002. more
Jury Out As Iran, Third ‘Axis Of Evil’ Member, Bewitches U.S.A.’s International Relations
Iran’s inclusion in President George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil” has added to the gulf in understanding between Europe and the U.S.A., perplexing casual observers of U.S. Gulf policy and threatening a damaging breakdown in the Western alliance. A number of bridges seem to have been burnt, from Iran’s efforts to join the World Trade Organisation to its efforts to engage Washington over Central Asia.
Issue 680, 20 February 2002. more
I.M.F. “Comfortable” With Exchange Rate Unification Plan
Iran is well placed for the successful implementation of its exchange rate reform, scheduled for 21 March (start of the Iranian year), despite weak oil prices and the U.S. Administration’s renewed hostility, which has depressed many liberals in Tehran after the early weeks of the campaign against Afghanistan offered so much.
Issue 680, 20 February 2002. more
Ratings Agencies Prepare For Eurobond, Trade Financings Mount Up, MEI Research Shows
Bank Markazi (Central Bank of Iran) is expected to seek ratings from Standard & Poor’s and Fitch to supplement its Moody’s Investors Service B2 rating before seeking investors for its maiden Eurobond. Five international banks—BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Crédit Agricole Indosuez, Deutsche Bank and HSBC Investment Bank—in mid-January made presentations in Tehran in their bids to lead manage Iran’s first sovereign bond issue.
Issue 679, 6 February 2002. more
Export Credits Line Up Despite Bilateral Spats
Iran is lining up more export credit, despite some concern among O.E.C.D. creditors over the pace of reform in the Islamic Republic and the potential for politics to impinge on economic relations—as has been underlined by moves to block the appointment of U.K. Ambassador-designate David Reddaway.
Issue 678, 23 January 2002. more
Arms Buyers Struggle For Supplier Stability
Iran’s military procurement and local arms production is under constant scrutiny, in marked contrast to the training exercises examined in the first instalment of GSN’s series on the Iranian military (GSN 674/3).
Issue 676, 12 December 2001. more
Iranian Forces Focused On Deterrent Role
Conflict in Afghanistan places Iran in the eye of a storm in which its military/security forces could yet play an important role. Iran is confronted by security challenges from all directions, making it a prerequisite of regional risk assessments to set aside preconceived notions of its armed forces’ capabilities, motives and intentions.
Issue 674, 14 November 2001. more
Khatami/Khamenei ‘Deal’ Points Way Ahead
The prospects for Iranian reformers to make substantial progress during Seyyed Mohammad Khatami’s second Presidential term have been boosted by an apparent understanding over the conflict pitting the U.S.A. against Afghanistan between the President and the Rahbar (Supreme Leader), Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Issue 673, 31 October 2001. more
Iranian Internet Battles Mix Commercial Logic With Turf Wars
Iran was quickly branded as an ‘enemy of the internet’ following the closure of a number of Tehran cybercafes before Presidential elections in June. But while many hardliners are not internet fans, the closures may be more closely linked to commercial struggles over bandwidth provision than to the crackdown on media.
Issue 672, 17 October 2001. more
Tehran Confirms Its Bond Issue Ambitions
Iran has confirmed its plans, circulating in the market for several months, to tap the international capital markets for the first time since the 1970s. It plans to issue a E300 million ($267 million) bond by the end of the year, according to Bank Markazi (Central Bank of Iran) Deputy Governor Mohammad Mojarrad.
Issue 669, 6 September 2001. more
Iran Ups The Ante in Caspian Border Dispute
An unexpected conflict in the Caspian has underlined the potential of unresolved borders for undermining regional oil and other energy development plans. Only days after Iran and Azerbaijan had signed a new security agreement, BP—a major player in Azerbaijan with high hopes for launching new operations in Iran—was forced to suspend work on an oil field in the southern Caspian.
Issue 667, 6 August 2001. more
GSN View: Khatami's New Term Challenges
Can a leader who has just scooped more than three-quarters of a popular vote, enjoys clear support among the young, and a relatively high degree of international goodwill really be described as embattled? He can if that leader is President of Iran, where another politician/cleric is classed as Supreme Leader (Rahbar); where unelected bodies and opposition groups are dedicated to undermining the government; and where shadowy opponents are waging a sustained strategy of tension.
Issue 666, 23 July 2001. more
New Battles, Same Old Conflict
Tackling critical issues that paralysed Mohammad Khatami’s first presidential term have fast emerged as crucial to the success of his second mandate. All the signs are that conservative opponents will seek to create a climate of tension to undermine the reformist President and his allies—leading, the hard-liners hope, to greater popular discontent and an eventual change of government. .
Issue 666, 23 July 2001. more
New Test For ILSA
The USA’s resolve to maintain sanctions against Iran faces a testing period with the arrival of more European energy companies in the Islamic Republic, led by Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (E.N.I.), which has scooped the $550 million-1 billion Darkhovin field development contract. It is the Italian state company’s fourth big project in the country—and the latest deal to test the mettle of the Iran Libya Sanctions Act.
Issue 665, 9 July 2001. more
GSN View: Challenges Facing Khatami's Reform Agenda
In Iran, President Mohammad Khatami has secured re-election by another crushing majority—a victory so loudly foretold that most conservatives decided it would be a humiliating sacrifice to stand against him. Another round of bitter internal politicking beckons.
Issue 664, 25 June 2001. more
GSN Extra:
Khatami’s Back, So Are U.S. Sanctions
Mohammad Khatami romped home to another mandate in the 8 June presidential election, but popular satisfaction at another victory for reform was tempered by violent incidents involving Ansar e-Hizbollah and a threatened conservative backlash against reformist initiatives.
Issue 664, 25 June 2001. more
Iran, Iraq Scale Up Their Proxy War
Iran’s use of up to 66 surface-to-surface missiles (S.S.M.) against Mojaheddin -e Khalq (M.K.O.) bases in Iraq has dramatically underscored the escalation of a proxy war that has been brewing for the past year.
Issue 661, 14 May 2001. more
Iranian Conservatives Still to Set Out Their Stall
Two near standard terms have emerged to describe the factional contests that define politics in Iran. These describe in simple terms those who seek to resist change—“conservatives”—and the “reformists” who aim to promote it.
Issue 661, 14 May 2001. more
W.T.O. Application,
Americans Divided Over Iran Policy
Iran’s application to join the World Trade Organisation is out of the starting blocks but don’t expect any quick decisions.
U.S. corporates seems willing, but American politicians are still hesitant about doing business with Iran.
Issue 661, 14 May 2001. more
GSN View: Iran's Reformist Future
How worried should we be about events in Iran, where the reform movement is under intense pressure, and a conservative judiciary is creating an environment of instability and inequity?
Issue 660, 30 April 2001. more
Reformism In Crisis As Iranians Ponder Life Without Khatami
The reform movement has been under intense pressure since its February 2000 triumph in the sixth Majlis elections, and Majlis Deputy Speaker Behzad Nabavi has made public what many privately feared, that President Seyyed Mohammad Khatami might in the end be dissuaded from seeking another term.
Issue 660, 30 April 2001. more
Hard To Kick The Habit
Iran’s worthy efforts to combat drug smuggling have won considerable praise from foreign governments keen to keep the menace of Afghan- and Pakistani-grown heroin and opium out of their own backyards.
Issue 659, 16 April 2001. more
Iran Consecrates New Russian Relationship,
Caspian Impasse Complicates Great Game Play
President Mohammad Khatami’s 12-15 March visit to Russia did not deliver a perfect result for Iran, which remains frustrated in its efforts to have an equal division of the Caspian seabed. But the first visit to Moscow in 40 years by an Iranian leader may prove a critical step in building the burgeoning diplomatic, defence and economic relationship between Iran and Russia.
Issue 657, 19 March 2001. more
Still Guessing
Demoralised and divided over the utility of a re-election run by their figurehead, President Mohammad Khatami, Iran’s reformers can only wait for further conservative assaults until the head of state finally decides whether to seek a second term.
Issue 657, 19 March 2001. more
U.K. Backing For Drugs Fight
In a further sign of co-operation between the two countries—and the ways that Tehran is making common cause with unlikely allies against the Taliban—the U.K. government has pledged more money to assist Iran’s fight against the drug smugglers from Afghanistan that regularly infiltrate its eastern borders.
Issue 655, 19 February 2001. more
Iranian Crackdown Endangers Ties With Its Biggest Trading Partner
All is still not well in Iran’s relations with its biggest trading partner, Germany, even though the Berlin government denies that a proposed visit by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has been scrapped.
Issue 654, 5 February 2001. more
Private banking returns
After a 20-year break in which the state maintained a firm grip on the banking sector, the central Bank Markazi has finally started to receive applications to set up private homegrown banking institutions.
Issue 654, 5 February 2001. more
Cross-border Water Pipeline Talks Gather Momentum
It is one of the most ambitious projects ever to be contemplated in the Gulf, as well as a stern test of the appetite for international co-operation in the region, but the $2 billion plan to take Iranian water to Kuwait is moving ahead with stubborn persistence.
Issue 654, 5 February 2001. more
Reformers Await Khatami Decision
The uncertainty over whether President Mohammad Khatami will run for a second term this year, despite his personal frustration at conservative obstruction, is impeding reformers’ attempts to finalise a campaign strategy.
Issue 653, 22 January 2001. more
The Anatomy Of Student Power
When on 6 December, Mohammad Khatami made headlines by saying he still had no adequate authority to do his job or to make the rule of law prevail in Iran, the reformist president did so in front of thousands of students at Tehran’s Tarbiat-e Modarres (Teacher Training) University. It was no surprise that a student audience should have such prominence.
Issue 651, 18 December 2000. more
Also see Issue 561, 18 December 2000. GSN Extra
Cook’s tour in 2001, Russians offer arms now
U.K. Foreign Secretary Robin Cook will not visit Tehran this year, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (F.C.O.) has confirmed, but he has accepted an invitation from his Iranian counterpart Kamel Kharrazi for a trip next year.
Issue 650, 4 December 2000. more
Missile Development Pushes Iran Towards Engagement Or Confrontation
While any development of Iraq’s air and missile forces draw a near instantaneous response, similar developments in Iran cause concern and are closely monitored by the G.C.C. and its Western allies, but are otherwise tolerated.
However, this may not always be the case...
Issue 650, 4 December 2000. more
Also see Issue 650, 4 December 2000. GSN Extra
U.S. oil firms warned
Not long after launching an investigation into Conoco’s possible activities in the Islamic Republic, the Office of Foreign Assets Control has sent a letter to major U.S. oil companies spelling out the law in black and white which prohibits them from participating in the Iranian energy sector.
Issue 649, 20 November 2000. more
Reformists’ trial opens
The Revolutionary Court on 2 November held hearings on three reformist activists accused of endangering national security and spreading anti-state propaganda.
Issue 648, 6 November 2000. more
Tapping Iran’s E-Commerce Potential
Iran appears capable of exploiting the economic potential of e-commerce, but only once numerous obstacles to the creation of an electronic economy have been painstakingly overcome.
Issue 647, 23 October 2000. more
Tax reforms will impact across society as V.A.T. is to be introduced
Expatriates working in Iran will be among the targets of a sweeping overhaul of the Islamic Republic’s revenue system, designed to broaden the tax net and more effectively capture proceeds from personal incomes and the trading economy.
Issue 647, 23 October 2000. more
Defining the Forces of Conservatism in Iran
Before the reaction against the reform process symbolised by President Mohammad Khatami gained momentum, Iranian reformists underestimated the determination of conservative forces to fight their corner. Although increasingly marginal in numerical terms, conservatives have bitterly resisted the most serious of challenges to their power and economic status.
Issue 646, 9 Octoberr 2000. more
Competing Factions Show the Limits to Reform
Iran’s new investment law, now passing through the Majlis (parliament), is the product of a long process of economic reform. Such legislation is intended to formalise economic procedures in the Islamic Republic—and to reduce the dominance of the ‘Bazaar’ and other merchant groups who embody the informal economy.
Issue 645, 25 September 2000. more
Iranian Policy Achieves New Balance In Lebanon
Redefining how the West—and especially the U.S.A.—interprets Iran’s foreign relations, led by its involvement in Lebanon in the wake of Israel’s 24 May withdrawal from the south, will prove critical to the Islamic Republic’s reintegration into the global diplomatic and financial community.
Issue 644, 11 September 2000. more
Reformists launch parliamentary bloc
Reformers have reacted to the conservative backlash—underlined by the blocking of press reforms—by consolidating their own base, with the formation of an official parliamentary bloc.
Issue 643, 28 August 2000. more
Drought puts pressure on urban and rural communities
and undermines Kuwait “exports”
Amid suggestions that it is preparing to deploy water as an arm of diplomacy and trade—with a reported offer to export 760 million litres a day to Kuwait for the next 30 years—Iran finds itself confronted with the worst drought in three decades.
Issue 642,14 August 2000. more
2010 Iran archive
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2002 and earlier Iran archives
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