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KRG awards more licences as Baghdad fumes
The Kurdistan Regional Government shows no sign of slowing its drive to license as much territory to IOCs as quickly as it can.
Having awarded 11 production-sharing contracts (PSCs) to nine companies in November and declared a dozen new areas open for bidding, including high-risk and frontier blocks, KRG Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami has said more deals will be signed soon. “I think we are ready to sign a couple more at the moment. Probably some time in December we may sign a couple of contracts,” he told a 28 November press briefing.
Issue 819, 7 December 2007. 
more
Also see Issue 819, 7 December 2007. KRG’s oil rush: blocks map filling fast
US intelligence casts doubt on Iraq blowback risk to neighbours
Across the US intelligence community there is a recognition that the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq is decreasing – to be replaced by Iraqi jihadists. This trend suggests that following the US-led surge’s successes the Iraqi conflict will enter a new phase, where the threat of ‘blowback’ may be reduced for the Gulf states but where Iraq itself remains in civil war and Iraqi-born jihadists emerge as a global threat.
Issue 818, 23 Nov 2007.
more
Hakim faction cleans up its act, looks to clean up its rivals
Iraq is stabilising but it would only take a major Salafyist outrage or a full-blown Shia civil war to upset the delicate improvement.
As a new International Crisis Group report observes, Shia groups are now the critical players in Iraqi politics, led by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI).
Issue 818, 23 November 2007. more
Turkey rattles its sabre, but the ‘deep state’ shies away from conflict as first resort in northern Iraq
Despite Ankara’s sabre-rattling, Turks are unlikely to march on Irbil as has been widely suggested in recent weeks. Following on from our report from Irbil in issue 816, GSN has taken more soundings of opinion over the threat to Iraqi Kurdistan. In Ankara and Washington, the informed consensus was that the sabre-rattling sounding ominously along the Iraq/Turkey border is not the real thing.
Issue 817, 9 November 2007. more
Kurdistan strives for its destiny while Turkish troops gather and Baghdad grumbles
Kurdistan is threatened on all sides, but in Erbil there is an energetic drive to seize a moment of historical destiny. The stakes are high as the regional government races to secure its economic and political independence within the structure of a federal Iraq, GSN reports from the KRG capital.
Issue 816, 26 October 2007. more
Northern Iraq: KRG budget tank runs dry as oil projects begin
The roadside stacks of plastic petrol cans in the main cities under Kurdistan Regional Government control are an eloquent testament to the financial and economic challenges facing the location of possibly one of the world’s greatest untapped oil bonanzas. This is where the KRG’s road users purchase their fuel. There is no network of petrol stations in the country, nor does it have a refinery of any meaningful size. Thanks to Saddam Hussein’s deliberate policy of restricting development in the region there is no infrastructure for the distribution or export of hydrocarbons.
Issue 816, 26 October 2007. more
Unlikely property play in KRG
As a haven of peace and stability in an otherwise violence-wracked country, the Kurdistan Regional Government region has successfully projected itself as ‘the other Iraq’. An eloquent testimony to the region’s success has been an estimated 20-fold increase in property prices since 2003, driven by rising local incomes and the migration of businesses and wealthy individuals north of the ‘Green Line’.
Issue 816, 26 October 2007. more
Iraq has still to overcome Arab, Russian debt issues
Debt deals with major Gulf Co-operation Council creditors and any agreement over compensation payments dating back to the 1990-91 invasion of Kuwait remain elusive, but there is hope that outstanding issues linked to Iraq’s Paris Club deal can be resolved, according to Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) governor Sinan Al-Shibibi.
Issue 816, 26 October 2007. more
Petraeus sets up up a huge gamble on Iraqi security with a deadpan delivery
The report presented to the United States Congress by Multinational Forces Iraq commander General David Petraeus on 10 September suggested that the withdrawal of forces from Iraq would be a slow, deliberate process, tied to security conditions rather than a fixed timetable. But the implications of even a slow drawdown of forces are dramatic: it is clear that US military force levels in Iraq will probably never be as high again. By summer 2008, the USA will be forced to thin out its presence in Sunni Arab areas in northern and western Iraq, gambling that tribal engagement will create sustainable security.
Issue 814, 28 September 2007. more
Risk Management Report
GSN Risk Grade — E/3: Pressure on Maliki mounts, Petraeus sees partial troop withdrawal ‘next summer’
Issue 812, 14 September 2007. more
Another long hot summer for Iraq’s oil legislators
There was progress in early summer with an apparent deal on oil revenue sharing, but the passage of Iraq’s main hydrocarbons law remains highly problematic.
Issue 811, 3 August 2007. more
Open letter to the Iraqi parliament on the hydrocarbons law
Some 108 Iraqi oil professionals, and legal and financial experts signed a letter sent to the Iraqi Council of Representatives (parliament) on 16 July tackling questions arising from the draft oil and gas law. The Iraqi experts group observed the following:
Issue 811, 3 August 2007. more
Kurds reveal new blocks
In late June the KRG published the final draft of the Kurdish Region Petroleum Law. It is expected to soon be reviewed by the Kurdistan National Assembly for approval. The KRG also published the details of some 40 new blocks and their co-ordinates.
Issue 811, 3 August 2007. more
US administration reshapes Iraq policy personnel, policy, ambitions
Donald Rumsfeld retired hurt, Scooter Libby is serving time, but some neoconservatives remain to wage their ideological battles inside the Washington Beltway – many of them clustered around Dick Cheney. The influence of the Office of the Vice President (OVP) cannot be overstated, even if the Iraq policy Cheney was so instrumental in delivering is in tatters.
Issue 811, 3 August 2007. more
Iraq’s new media restrictions
The Iraqi Interior Ministry in May issued a new policy that restricts journalists’ access to explosion sites in an apparent attempt to cover-up Iraq’s bloody reality.
Issue 809, 6 July 2007. more
Trilateral talks rattle Gulf states while concealing complex Iranian dynamics
Talks involving Iran, Iraq and the USA have awakened memories of an older geopolitical order, when the GCC states were lower down the regional pecking order and two giant dictatorships vied for Washington’s attentions. As Bush seeks ‘withdrawal with honour’ from the Iraq morass, US policy becomes ever more schizophrenic.
Issue 807, 8 June 2007. more
Iraq looks to empower its tortured grassroots with cash to speed reconstruction
The government is trusting to decentralisation in a bid to unblock spending hitches, while information shortages, insecurity and intimidated officials all hamper the reconstruction process.
Issue 807, 8 June 2007. more
Iraqi Shiite politics in play, from Al-Hakim’s Houston hospital bed to Basra’s mean streets
While Moqtada Al-Sadr bides his time and senior US officials scream ever louder about the extent of Iranian influence and covert activities, Shia politics is entering another dangerous period of flux across Iraq, with the new-look SIIC fearing for its leader’s health. Meanwhile in Basra, the governor and Sadrist and other opponents are preparing for a violent summer conflict to control this key economic area.
Issue 806, 25 May 2007. more
Saudis drop Maliki over Iranian ties
There has been a notable downturn in relations between the Iraqi government and Riyadh in recent weeks, with King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz informing US State Department officials that the Kingdom was no longer able to support Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki.
Issue 806, 25 May 2007. more
Basra’s ‘democratic’ politics the prize for warring factions
Outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair was not the only politician to experience an explosive environment in Basra last week. Provincial politics have long been poisonous – a key factor in crippling the UK’s peace-keeping effort – and elections clearly cannot come fast enough for the factions who are seeking to unseat the much-maligned governor Mohammed Al-Waeli and control the economic prize.
Issue 806, 25 May 2007. more
Also see Issue 806, 25 May 2007. Key figures on the Basra Provincial Council
Riyadh unexpectedly agrees to follow Paris Club debt pattern
In a surprise reversal of its previous policy not to provide aid or debt relief to Baghdad, Saudi Arabia has agreed to forgive 80% of Iraq’s $15bn-plus bilateral debt, in line with the Paris Club norm. But it’s not quite a done deal yet.
Issue 804, 27 Apr 2007. more
Baghdad’s spying game hots up, draws in GCC
Following the ejection of Saddam Hussein’s army from Kuwait in 1991, Gulf Co-operation Council fears turned to the creation of an Iranian-dominated Shia area bordering Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Sixteen years on, GCC states increasingly feel that this scenario has come to pass. Iraq is not virgin territory for Iranian intelligence, which had an on-the-ground presence and strong working understanding of the country before 2003. The absence of border controls allowed an estimated 200,000 Iraqi Shia refugees to return from long-term exile. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence directorate and Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) are believed to have developed a strong presence through front companies, charities, and diplomatic offices. This presence is now embedded.
Issue 804, 27 Apr 2007. more
New intelligence agency comes under growing pressure
With Saudi diplomats too cautious to establish a full-time diplomatic presence in Baghdad without American protection, Riyadh’s intelligence apparatus has been reduced to looking at Iraq from abroad.
Issue 804, 27 Apr 2007. more
Better news for Iraqi oil
The risks remain daunting – as underlined by GSN’s recent Risk management report – but oilmen with big appetites for risk are talking very positively about Iraq’s prospects following a spate of good news.
Issue 804, 27 Apr 2007. more
Irony reigns as chemical weapons return to Iraq
The 16 March triple car bombings in Fallujah and Ramadi, each accompanied by a release of noxious chlorine gas, brought the number of crude chemical attacks in Iraq to five since 28 January.
Issue 802, 30 March 2007. more
Orange juice diplomacy holds a glimmer of hope for the region
Iraq is far from turning a corner in its struggle to restore a semblance of peace and implement workable federal governance arrangements, but the Baghdad security conference did represent a potential start of a process to reduce tensions in the region. GSN seeks to answer some of the most frequently asked questions about the current dangerous turn in the region’s geopolitics.
Issue 801, 16 Mar 2007. more
Iraq’s hydrocarbons law: multinational conspiracy or IOC incentive?
Party political points were scored, mainly over Prime Minister Tony Blair’s non-appearance at the British Parliament’s 24 January debate on the Middle East – an afternoon filled with unusually reflective arguments that also highlighted the unusual alliances forged by the war in Iraq (veteran left-winger Jeremy Corbyn making common cause with Tory grandee Michael Ancram, to name but one odd couple). Little British arguments were largely subsumed by a mature debate on what had gone wrong in the region, in what was a worryingly rare discussion of the most pressing foreign policy problems for Her Majesty’s government and so many other stakeholders in Iraq’s future.
Issue 798, 2 February 2007. more
TOP
Redefining Sunni role is essential to Iraq’s eventual stabilisation
Whatever happens to the Iraq Study Group’s report – key elements of the Baker/Hamilton team’s much vaunted prognosis of the state of Iraq and its future direction could, after all, just be ignored by President George W Bush – the debate over Iraq’s future in the United States suggests a corner has been turned in thinking on a conflict that has gone so badly wrong for many of its original sponsors.
Issue 796, 22 December 2006. more
Iraq’s new generation banks look to achieve maximum reach with the minimum damage
The security situation remains too dire for most banks to think about transacting serious in-country business, but several foreign banks who are active in Iraq were bullish about the prospects for 2007, when canvassed on their plans for the future by GSN.
Issue 796, 22 December 2006. more
Rescuing Iraq: key regional players seize control of the change agenda
Syria has responded to Iraqi overtures and a tripartite dialogue with Iran is getting under way, even before the much touted report from the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group has landed on White House desks. The diplomatic dexterity of key regional powers shows the limits to US influence even as it opens up possible solutions
Issue 794, 24 November 2006. more
What’s changed in US Iraq policy
President George W Bush is expected to send a $130bn-160bn “emergency” spending request for Iraq to Congress early next year, a move that can only provoke further argument about the shape and length of US involvement and its effects on the fiscal health of the US.
Issue 794, 24 November 2006. more
Oil at the heart of the power struggle in disintegrating Iraq
Efforts to pass a new law oil law are critical to the prospects for restoring a coherent state and improving governance in a fractured – and corrupt – polity.
Issue 793, 10 November 2006. more
Election restores pragmatism to US handling of Iraq, environment
There could hardly be a clearer signal than the appointment of Robert Gates as US secretary of state for defence that George W Bush has heard American voters loud and clear, following the crushing mid-term election defeat of the president’s Republican party.
Issue 793, 10 November 2006. more
With success out of reach, UK puts a brave face on failure
Suddenly, withdrawal from Iraq has become a subject to be discussed in polite British political company, with even Prime Minister Tony Blair dropping hints about the feasibility of departure before the country has become the model Middle Eastern democracy the invaders once promised.
Issue 792, 27 October 2006. more
Iraqi Kurds make oil play, paralysed MOO looks on
The Kurdistan Regional Government has issued an attractive new oil law, but constitutionally nothing is clear – and news disputes beckons between an increasingly assertive KRG and the beleaguered central government in Baghdad, focusing on a battle over ownership rights to Iraq’s northern oilfields.
Issue 790, 29 September 2006. more
With Zarqawi dead, senior Al-Qaeda leaders try to regain control over Iraqi cells
Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi’s death has shaken up the murky world of Iraqi insurgency. His disappearance made for positive short-term newsflow for the USA and new Iraqi government, but the long-term benefits are less clear.
Issue 784, 23 June 2006. more
Kuwait and Iraq: Uneasy rapprochement
Kuwait welcomed the new Iraqi government and is increasing ties to its former enemy. Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah wished Iraq’s new cabinet “success in serving the brotherly Iraqi people” and pointedly noted that he hoped that its members would succeed in “closing their ranks and using their capabilities in building Iraq.”
Issue 784, 23 June 2006. more
Iraq offers training opportunities for Gulf jihadists, but it may not be Afghanistan mark two
Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki announced the “elimination” of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi on 8 June, as GSN went to press. But even if the Jordanian-born jihadist is dead, Iraq’s security situation is likely to remain dire, with the potential for jihadist overspill into neighbouring states. As GSN 782 noted, this complex phenomenon may not unfold as analysts have predicted over the last three years – and there are signs that the consequences may not be as dramatic as pessimists fear should ‘blowback’ blight the GCC and wider world.
Issue 784, 23 June 2006. more
Risk management Report
GSN Risk Grade — E/3: Lack of crucial ministers weighs on Maliki, Kurdistan opens to energy investment
Issue 783, 9 Jun 2006. more
The Al-Maliki administration
Iraq’s tough-talking new Shiite Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki named his new government amid a wave of Baghdad violence, but three important posts – the ministries of defence, national security and interior – unfilled after Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish leaders failed to agree on who should fill them. For now Al-Maliki will oversee the Interior Ministry – providing a platform from which to put his hard man image into practise. He has appointed Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Salam Zikam Ali Al-Zubaie as caretaker at the Ministry of Defence and the experienced Kurdish DPM Barham Salih to oversee National Security.
Issue 782, 26 May 2006. more
Blowback revisited: Jihadist overspill from Iraq seen to be highly complex and already under way
US military sources in Iraq see the potential for jihadist overspill into the Gulf as a ‘misunderstood’ phenomenon.
Issue 782, 26 May 2006. more
Iraqi debt deal nears mid-summer close
The change of government shouldn’t affect Baghdad’s commercial debt deal, which will be finalised this summer.
Issue 782, 26 May 2006. more
Surrounded by enemies within and without, Iraq’s Kurds do it their own way
As neighbours to the north and east mass troops and shell PKK positions inside Iraqi Kurdistan, and Shia militias move into Kirkuk, Iraq’s one relative haven of calm and stability is facing up to a new kind of threat. Some villagers have been forced to flee their homes after shelling and incursions by Iranian forces targeting positions held by fighters allied to the Turkish-based Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), while Turkey has sent an additional 40,000 troops to its own Kurdish areas.
Issue 781, 12 May 2006. more
Appointment of Al-Maliki, tough but fair, means Iraqi government formation can begin
Ibrahim Al-Jaafari’s removal in favour of fellow Daawa stalwart Jawad Al-Maliki should boost the stalled process of government formation. The clock is now ticking with Maliki obliged to name his ministers within one month of his 21 April appointment, and there are more deadlines to come, with the cabinet charged with reviewing the constitution over the next four months. Maliki has many of the qualities needed to navigate these difficult waters, and to help change the direction of Iraqi politics for the better.
Issue 780, 28 Apr 2006. more
Spectre of civil war adds to pressures to make federal Iraq work
Even Donald Rumsfeld has talked of civil war, although the pugnacious US secretary of defence refuses to countenance it as an option – just as before he refused to countenance hundreds of thousands of ‘boots on the ground’ and other options for Iraq. Descent into civil war is an option, even if it is far from inevitable. Avoiding the Armageddon scenario demands a degree of maturity – and selflessness – from leaders, and consensus from Kurdistan to the Iranian border on the need for sticking to a workable form of federalism.
Issue 777, 10 March 2006. more
Askariyya bombing leaves all sides clutching at Kalashnikovs but the new Iraqi politics intact
The shrine bombing was an awful event but Iraq won’t hurtle into civil war tomorrow or the day after. However, volatile players are making the running in the protracted government-building process, and even if foreign fighters are in retreat, there are no signs that much of Iraq can transcend the descent into rule by militia.
Issue 776, 24 February 2006. more
Salafyists in decline, insurgency continues unabated
While the ultra-radical, foreign-led Salafyist resistance seems to be in decline – Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and his acolytes may have less than 1,000 men at arms and a fast-declining support base within the Sunni triangle – the domestic Sunni insurgency retains a very real force, with perhaps more than 20,000 active fighters, which must be accommodated if Iraq is to have peace.
Issue 776, 24 February 2006. more
How much does the IMF really matter to Iraq?
Resurgent oil income, even at today’s depressed production levels, does not offer the most favourable context for long-term adherence to an economic reform programme whose main incentive condition will probably be fulfilled within months. The IMF is concerned that the new Iraqi government may depart from the agreed programme once it has achieved its initial goals.
Issue 776, 24 February 2006. more
As factions battle to control the Ministry of Oil, a new Iraqi politics emerges
The sacking of Ibrahim Bahr Al-Ulloum threw a spotlight on the Islamist Al-Fadhila Party’s emergence as a key player in the emerging new Iraqi politics. Coming from the Sadrist tradition, Al-Fadhila is not the kind of party Western advocates of the 2003 invasion expected to inherit post-Saddam Iraq, but it is the sort of partner they must work with if US and other foreign forces are to have a hope of withdrawing.
Issue 775, 10 February 2006. more
Iraqi oil sector outlook: limited progress expected as new government faces major obstacles
There are hopes that major progress will finally be made during 2006 in setting up the institutional framework for a reinvigorated Iraqi hydrocarbons sector. But as a highly placed advisor told GSN, this year will probably see only the tentative start of addressing the myriad outstanding issues holding the industry back.
Issue 775, 10 February 2006. more
Ambiguity surrounds Kurdish deals
Norwegian minnow Det Norske Oljeselskap (DNO) has again come under pressure from Baghdad over its drilling operations in northern Iraq, which started in November having been agreed with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), but not with the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad.
Issue 775, 10 February 2006. more
Iraq makes progress with debt restructuring, as IMF normalises relationship
The IMF’s approval of a formal standby programme provides a strong signal that the international community is returning to Iraq, at the same time helping to consolidate Baghdad’s debt restructuring programme. As GSN observes in a second article below, the time for tough spending choices has arrived with the IMF deal also signalling that Iraq must wean itself off foreign aid and pay a large part of its massive security bill.
Issue 774, 27 January 2006. more
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