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2009 Archive – Iraq

Election thinking dominates as Iraq scores a success with oil licence awards

The successful second licensing round holds out the promise of huge financial inflows from energy revenues, enabling Iraq to finance its pressing economic and social demands. This could boost Nouri Al-Maliki’s election campaign but, in the short term, there are many political and security hurdles to overcome.
Issue 868, 18 December 2009. more

Iraq’s second bid round is potential game-changer as majority of licences are sold

The latest round has encouraged optimists and confounded those who predicted another flop. If IOCs are able to meet their commitments, Iraq will emerge as the number two OPEC exporter
Issue 868, 18 December 2009. more

Bid round details: Iraq’s second licensing round, December 2009

Issue 868, 18 December 2009. more

With election timing in doubt, oil economist appeals to voters

The continuing battle over the election law pitting Sunni, Shia and Kurdish politicians against each other means the planned 21 January general election could be postponed until at least February.
Issue 867, 4 December 2009. more

Shell’s gas use agreement may wait on new government

With probably only a few weeks left before the start of a general election campaign, authority is draining away from the Iraqi administration, which still has a great deal of business to do, including the election law, recently vetoed by vice-president Tariq Al-Hashemi.
Issue 867, 4 December 2009. more

Iraq’s late oil deals promote fragile optimism

The security outlook is worrying and the political future remains cloudy with less than ten weeks to organise a general election, but some things appear to be going right for Iraq at last. Three major oil field service contracts hold out the prospect of financial stability, while MoO and leading IOCs have found common ground after years of failure, raising optimism about the second round of licensing.
Issue 865, 20 November 2009. more

Threat of election law veto puts poll date in doubt

The possibility that the Presidency Council may yet veto the election law passed by parliament in early November means that the January 2010 election timetable is still in doubt. Analysts gave a cautious welcome after 141 of parliament’s 275 deputies voted for the law, saying it was an indication that the elections could be held on time.
Issue 865, 20 November 2009.more

Revived first round deals improve outlook for coming Iraqi licensing

After hard bargaining, the Iraqi government can now tell voters that oil output could be more than doubled within seven years. GSN highlights the spate of recent major deals.
Issue 865, 20 November 2009. more

Trading places in KRG

Former federal deputy prime minister Barham Saleh took over as Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) prime minister on 29 October, three months after parliamentary elections in the region. Saleh has cut the number of ministers from 27 to 19, and dispensed with eight ministers without portfolio.
Issue 864, November 2009. more

Soaring share price attracts Keystone backers

The prospect of major oil discoveries appears to have ended questions raised when Gulf Keystone announced that Etamic had become its partner, although there remains little information about the deal
Issue 864, November 2009. more

More attacks, deteriorating diplomacy, stagnant oil industry point to uncertain future

Risk Management Report, Issue 863, 23 October 2009. more

Political middlemen exposed in KRG oil deals

Former ambassador Peter Galbraith, who retired from the US State Department in 2003, and who recently made headlines after resigning as deputy head of the United Nations in Afghanistan, has admitted that he was negotiating a potentially lucrative oil deal in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2004 at the same time as he was advising the regional government on constitutional issues.
Issue 863, 23 October 2009. more

Iraq’s Air Force seeks to recapture former glory

Demands for the return of Saddam-era jets stranded abroad by international sanctions and a raft of contracts for fighter and training aircraft illustrate the IrAF’s impatience to achieve ‘strategic independence’ by 2020
Issue 862, 9 October 2009. more

Also see Issue 862, 9 October 2009. The future shape of the IrAF

Iraqi helicopter procurement gets political

Like Iraq’s air force, the country’s military helicopter force became a politically sensitive issue after the fall of Saddam Hussein due to the perception that such forces were extensively used in internal repression. It was arguably General Norman Schwarzkopf’s agreement to let Saddam use his helicopters after the 1991 Safwan ceasefire that sealed the fate of the uprising against him at the end of the 1991 Gulf War.
Issue 862, 9 October 2009. more

Complex deals cast shadow over Kurdistan oil boom as spotlight falls on shareholders

Exploration successes by a number of small independent companies in Iraqi Kurdistan have inspired investor interest. But scrutiny of the regional government’s unorthodox financial arrangements with its partners shows that political risks remain high, even if the geological risks are lower than first supposed
Issue 862, 9 October 2009.more

Rival Iraqi factions play kidnap politics as violence increases ahead of elections

The return of mass bomb attacks to the streets of Iraq is a potent reminder that the country is still ruled by violence. As the murder of four of the five Britons kidnapped by Shia extremists shows, extreme force still pays political dividends in this brutal environment
Issue 860, 11 September 2009. more

Horse-trading over hostages

The type of deal that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki must make to retain power is illustrated by the traumatic endgame of negotiations between the UK and Iraqi governments and a militant Shia splinter group called Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (Leagues of the Righteous) over the release of British hostage Peter Moore.
Issue 860, 11 September 2009. more

Flawed election introduces new Kurdistan opposition

Accusations of election-rigging marred the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)’s parliamentary and presidential elections, in which northern Iraq’s first credible democratic opposition emerged. According to preliminary results from the 25 July polls, the Kurdistan List, a coalition of the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), won an absolute majority in the regional parliament, while regional president and KDP leader Massoud Barzani won 69.57% in the first direct election for the post.
Issue 859, 7 August 2009. more

Baghdad’s anxiety heightened by Iranian turmoil

Washington’s decision, announced on 9 July, to release five Iranian officials detained by US forces in Iraq since January 2007 was unusually timed. The men were described by Tehran as ‘diplomats’ but were said to have included the operations chief and other members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds force, which was accused of arming local Shia militias and inciting attacks against US forces.
Issue 858, 24 July 2009. more

ECGD’s restoration of export cover after 19 years points to Iraq’s return as a trade credit

Iraq remains at far from ‘normalisation’, or being regarded as a bankable risk, but the country’s political progress and a gradual improvement in security are helping to alter the perceptions of the trade finance and insurance communities
Issue 858, 24 July 2009. more

Risk management report

GSN Risk Grade —E/5: Maliki dependent on local security forces, unsure allies and stagnant oil industry
Issue 858, 24 July 2009. more

Kurdistan risk increases as threats to northern Iraq stability multiply

The withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq over the next 12 months presents Kurdistan with its greatest political risk since the end of the four-year KDP-PUK civil war in 1998. The prospect of the US military no longer guaranteeing the Kurdish/Iraqi peace heads a long list of negative factors that are competing to undermine the KRG region’s stability and end its enviable recent track record in terms of lack of violence.
Issue 857, 10 July 2009. more

Iraq oil licensing in doldrums after second bid round debacle

Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani may have saved himself from immediate political immolation by sacrificing commercial to political realities in Iraq’s first oil and gas licensing round on 30 June. He enforced a straightjacket of terms on all eight fields demanding a tiny $2/bbl minimum remuneration fee (MRF – the royalty paid to IOCs for each additional barrel produced after cost recovery) regardless of risk, resource profile or technical difficulty. Only BP in partnership with China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) was prepared to go ahead.
Issue 857, 10 July 2009. more

New opposition tests KRG’s democracy

Iraqi Kurdistan has long promoted itself as ‘the other Iraq’, a haven of peace and stability in a country riven with violence. But as the region approaches its most important electoral test since autonomous rule from Erbil started in 1991, opposition is growing to the Kurdistan Regional Government coalition’s huge control, raising questions about the KRG’s commitment to democracy.
Issue 855, 12 June 2009. more

Turks build KRG influence with Heritage Oil merger

Genel Enerji’s Heritage Oil deal represents an important first step in the consolidation of Kurdistan’s oil sector. GSN’s soundings suggest the deal isn’t politically motivated, but it will still serve to reinforce the trend of growing Turkish commercial influence in the region, which could be the precursor to warmer political relations.
Issue 855, 12 June 2009. more

Doing business in Iraq (really): IOCs prepare to rough it in Baghdad bid round

Bid award ceremonies lasting two days will begin early on 29 June, drawing unprecedented numbers of IOCs to Baghdad to participate in a series of eight sequential bids for oil and gas fields. The round’s timing means that IOCs’ engagement in Iraq must get very real, very quickly, with this round of bidding expected to be followed by months of horse-trading over terms and farm-ins. Though Baghdad has become a far less dangerous city than it was before the ‘surge’, and IOCs will be cantoned into a narrow security zone, the recent upsurge in violence makes this a bid round unlike few others. GSN continues its systematic coverage of Iraqi security and energy issues by examining the modalities of the round.
Issue 854, 29 May 2009. more

Also see  Issue 854, 29 May 2009. Maintaining security at MOO; Baghdad International Airport security; More aggressive’ Iraqi parliament cranks up pressure on Shahristani

Payment terms unclear for Kurdistan oil exports

Kurdistan oil was set to start flowing through Iraq’s northern export pipeline as GSN went to press, a range of sources said, including to one of the international companies whose field is covered by a recent compromise deal between the federal Ministry of Oil (MOO) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)’s Natural Resources Ministry. And yet, thanks to a determination on both sides not to compromise on fundamental issues of principle, it is still unclear how the exporting IOCs will be paid.
Issue 854, 29 May 2009. more

Moving from ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ security, Iraq pins hopes on fragile economic renaissance

The Maliki government faces a daunting task in the last year of its present mandate: not only must it maintain security improvements while its own forces replace departing Coalition troops, it must also create an economic renaissance in the teeth of a harsh fiscal squeeze. Failure on either count will lead to the unravelling of the current fragile peace which holds the promise of a normal future for its citizens.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009.more

Heritage discovery highlights high stakes oil gamble

Heritage Oil Corporation’s announcement on 6 May of a discovery in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) zone, with oil in place of between 2.3 bbls and 4.2bn bbls, eloquently demonstrated why international oil companies (IOCs) from minnows to supermajors are prepared to take huge risks to participate in Iraq’s hydrocarbons sector. With an estimated recovery factor of 50%-70%, the Miran West field could be the 13th largest in Iraq. The largest is West Qurna-2 near Basra, a global-scale giant with estimated reserves of 15bn bbls.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009. more

Power struggles undermine Maliki’s efforts to reach Iraq’s Sunni exiles

With an election looming, and continued Shia and Kurdish opposition, Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s efforts to bring Sunnis into the political fold are proving difficult and costly. Sunnis are complaining that Baghdad is inconsistent, and at times unfair, in its approach to Awakening and Sons of Iraq groups across the country – creating potential flashpoints if these former opponents feel abandoned by their recent allies.
Issue 852, 1 May 2009. more

Iraqi insurgents: the Baath’s surviving foreign missions

When Saddam Hussein’s regime fell in 2003, a sizeable portion of the Arab Socialist Baath Party leadership fled to Syria, Jordan and other regional states. Jihadist fighters have travelled to Iraq from Arabian Peninsula sites such as Saudi Arabia or Yemen, or repressive Arab states such as Tunisia, Syria and Libya, but the leadership and moneymen of the Iraqi insurgency have largely moved in the opposite direction, falling back on Baath Party structures and refugee communities inside an equally broad range of neighbouring states.
Issue 852, 1 May 2009. more

Risk management report

GSN Risk Grade — E/5: Maliki in charge for now, mobilising security forces and investors to rebuild state
Issue 852, 1 May 2009. more

An evolving Sadrist movement survives to fight another day

The cadre of politicians that loosely follow Moqtada Al-Sadr’s leadership did surprisingly well in the provincial elections, given they were largely written off as being politically splintered and militarily humbled after 18 months of pummelling by government forces, operated by their rivals and supported by the United States. The Sadrist Independent Free Trend won 41 of the 314 seats contested in Baghdad and nine Shia provinces of southern Iraq. By comparison, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) secured only 50 seats despite its extensive media campaign and lavish distribution of largesse.
Issue 849, 13 March 2009.more

Also see Issue 827, 18 April 2008. Maliki’s move against Sadr: high risk for (so far) low reward in the ‘lung of Iraq’

MerchantBridge launches equity fund as ISX emerges

London-based investment firm MerchantBridge launched the Mesopotamia Equity Fund (MEF) at the end of February to invest solely in the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), which despite Iraq’s political crises has been the best performing bourse in the region of late. MerchantBridge’s Dr Buddy Soubra, who is one of three MEF investment committee members, told GSN “it will concentrate on listed securities in three main sectors, including banking, tourism, and industry.”
Issue 849, 13 March 2009. more

Baghdad makes concessions to IOCs in this round

The Ministry of Oil (MOO) has made significant concessions to international oil companies considering participation in the first oil and gas licensing round, which is scheduled for June. However, the details of the revised model contract that was thrashed out by MOO officials and IOC executives at a mid-February meeting in Istanbul remain hazy on many points. London-based Iraqi petroleum consultant Dr Hussain Al-Chalabi told GSN that terms remained vague, despite recent clarifications. “The contract can’t be clear in the current environment, the question will be the same,” Chalabi said. “The contract has to be guaranteed by the law and the law is not there yet.”
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more

UN report says growing unemployment threatens Iraq’s hard-won ‘stability’

International supporters of Iraq’s reconstruction are again seeking to address the major economic and social problems that tended to fall from view – at least outside Iraq – during the peak period of the insurgency. The major double-digit unemployment rate, especially among young men, could undermine long-term security and social stability, a United Nations report says.
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more

Iraq’s ‘astonishing’ provincial elections mask fundamental tensions in politics and oil

With the provincial elections successfully and peacefully out of the way, Nouri Al-Maliki’s Daawa Party appears stronger, and Iraq appears more stable than at any time since the invasion. But the advances are fragile, with fundamental tensions unresolved and the task of developing the country’s oil wealth facing mounting complications.
Speaking at a reception for the Amar International Charitable Foundation at the House of Commons on 10 February, UK Secretary of State for Justice Jack Straw described Iraq’s 31 January provincial elections as “astonishing”. Ex-premier Tony Blair’s former foreign secretary praised the sight of Iraqis “creating their own future” with a peaceful change in government at a regional and local level. Straw’s comments reflected the post-election mood, and his comments reflected more than just the wishful thinking of a British politician anxious to justify policy in Iraq.
Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more

Trade unionists under fire in Basra

Local trade unionists were targeted by the Iraqi military for leading a “peaceful” demonstration on 28 January in Basra, the Petrochemical Workers’ Union of Basra (PWUB) has reported. The protest was held to demand payment of wage arrears owed by State Company for Petrochemical Industries (SCPI).
Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more

Kuwaiti border made more secure as the state returns to southern Iraq

Plenty of security concerns persist in the northern Gulf, some obvious, others less so – for example, Kuwait is increasingly concerned about the security of its porous Saudi border (GSN 834/6). But there are reasons to be cheerful too, notably on the Iraqi front, where criminality and political manoeuvring remain big actual and potential problems across borders in the region, but where new Iraqi security forces are starting to have an impact on the organised crime culture that has flourished in post-Saddam Iraq.
Issue 846, 30 January 2009. more

Also see Issue 846, 30 January 2009. Iraq’s Kuwait border gets a little less wild

Iraqi and Kuwaiti navies join forces in northern Gulf coalition

Kuwait and Iraq have signed their first formal military agreement since the 1990-91 occupation, as both countries build up their coastal security.
When Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990, the stoutest and longest resistance came from the Kuwaiti Coast Guard (KCG). For the 12 years that separated the 1991 liberation of Kuwait until Saddam’s fall, it was the KCG that was involved in the greatest number of armed clashes and police actions against Iraqi forces. For these reasons, the late December collaborative patrolling agreement between the Iraqi Navy and the KCG is a major step forward, as the first formal military agreement between the two countries since the occupation nearly 18 years ago.
Issue 845, 16 January 2009. more

Diyala blocks give MOO licensing round added political dimension

Among the issues thrown up by the Ministry of Oil (MOO)’s second licensing round, announced on 31 December, is the challenge it poses to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) through Baghdad’s decision to offer exploration permits in the Qamar, Nau Doman and Gilabet oilfields and Khashm Al-Ahmar gas field in upper Diyala province.
Issue 845, 16 January 2009: more

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2008 Archive – Iraq

Iraq's Oil Challenge – special report

Time for the Baghdad government to tackle Iraq’s oil challenge

The political, economic, security and bureaucratic challenges are immense, but Iraq cannot afford to wait any longer before developing its oil industry. It isn’t just that the long-term prospects are vast, with spare production capacity already greater than any other country, including Saudi Arabia. Short-term demands are acute, and Iraq urgentlyneeds oil revenues to continue its tortuous journey back to normality.
Issue 844, 29 December 2008. Iraq’s Oil Challenge (PDF)

Risk management report

GSN Risk Grade — D/4: Politicking preoccupies leaders ahead of elections, sanctions squeeze economy
Issue 843, 19 December 2008: more

Baghdad OKs Kurdish oil exports, disagreements remain

A pair of deals between the federal government and Kurdistan Regional Government on oil exports and developing the Kirkuk oil field have raised hopes of further strategic compromises, but severe tensions remain between Baghdad and Irbil.
Issue 842, 5 December 2008. more

Capitalisation, project finance among the issues to address as Iraqi banking sector re-emerges

Iraq’s banking sector is looking up as it profits from an upturn in regional trade deals, but local institutions remain under-capitalised, leaving them too weak to play a big role in the large-scale financing deals expected to materialise as reconstruction accelerates. Some consolidation is needed to address this challenge, bankers told GSN.
Issue 842, 5 December 2008. more

Also see Issue 842, 5 December 2008: Baghdad still largely off-cover

January elections point to new Iraqi order

Iraq is to hold its much-anticipated – and delayed – provincial elections on 31 January, with 444 seats to be contested by a growing number of political groups. The polls could set the tone of Iraqi politics for years to come, to an even greater extent than Barack Obama’s investiture in Washington eleven days before.
Issue 841, 21 November 2008. more

Oil offers lifeline as Iraq’s Maysan province is recovered by government

Maysan province provides a pointer to the evolution of politics and security under Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, in the Bush administration’s last months, where huge resources are needed to assist the traumatised, impoverished population in arguably Iraq’s most under-developed and wildest province. The biggest boost could come from hydrocarbons, if potential energy developments and the governance needed to make them work for local communities, as well as for Baghdad and international oil companies, can be put in place.
Issue 839, 24 October 2008. more

Return of the ‘million man army’: when will Iraq play a regional security role?

It was only a matter of time before Iraq’s regional defence role returned in some shape or the other, and that day may come sooner than many would have expected, with Baghdad pushing to create a national force that would place over a million Iraqis in uniform, some of them in units loyal to Prime Minister Al-Maliki, and aiming to snuff out domestic threats.
Issue 838, 10 October 2008. more

Iraqi chatter turns to coup risk speculation

Although the word ‘coup’ has been thrown around regularly in Baghdad since 2004, it has typically related to an imagined American step to seize direct control of the government once again by ousting elected leaders. Now, for the first time since Saddam Hussein’s fall, the prospect of a slow-burning military takeover of politics is re-emerging as a credible threat. The question vexing decision-makers in Washington DC and, indeed, in Baghdad is whether growing military power will eventually threaten Iraq’s fledgling democracy.
Issue 838, 10 October 2008. more

Communal politics surges as Kurdish/Shia alliance breaks down in Iraq

The western media remain focused on the prospects for US troop drawdowns and the Status of Forces Agreement, but on the ground it is the Arab/Kurdish confrontation that threatens to have even greater long-term significance, as federal troops and Peshmerga face off in northern cities, and a new Sunni politics emerges.
Issue 837, 26 September 2008. more

Kurds squeezed in Al-Maliki’s power play

The Iraqi parliament on 24 September finally passed the Provincial Powers Bill. The hotly contested legislation must still be approved by the senior leadership, but even a concerted rearguard action by opponents such as Kurdish federal President Jalal Talabani and his allies in the Shia Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, represented by federal Vice President Adil Abdelmahdi, will be hard-pressed to block the law this time round.
Issue 837, 26 September 2008. more

More Iraqi contracts for US firms

US construction company Perini Corporation has been awarded work worth $170m from the US Army Corps of Engineers (Usace) in Iraq to provide its blast-resistant overhead coverage systems (OCS).
Issue 837, 26 September 2008. more

Cabinet agrees to award its first major contract to Shell

In a deal said to be worth around $4bn, the government has agreed to award Royal Dutch Group a contract to capture and use flared gas in the southern region of Basra. This represents the first deal signed between the government’s South Oil Company, responsible for developing southern oil fields, and a western oil company since the US-led invasion in 2003.
Issue 836, 15 September 2008. more

Analysis: Iraqi troops tackle the Diyala problem

An Iraqi-led operation in Diyala province shows how Baghdad’s most intractable opponents are being squeezed. Operation Bashaer Al-Khair (Omens of Prosperity) kicked off three days earlier than anticipated in Diyala province, but otherwise came as no surprise. After other supposedly intractable security blackspots had been tackled this year – first Basra, then Baghdad’s Sadr City, then Mosul and Amarah – Diyala was possibly the most difficult challenge yet. Deep sectarian and ethnic rifts there have resulted in Iraq’s highest per capita death rate at a time when most other governorates are seeing rapid improvement in security.
Issue 836, 15 September 2008. more

Maliki’s stronger state ready to deal with IOCs as Iraqi oil industry remakes itself again

Nothing is certain in Iraq, but MOO seems poised to sign its first technical service agreements, marking a significant step forward for the oil industry. Where IOCs go after that is unclear, with oil at $130/bbl and Prime Minister Al-Maliki unexpectedly building Iraq’s first significant post-invasion political career by imposing his faction on pre-2003 government structures and promoting a ‘strong state’.
Issue 832, 30 June 2008. more

Iraq’s oil law: Kurds suggest greater pragmatism

Canada’s Talisman Energy has signed two contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government, continuing the momentum of the KRG’s efforts to draw in international oil companies.
Issue 832, 30 June 2008. more

Northern Iraq: Canadian contracts underwritten by ‘social responsibility’ payments

Talisman Energy Inc has bought into a production-sharing contract for the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Block K44, acquiring a 40% stake in the Kalar-Bawanoor block near Halabja.
Issue 832, 30 June 2008. more

IOCs tune into Iraqi security as government cleans up in the south

With political and security risks delicately entwined in almost every major oil or gas field, IOCs are looking towards a blend of security services and stakeholder engagement to manage the risks of market entry. A cleanup of policing in the oil industry will help.
Issue, 831 13 June 2008. more

PM’s position strengthens as Maliki wins several rounds in fight against Sadr for the south

On the back of his violent march into the south, Nouri Al-Maliki’s adroit use of force has helped raise the premier from the political dead. By taking on heavyweight opponents the premier is altering the balance of forces in the south while building up his national power base to an extent that seemed inconceivable just one year ago.
Issue 829, 16 May 2008. more

Majors and MOO play cat & mouse over contracts

Parts of Sadr City may be in flames and mystery still surrounds the kidnapped Ministry of Finance consultants, but Baghdad is witnessing an upturn in business visitors with international oil companies leading the way, as the big five majors enter the final stages of talks on proposals to develop fields under the Ministry of Oil (MOO)’s much-vaunted technical support agreements (TSAs) and other IOCs are waiting in the wings.
Issue 828, 2 May 2008. more

Also see Issue 828, 2 May 2008. Prequalified IOCs for the first licensing round

Maliki’s move against Sadr: high risk for (so far) low reward in the ‘lung of Iraq’

The offensive against Shia rivals in Basra did not go as Prime Minister Maliki had hoped. Coalition troops had to relieve pressure on his fighters, some of whom performed well and many others very badly. Coalition commander David Petraeus’ report to Congress was undermined by unedifying images of urban conflict and faction-fighting, but Maliki may yet emerge stronger if he has succeeded in undermining Moqtada Al-Sadr as the battle for southern Iraq and national predominance continues in the run up to next October’s provincial elections.
Issue 827, 18 April 2008. more

Also see Issue 827, 18 April 2008. War against the Sadrists

What future for Sons of Iraq?

The Maliki government and its allies face a dilemma in dealing with the Awakening Councils, the US-fostered Sunni tribal alliances that have helped to clear out foreign jihadists and quieten domestic Sunni insurgencies in provinces that seemed previously to be beyond saving. These groups – now to be called the Sons of Iraq – are eager to integrate into the national army and police, but the Shia-dominated central government has yet to hold out a welcoming hand.
Issue 827, 18 April 2008. more

Muted finance prospects for Iraq and Kurdistan

Iraq’s massive need for private capital to rebuild its smashed and outdated infrastructure shows little sign of being met, according to a range of financiers and insurers canvassed by GSN.
Issue 826, 4 April 2008. more

Al-Maliki looks weak as Basra cease-fire leaves militias unquelled

Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s attempt to curb the rising power of Jaish Al-Mahdi (JAM) militias in Basra - which led to a week of violence and approximately 500 deaths in the city – illustrates that opponents of the Office of the Martyr Sadr (OMS) continue to underestimate its importance and that of its leader Moqtada Al-Sadr.
Issue 826, 4 April 2008. more

Kurds confront the enemy without and weaknesses within

Kurdish leaders are in bullish mood, but according to GSN’s soundings in Iraq and beyond, disputes with Baghdad and Ankara, and serious questions about the inadequacies of KRG governance, threaten the sustainability of what has, until now, been a heartening success story.
Issue 825, 14 Mar 2008. more

Kurdish governance issues: dissidents mention the ‘c’ word

An argument increasingly doing the rounds in Washington – that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and its supporters naturally argue against strongly – has it that both of the main Kurdish political parties, which formed a united government in 2005, are highly centralised nepotistic organisations, and this is impacting negatively on the way the region is run.
Issue 825, 14 Mar 2008. more

Iran continues its penetration of Iraq, and woos Moqtada towards Qom

With Moqtada Al-Sadr under intense pressure to unleash his militiamen from their six-month truce which expired in late February, Iran’s hand is growing noticeably stronger in Iraq. The trend was visible in Tehran’s high-handed decision to walk away from a long-overdue third round of trilateral talks with Iraq and the United States. Iran may return to the negotiating table – and it will do so from a position of growing assurance.
Issue 824, 29 Febuary 2008. more

Iraq caught between ‘Green Zone’ thinking and ‘Red Zone’ ambition

Many analyses of Iraq’s security situation and the question of whether recent improvements will deliver lasting benefits are based on ‘Green Zone’ thinking – perhaps the only perspective available to those responsible for making and implementing policy. So when Zain Iraq general manager Ali Dahwi called for “security through growth” at the Iraq Development Program (IDP)’s mid-February Defence, Security and Communications Summit in Dubai, most of the private security company representatives found his analysis hopelessly optimistic. Ironically, Dahwi had portrayed his remarks as originating from a harder, less varnished perspective.
Issue 824, 29 Febuary 2008. more

Surge success means even greater pressure on Iraqis to look to their own devices

The USA is committed to providing long-term military and economic support to help put the fractured post- Saddam state back together, but local politicians are looking beyond the Pax Americana to assure their futures.
Issue 822, 1 Feb 2008. more

 

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