On the page below you will find a selection of articles from the GSN archive.
Please note that while some of the content is free to access, all items preceded by a padlock symbol (
) require a subscription.
2010 Iraq archive
2008-2009 Iraq archive
2006-2007 Iraq archive
2005 Iraq archive
2004 Iraq archive
2003 and earlier Iraq archives
Return to main GSN's Iraq page
Select another country
December elections crucial for bedding down governance, Iraqi minister says
Iraq’s next election, choosing members of the first parliament under the new permanent constitution, will be critical to Iraq’s future, ITG Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told GSN.
Issue 770, 25 November 2005. 
more
Syrian complications for Iraqi minister, Bashar in crisis
Recent days have seen renewed focus on the curious role played by Syria. Western officials insist that the Syrian authorities are still turning a blind eye to the trickle of would-be insurgents through Damascus airport and over the Iraqi border into the towns of the Euphrates and Tigris valleys. Iraqi Transitional Government Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has the difficult task of trying to persuade Damascus to act more effectively against this.
Issue 770, 25 November 2005. more
GCC states struggle to find a role in Iraq
The Gulf Co-operation Council states are trying – and failing – to etch out a role for themselves in the stabilisation of Iraq, according to GSN’s soundings in Washington and Iraq.
Issue 769, 11 November 2005. more
Profits questions and consolidation for private security firms lifted by the ‘Baghdad bubble’
Iraq has provided a bonanza for private security contractors, providing huge financing flows to underwrite corporate development. With Sandline veteran Tim Spicer now espousing the benefits of corporate governance, a period of consolidation beckons as the cannier PSCs reinvest the huge profits Iraq has delivered.
Issue 769, 11 November 2005. more
Kurds push ahead with economic autonomy in the reshaped Iraq
Although Iraqis have voted to approve the new constitutional framework, Sunni objections mean further changes to the document cannot be ruled out. But the Kurdish minority is not letting such considerations stand in the way of its own ambition to carve out an economically viable homeland, with a key slice of national oil resources.
Issue 768, 28 October 2005. more
Also see Issue 768, 28 October 2005. Kurdish economic initiatives
Blowback time beckons as Saudi Jihadists are squeezed in Iraq
Iraq is the anvil on which a new generation of Saudi jihadists is being forged. There are signs that blowback may be just around the corner in Saudi Arabia, but this time,the Kingdom is preparing for the impact from a new generation of jihadists.
Issue 767, 14 October 2005. more
Also see Issue 767, 14 October 2005. More bad news from Iraq: Arab Jihadists are coming home; How Iraq replaced Saudi as the jihadist focus – for now
The rise of southern Iraq’s Shia militias has enormous consequences for the region’s future
With Shia militias’ capture of key elements of the security forces and worsening tensions in the south prompting a reassessment of the multinational forces’ strategy, and recent analysis by a respected US think tank shows the insurgency is predominantly home grown, the multiple conflicts threatening to submerge the ‘New Iraq’ have a disturbingly local feel to them.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
CSIS downplays foreign role in Iraq’s insurgency and insurgents’ Saudi origins
A new report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has contested official US claims about the size of the foreign component of the Iraqi insurgency and downplayed the influence of Saudis in attacks.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
Traders look towards commercial debt settlement as multilaterals discuss the big picture
The Iraqi authorities have made their starting offer to repurchase and cancel commercial claims. Traders see it as a start in the creation of a new market in distressed debt, within the context of the wider settlement of Iraq’s debts.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
With Iraq’s federal debate flaring, its time to watch opportunist Sadr again
Always quick to pick up on a political trend, opportunist radical cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr has emerged as the key Shia voice opposing the federalist trend in Iraqi politics (GSN 763/9). With Iraq prey to increasing secessionist tendencies, Sadr is arguing for a unitary state – but on his terms. The Baghdad authorities can hardly count on the maverick cleric and his populist supporters to help glue a multi-ethnic Iraq together, during a period when the temptation among Shias to go their own way gets ever stronger.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
The Iraqi oil industry: Searching for substance among the promises
So much was said about global capital’s intentions for Iraq’s oil industry at the time of the US-led invasion; so much remains to do with most IOCs remaining absent from what should be one of the world’s great energy sector opportunities. This summer has seen a small upturn in output, but with the security crisis still weighing heavy on the economy the industry remains on life support. GSN takes stock of the story so far.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. more
Key challenges for an embattled government
The Iraqi Transitional Government and Ministry of Oil face critical challenges in their efforts to revive the oil sector.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. more
Growing fear of Iranian influence in Iraq as Shia dominance cemented by new constitutional draft
Dissolving national boundaries, thriving cross-border activity, and potent Iranian influence on Iraq’s constitutional drafting, security, and governance has led Sunni leaders and Washington policy-makers to ask themselves whether the Islamic Republic will emerge as the belated winners of the1980-88 war. Whether Tehran’s influence is as profound as Iran’s enemies fear, a new era in bilateral relations has begun.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. more
Another potential Iraqi flashpoint: southerners want control of oil
Shia politicians dominate the debate over Iraq’s new constitution, which Washington wants out in August or soon thereafter, but this is not enough for many southern Shiites – they want control over ‘their’ oil resources.
Issue 762, 29 July 2005. more
Iraqi constitutional deadline draws close
With the upturn in suicide bombings adding to the mood of crisis, there is a ray of hope – Iraq may yet have a new constitution in Q3 2005, setting up the next phase of political transformation and giving a boost to the George W Bush administration’s flagging supporters.
Issue 762, 29 July 2005. more
New Iraqi Army’s equipment holdings swell with burgeoning foreign contributions
Training of the New Iraqi Army (NIA)’s personnel may be proceeding slowly, but the new force’s equipment inventories are swelling at a rapid rate. The flow of what the United States calls excess defence articles (EDA) includes many useful contributions of ground and air transport vehicles and communications that will assist with the counter-insurgency.
Issue 762, 29 July 2005. more
Ulloum builds ‘relaunch’ team
Iraqi Transitional Government Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr Al-Ulloum has put key appointees in place at the Ministry of Oil (MOO) and its affiliates, as he attempts to make up time lost over political wrangling to inject new momentum into the moribund industry
Issue 761, 15 July 2005. more
Jordan in u-turn to save relationship with Iraq
King Abdallah has bought himself some breathing space by engineering a rapprochement with an angry Baghdad administration, even doing business with Ahmed Chalabi. But the issues that divided Iraq and Jordan so bitterly in recent months have not been resolved, and with Iraqi Sunnis still rejecting a full role in the political process, Abdallah’s fears of a Shia-dominated neighbour have not abated. While much attention has been paid to a potential flare-up on Iraq’s borders with Syria, relations with the pro-Western Hashemites remain problematic.
Issue 758, 27 May 2005. more
Not all gloom as Iraq’s new government looks to build consensus while conflict rages around them
It should not be around for long, but the Iraq Transitional Government’s torturous formation conceals possible benefits in terms of performance and long-term confidence-building
Issue 758, 27 May 2005. more
Next phase of De-Baathification
The process of government in Iraq may not be made any easier by the fierce de-Baathification and anti-corruption drives that are being launched by the new Iraq Transitional Government. The United Iraq Alliance (UIA)’s various elements are likely to continue their drive – via the Supreme National De-Baathification Commission (SNDC) – to rid ministries of decision-makers with a Baathist pedigree.
Issue 758, 27 May 2005. more
Alse see Issue 756, 29 April 2005. Alleged ‘Baathist Pimpernel’ named
Ulloum at MOO, eventually
Ibrahim Bahr Al-Ulloum has eventually taken over at the Ministry of Oil (MOO) after political jockeying so intense that Transitional Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jafaari went so far as to appoint Ahmed Chalabi as temporary minister until a final decision was made. This strategy helped to concentrate minds, forcing through Ulloum’s appointment.
Issue 758, 27 May 2005. more
Oil output low with promise of only limited upturn
There are signs that exports will eventually resume from the northern oil fields, but exports and production remain low, with the International Energy Agency estimating Iraqi output at 1.81m b/d in March, more than 800,000 b/d below estimated 2.8m b/d maximum capacity.
Issue 756, 29 April 2005. more
Shias haggle with Kurds as politicians eye Iraq’s main prize
When push comes to shove, Iraq’s competing political parties and the communal groups they claim to represent really do not like each other. This truism helps to explain why a new Iraqi Transitional Government (ITG) was only being formed as GSN went to press, despite the early April appointment of an interim ruling troika of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan President Jalal Talabani, Shiite Daawa Party Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari and Sunni National Assembly speaker Hajim Al-Hassani.
Issue 756, 29 April 2005. more
Financing Iraqi trade: limited scope for risk mitigation in a high-risk market
The increased multilateral funding expected now that Iraq’s transitional administration is in place seems essential, as GSN’s soundings suggest that even short-term insurance and trade finance is in very short supply.
Issue 755, 15 April 2005. more
Also see Issue 755, 15 April 2005. Critical role for Trade Bank of Iraq
Iraqi commercial debt manoeuvres
It is not just the growing number of Iraqi government advisors who are seeking to have vital input into the debt restructuring process (GSN 754/15). While Citigroup Global Markets and JP Morgan Securities are acting on the debtor side as joint global co-ordinators for private commercial creditor claims, other banks are seeking to have significant input into a process that is far from reaching a conclusion. A conventional steering committee of London Club commercial creditors has yet to be created, and this could remain some way off.
Issue 755, 15 April 2005. more
Towards a peace agenda: Iraq’s Sunni nationalist rebels want US forces out and a new census
There are some positive indicators coming out of Iraq, with an end to the insurgency conceivably possible if the new leadership in Baghdad can blend internal reassurance with a reassertion of national sovereignty. Sunni nationalists might thus be accommodated, but it remains a tall order.
Issue 754, 25 March 2005. more
The Baathist insurgency’s brains
GSN has gained an inside perspective from US intelligence analysts of the nature of the Syrian/Iraqi ties fuelling the insurgency in post-Saddam Iraq. According to Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) analysts, between 20 and 50 senior leaders make up the Syrian end of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq, comprising a mixture of Iraqi and Syrian Baathists.
Issue 752, 25 February 2005. more
Jaafari needs Kurdish support
Shiite politician Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, finally chosen as prime minister after negotiations within the victorious United Iraqi Alliance Coalition (UIAC) – which took 140 of the 275 national assembly seats in the 30 January elections – will need the support of the 75 Kurdish Alliance MPs if he is to govern effectively (GSN 751/8).
Issue 752, 25 February 2005. more
Shia List dominates elections, with a strong Kurdish bloc and Sunnis left out on a limb
Worst-case scenarios for election-day bloodbaths were averted as Iraq’s democratic opening left its new political elite with an unexpected spring in its step, and the main Shiite list poised to play a dominant role in the new National Assembly, charged with drafting the constitution that should define the shape of the new Iraq.
Issue 751, 11 February 2005. more
Also see Issue 751, 11 February 2005. Limits to election day violence
Polish invasion dividend: delivery begins of helicopters to Iraq
Poland’s strong commitment to the Multinational Forces (MNF) has placed it in pole position to dominate the early arms contracts that have begun to proliferate as the formation of Iraqi security forces accelerates. GSN predicted that this would be the case last September, and the first Polish helicopters ordered in December have begun to arrive in Iraq, signalling the realisation of a $236m deal that is significant by any terms in a diminished Middle East arms market.
Issue 751, 11 February 2005. more
Iraq Energy Outlook
Stuck in the realm of potential, industry hostage to politics, security
Issue 750, 28 January 2005. more
Iraqi oil ministry tries to inject fresh momentum
Despite difficult security conditions – which hinder the activity of foreign companies and leave exports through the northern pipelines at the mercy of insurgents – Iraq’s interim oil minister, Thamer Ghadban is trying to get new projects underway.
Issue 749, 14 January 2005. more
TOP
Risk Management Report
GSN Risk Grade — E: Security/political outlook hinges on elections’ success, international consensus
Issue 748, 22 December 2004. more
Elections whatever the cost in ‘democratic’ Iraq
Despite threatened boycotts, insecurity and calls for a two- or three-month delay, Iraq’s first national elections are still likely to take place on the new polling date of 30 January 2005.
Issue 746, 26 November 2004. more
Washington and Paris each claim vindication over Iraqi debt deal
Just in time to ensure that the balmy ambience of the Sharm El-Sheikh talks would not be soured by sordid money squabbles, Western creditor governments reached a compromise deal on cutting Iraq’s $38.9bn Paris Club debt. Diplomatic ingenuity was on virtuoso display in the package finally pulled together on 21 November, after mediation by German Finance Minister Hans Eichel and five days of haggling.
Issue 746, 26 November 2004. more
Iraqi debt write-off edges ahead with the government desperate for funds
Moves to hammer out a debt deal are much to be welcomed and the IMF has given an upbeat report on the macro-economy, but the bitter reality is that the IIG needs cash now more than debt forgiveness later to stay afloat.
Issue 744, 29 October 2004. more
Also see Issue 744, 29 October 2004. Sarko’ sets out a French debt position
Iraq’s INOC: the IOCs’ dream partner
Their upstream ambitions shunned by OPEC’s traditional elite, the glittering throng of supermajor chairmen and chief executives gathered in Vienna on the back of OPEC’s mid-September meeting could take heart that one potentially huge player might play ball, when Iraqi Interim Oil Minister Thamer Ghadban emphasised his determination to recreate the Iraqi National Oil Company (INOC) to give the “optimum co-operation” to IOCs
Issue 743, 15 October 2004. more
Iraq enters the ‘post-conflict’ period dependent on a risky ballot
The International Monetary Fund’s approval in early October of a $436.3m emergency post-conflict assistance (EPCA) facility pointed to a slow return of multilateral institutions within the security constraints acting on them, but otherwise said little else about Iraq’s longer term direction. Carrying only limited conditionality, the EPCA reflected an understanding that some macroeconomic stability exists in post-Saddam Iraq and that, despite the violence, state structures persist that the Bretton Woods institutions can work with.
Issue 743, 15 October 2004. more
Political uncertainty leaves financial agenda in limbo
Economic reform is stalling as Iran prepares for the May 2005 presidential election and parliament’s new conservative majority shies away from courting controversy that could upset the voters. While Tehran continues to impress international officials with its careful short-term management of public accounts, the political impetus behind structural change to make the economy more competitive and reinforce the financial sector appears to be waning.
Issue 742, 1 October 2004. more
A boom market for defence sales emerges in the ‘new Iraq’
As Gulf defence markets begin to show signs of a post-Saddam slowdown, the one market in the region that will see rapid growth in the coming years remains the new Iraq. For the moment, Iraq’s selective rearmament remains firmly under the control of key Coalition members, led by the USA and including the UK and Australia. However, GSN’s soundings in the Washington security assistance community suggest that the victors are already beginning to worry over the prospects of the post-Saddam spoils.
Issue 741, 17 September 2004. more
Opportunities balanced by risks for Israel in the new Iraq
If a Western-oriented secular Iraq emerges from the current political process, Israel will have finally secured its eastern flank, no longer needing to keep a watchful eye over Iraq’s western Scud launch ‘baskets’. Yet, Tel Aviv’s ongoing struggle with Iran mean that the new Iraq is considered to be no less threatening or unpredictable according to Israel’s securocrats.
Issue 740, 27 August 2004. more
Insurgency will continue but a political process is emerging, painfully
Iraq in five years time will be neither the ‘Jeffersonian democracy’ that the US-led invasion’s neo-conservative intellectual fathers envisaged. However, neither need it become the failed state weighed under by communal and ideological conflict that some nightmare scenarists have suggested
Issue 740, 27 August 2004. more
US clients no more, Iraq’s rulers reaffirm their regional credentials
Iraq is engaging in a novel experience by trying to become an ordinary Arab country. The signals from the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) are gently emitted, but they are unmistakable: Baghdad is taking an approach to the region that is very different from Saddam Hussein and his conquerors. Senior IIG figures are categoric on key issues: they will neither recognise Israel nor contemplate any Qatari-style trade links with the Jewish state unless and until the whole Arab world deems that recognition should be accorded as part of a comprehensive peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. The oil pipeline to Israel is not going to be reopened any time soon.
Issue 739, 23 July 2004. more
Multilaterals move in
Having recognised Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s new Iraqi Interim Government, the World Bank Group (WBG) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are engaged in detailed talks with IIG ministers over financial and technical support.
Issue 739, 23 July 2004. more
‘Sovereignty’ is restored, but much paperwork remains after the IIG’s quickie divorce
The new Iraqi Interim Government stole a couple of days on the international media and terrorists looking to a handover day spectacular to announce the ‘return to sovereignty’.
Issue 738, 9 July 2004. more
Iraq’s debt deal falls foul of new political splits
A proxy war between the USA and those who disapprove of its actions is apparent in high-level brinkmanship over the debt, delaying but not sinking the expected Paris Club deal.
Issue 737, 25 June 2004. more
Thinking positive: Signs of progress amid the chaos in Iraq
Iraq will remain in security chaos well beyond the 30 June handover, but with the interim government and a new UN resolution in place, the bones of a new political structure are coming into view.
Issue 736, 11 June 2004. more
Prisoner abuse in Iraq: it’s not just another passing domestic news story
Rumsfeld’s Pentagon has inflicted real damage on the White House as Iraq’s transition and the US campaigning season begins. The prisoner abuse issue has the potential to turn US opinion against the occupation, with potentially incalculable consequences for the region.
Issue 734, 14 May 2004.
more
Also see Issue 734, 14 May 2004. Detention: the medium not the message
Better the devil you know as USA struggles with Iraqi opposition
US officials are convinced that military operations are “chipping away” at resistance in Fallujah and the Moktada Al-Sadr challenge, but this has meant making some huge political compromises – with the potential that even Sadr’s men might be co-opted to give an appearance of calm ahead of the 30 June transition. While attention has focused on the prisoner abuse scandal, US Central Command (Centcom) has made incremental but important progress in Fallujah and across the Shiite south. This has involved using US forces to set conditions for Iraqi militias – not the slowly developing formal Iraqi security forces – to take over.
Issue 734, 14 May 2004. more
Iraq’s creditors circle, but financing remains hard
Informal creditor groups are forming ahead of a formal Paris/London Club rescheduling, but overall the pace of financing for Iraq’s reconstruction is catastrophically slow, when compared to the high hopes of one year ago.
Issue 734, 14 May 2004. more
Timetable for a ‘sovereignty lite’ formula to govern Iraq
With less than 70 days to go until sovereignty formally passes to an Iraqi interim government, the US-led Coalition is trying to untangle a confusing mesh of political, military and economic issues, increasingly dependent on the UN for success. Drawing on extensive access in Washington, the Coalition Provisional Authority and UN, GSN lays out the timelines that will underpin the transition to Iraqi self-rule.
Issue 733, 30 April 2004. more
Dual containment as Washington faces Iraq’s two-front insurgency
Washington officials played up links to Lebanese Hizbollah and Iranian radicals – taking heart from Iranian Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comment that Shiite firebrand Moqtada Al-Sadr was the “new [Sheikh Hossine] Nasrallah”. But the upsurge in violence by the Mahdi Army and other groups in April was not foreign-inspired, marginal activity in Iraq’s passage to ‘reconstruction’.
Issue 732, 16 April 2004. more
Dual containment as Washington faces Iraq’s two-front insurgency
Washington officials played up links to Lebanese Hizbollah and Iranian radicals – taking heart from Iranian Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comment that Shiite firebrand Moqtada Al-Sadr was the “new [Sheikh Hossine] Nasrallah”. But the upsurge in violence by the Mahdi Army and other groups in April was not foreign-inspired, marginal activity in Iraq’s passage to ‘reconstruction’. It tested the US-led occupation of Iraq with its most serious security challenge to date.
Issue 732, 16 April 2004. more
MOO appointments vetoed by CPA
The Interim Governing Council (IGC)’s appointment of six new senior advisors to the Ministry of Oil (MOO) in February, apparently made mainly along religious lines and based on political connections, has been vetoed by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) administrator L. Paul Bremer III, outgoing senior US advisor to MOO Robert McKee told GSN
Issue 730, 19 March 2004. more
Iraq’s Shiite leader may make waves next door
As Iraqi Shia mourn their dead after the Ashura massacres, and Washington worries over his effect on Iraq, Ayatollah Sistani’s real significance may be to the political future of Iran. When Iraq’s ranking Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Husseini Sistani, announced on 27 February that he would accept a delay in Iraqi elections until the end of 2004 on the proviso that the commitment was enshrined in a new United Nations resolution, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) could relax momentarily for the first time since the Shiite leader started issuing formal political statements last October. But that luxury may not last.
Issue 729, 5 March 2004. more
Irbil bombings cloud Kurdish prospects ahead of Basic Law
As Iraq’s Kurds seek their way in an upcoming sovereign government, violence in northern Iraq could throw their efforts off course. Inside, GSN speaks with the PUK’s Barham Salih about the Kurdish platform.
Issue 727, 6 Feb 2004. more
Baker’s diplomatic finesse formalises a revived multilateral approach to the Iraqi debt headache
The UAE’s agreement to join other creditors in giving Iraq a substantial repayments ‘haircut’ underlines the evolving multilateral approach to the problem of settling huge Saddam-era debts. Debt specialists on GSN’s sister publication Iraq Focus believes this fits into a wider framework of multilateralising Iraq’s future.
Issue 726, 23 January 2004. more
Mixed fortunes for pipelines
While the northern oil pipeline remains resolutely closed, the Iraqi Ministry of Oil (MOO) hopes the 1.7m b/d IPSA-1 pipeline from the southern oil fields to Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, can reopen. MOO officials said “discussions with Saudi Arabia about opening the pipeline” were expected, although a firm date has yet to be set. Interim Governing Council Oil Minister Mohammed Ibrahim Bahr Al-Ulloum discussed IPSA-1 – which closed when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990 – during his visit to Riyadh.
Issue 726, 23 January 2004. more
IOCs are invited to call as Iraq sees exports rising
It has been a long time coming, but Iraq is back as an oil market player. GSN’s sister publication Iraq Focus reports that despite growing communal tensions the Iraqi oil industry is finally building momentum.
Issue 725, 9 January 2004. more
2010 Iraq archive
2008-2009 Iraq archive
2006-2007 Iraq archive
2005 Iraq archive
2004 Iraq archive
2003 and earlier Iraq archives
Return to main GSN's Iraq page
Select another country
