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Long haul as Sunni resistance digs in
The rotation of new US military units into Iraq in 2004 – a sequel operation dubbed Iraqi Freedom II by the Pentagon – will have to work better than the original if it is to succeed in the face of an insurgency that has rolled with every blow the Coalition forces have thus far thrown at it and shows signs of deeply embedding itself within Iraq’s Sunni communities.
Issue 724, 12 November 2003. 
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CPA still trapped within walls of its own making
Washington has failed to shock and awe Iraqis with its peace-keeping tactics, the CPA’s record is mediocre and policing operations have alienated swathes of Iraqi opinion, but civilian administrators’ failures mean that most Iraqis still fear an early US military withdrawal.
Issue 722, 14 November 2003. more
Pentagon bans critics ‘to protect essential security interests’
The decision of US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz to bar French, German and Russian companies from competing for contracts under the $18.6bn US-financed reconstruction programme signals a clear victory for Bush Administration hardliners just a couple of months after senior Pentagon sources had stated exactly the contrary.
Issue 722, 14 November 2003. more
Big questions remain as Iraq donors step up commitments
Madrid has delivered–but delivered what? With more than $13bn pledged at the Iraq donor's conference in Spain, it remains to be seen whether the mechanisms are in place to put even this limited funding to use.
Issue 721, 31 October 2003. more
Contracts ban for Saddam’s business cronies
Individuals or companies indicted for illegal profiteering during the Saddam Hussein era will be barred from bidding for government contacts in the new Iraq, IGC Trade Minister Ali Allawi has announced. This could compromise some of the local firms who have already aligned themselves with US and other partners in the reconstruction effort.
Issue 721, 31 October 2003. more
Attitudes to neighbours point to IGC’s direction
The Turkish deployment so anxiously sought by Washington has highlighted the IGC’s growing tendency to distance itself from the US-led occupation authorities. Analysis drawn from the new monthly Iraq Focus shows the IGC is striving on a regional stage to underline its independence, much to the liking of Iraq’s Arab neighbours.
Issue 720, 17 October 2003. more
Troop deployment weighs on US-Turkish relations
Turkey’s parliamentary vote in support of dispatching troops to Iraq could make relations between Ankara, Washington and Iraq’s Interim Governing Council in Baghdad more complicated rather than less.
Issue 720, 17 October 2003. more
Iraq investment law off to uncertain start
If “capital is a coward”, as US Treasury Secretary John Snow observed at September’s IMF/World Bank meetings in Dubai, then getting international investors into the Iraqi market will require considerably firmer assurances than were on offer at the development institutions’ annual jamboree.
Issue 719, 3 October 2003. more
Iraq’s investment potential: looking beyond the security concerns at non-oil sectors
With the appointment of an interim cabinet and the drafting of an initial investment law, Iraq looks like taking great strides towards reintegrating itself in the global economy – albeit under intense security pressures
Issue 719, 3 October 2003. more
US reassesses Iraqi resistance after poor response to troop requests
US requests for more countries to send troop contingents to Iraq have been met with little sympathy at the United Nations, where Washington is insisting that all security operations remain under US command. With the US now scaling back its troop requests, clamping down on Iraqi resistance will only become a more demanding task for coalition forces, some of which have been in Iraq for more than six months – not that long in terms of past wars, but longer than they may have been prepared for.
Issue 718, 19 September 2003. US Reassesses Iraqi resistance after poor response to troop requests
Bombing campaign widens political vacuum, tests new cabinet’s credibility
Iraq’s new cabinet is emerging as a crucial test of the hitherto largely symbolic Interim Governing Council’s capacity to assume the power and decision-making role now vested in the US-run Coalition Provisional Authority.
Issue 717, 5 September 2003. more
USA still needss subtle hand after tactical successes in Iraq
Guarded optimism over the security situation in Iraq has surfaced in Washington for the first time since May, with some signs of improvement seen after the killing of Uday and Qusay Hussein. The discovery and death of Saddam Hussein’s sons was seen as the crowning achievement in a series of steady tactical victories and innovative counter-insurgency operations, prompting influential US correspondents to make cautiously optimistic predictions about the evolving security environment in Iraq.
Issue 716, 8 August 2003. more
With new Governing Council, Iraq starts to shrug off provisional administration
With the installation of a new Governing Council in Baghdad representing all of Iraq’s ethnic groups and a diversity of political tendencies, post-conflict “normality” at last beckons for Iraq. With Uday and Qusay Hussein lying on mortuary slabs, an encouraging report from United Nations envoy Sergio Vieira de Mello, and talk of a fresh UN resolution that would open the way to a more multi-national military presence and new sources of foreign aid, it is now just possible to glimpse a stable future in which an Iraqi administration is no longer provisional, and includes local actors
Issue 715, 27 July 2003. more
Kuwait looks for early ties with post-Saddam Iraq
As the American-led coalition struggles with the rebuilding of Iraq’s political, industrial and even social infrastructure, the country’s neighbour to the south-east is taking early steps to forge ties that could help integrate the country into the broader region in the period following the fall of Saddam Hussein’s isolated regime.
Issue 714, 11 July 2003. more
Patterns of Iraqi resistance begin to form
British Prime Minister Tony Blair dropped into Basra for an uncomfortable moment, but his new International Development Secretary Baroness Valerie Amos postponed a planned visit in late May because of the threat of attack by “Saddam Hussein loyalists”. US President George W Bush wowed the troops in Qatar during his recent Middle East tour, but avoided setting foot in the country they had just liberated.
Issue 713, 27 June 2003: more
Insurers wary of Iraqi political risk market
Iraq represents a huge new market, with intensive reconstruction, upgrading, and eventually fresh construction work for at least the next 20 years, involving all the major sectors of the economy and civil society. This massive effort will generate a big market for insurance products.
Issue 712, 13 June 2003. more
Regional factors set to slow stabilisation of Iraq
The arrival in Baghdad of L. Paul Bremmer III signalled the start of a revitalised US approach to establishing order in post-war Iraq. US plans call for security to be established across the country, but the new civilian administrator’s team is discovering that great disparities exist between the predominantly Kurdish north, the largely Shiite centre and Najaf-Karbala area, and the southern area around Basra.
Issue 711, 30 May 2003. more
G8 governments jockey for position on Iraqi debt
Though the profile of Iraq’s debt is murky, such are the prospects offered by reconstruction that even the most cautious governments are already pushing export credit into the country. Creditor nations and corporates seem willing to work with the new Iraq even before a clear resolution of the debt situation – or the political situation, for that matter – is in sight.
Issue 711, 30 May 2003. more
Disquiet on the media war’s Baghdad front
For the US-led Coalition, successfully shaping Iraqi perceptions has grown vitally important, particularly since other means of influencing the public – by re-establishing security, water and power supply and a welfare state – are taking longer than expected. Iraqi opinion still balances on a knife’s edge, with the population undecided about how it views Coalition forces.
Issue 710, 16 May 2003. more
Gulf business makes peace with military to fight for Iraq reconstruction contracts
Business leaders and governments in the Gulf are already preparing to snap up new project and supply prospects offered by Iraq’s reconstruction. Kuwait – among the first to provide humanitarian relief – and Dubai in particular are bubbling with interest.
Issue 709, 2 May 2003. more
Coalition flirts with nation-building in Iraq as combat role fades away
With the combat phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom winding down, the Pentagon has entered the nation-building phase. It could prove more of a challenge than fighting the war given the Coalition’s aim not only to oust Saddam Hussein but also to eradicate any WMD and ‘terrorist threat’, create a stable government, get Iraq’s infrastructure running and minimise global anger over the war.
Issue 708, 18 April 2003. more
Business, multilaterals will look to shape of post-war administration in Iraq
Diplomatic skills are being been tested as rich donor nations attempt to reach agreement over a future path for the reconstruction and governance of Iraq. It will be that path as much as anything else that determines business prospects for the nation.
Issue 708, 18 April 2003. more
Is the Iraqi pump primed for supergiant status?
Iraq’s possible emergence as a new super-giant oil exporter may be firing IOC and neo-conservative imaginations. But Iraq’s accession to oil’s big league will depend on geopolitics and corporate spending, rather than 6m b/d production potential.
Issue 707, 4 April 2003. more
Between a virtuous outcome and catastrophe: Three scenarios for an uncertain future
Even before Iraqis are confronted with the awe and terror of an unprecedented US-led bombardment – expected soon after the initial assault on the Baathist establishment and its defences, launched on 20 March as GSN went to press – businesses have been steeling themselves to chase the opportunities that will be offered by a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq
Issue 706, 21 March 2003. more
The Oil-for-Food Programme is dead! long live the OFP!
LONDON/NEW YORK—British and US diplomats have begun drafting a new United Nations Security Council resolution that would place control over Iraq’s Oil-for-Food Programme (OFP) in the hands of UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan. This could be presented to the Council as early as next week, depending on the pace of military action in Iraq.
Issue 706, 21 March 2003. more
Iraq’s ‘Day After’ men face a long wait in the wings
The carpetbaggers are heading south and for companies, international organisations, and governments looking to position themselves with the expected post-Baathist Iraqi government the message is becoming increasingly clear – unless current trends reverse, Iraq will be governed by US statesmen and military leaders for 12-18 months. The ‘day after’ men of the external Iraqi opposition parties look likely to be relegated to ‘years-after’ men, fated to fill out the ranks of a future Iraqi legislature rather than the near-term executive branch.
Issue 706, 21 March 2003.
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Chirac of Iraq revives France as a Middle East power, at least until the bombs drop
Russia’s threat to veto any United Nations Security Council approval of military action against Iraq – hinted at by Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in London this week and made explicit when he crossed the Channel to meet his French and German counterparts – piled fresh pressure on UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, but could serve as a confirmation by the USA that its war on Iraq must start without a second resolution
Issue 705, 7 March 2003. more
Arab leaders manoeuvre ahead of talks about action
Stung by their impotence in the face of the US-led confrontation with Iraq, Arab governments have moved forward their summit, scheduled for 24 March in Bahrain, to Cairo earlier in the month. While the summit promised much from an Arab policy perspective, the timetable established by an apparently impatient President George W Bush, meant war may have been declared by then
Issue 703, 7 February 2003. more
‘Smoking gun’ may rise out of the underworld
European opposition to early military action against Iraq appears to be hardening, as many of the EU’s leading political figures refuse to be persuaded of the need for war by the discovery of 11 empty chemical warheads and thousands of new documents, and public opinion appears solidly against a war launched on US President George W Bush’s terms.
Issue 702, 24 January 2003. more
Syria caught between Iraq and a hard place
Mood swings in Damascus are becoming more marked as President Bashar Al-Assad, and the Alawite hardliners and reformist allies that vie to influence his government’s behaviour come to terms with a probable US-led invasion of Iraq. Squeezed by the West, its rapprochement with Iraq and perennial conflict with Israel, Syria is attempting to mould Arab efforts to find a peaceful solution, not necessarily in concert with the initiative promoted by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdallah Bin Abdelaziz.
Issue 702, 24 January 2003. more
Weighing the cost of a war on infrastructure
Think-tanks and international aid agencies attempting to avert a new war against Iraq are increasingly wearing their hearts on their sleeves by publishing alarming forecasts of civilian casualties, public health crises, and environmental ruin.
Issue 701, 10 January 2003. more
TOP
2002 and Earlier Archives – Iraq |
Iraq: War a near certainty
With only 30-40 days needed for the USA to mobilise its land forces and only six hours for the US and UK air forces to start a campaign to obliterate Saddam Hussein’s military industrial complex, war is no longer a possibility: it is a near certainty. States and other stakeholders worldwide are starting to understand this, creating what President Bush has called a slipstream effect which will draw reluctant allies into the conflict.
Issue 700, 20 December 2002.more
Iraq war plans complicated by Turkish and Kurdish ambitions
As Washington’s planners finalise scenarios for an assault on Iraq, they have one card to play that was not in the deck back in 1991 – the use of No-fly Zones (NFZs) above northern and southern Iraq, where the Baghdad regime’s air power is excluded from the outset.
Issue 700, 20 December 2002. more
Oil comes into play as the USA and Saddam manoeuvre towards endgame
Iraq’s present and future oil export capabilities are back at the centre of international concerns as the work of the new United Nations weapons inspection team sets the framework for a move to war or, less likely, to peaceful normalisation of Baghdad’s dealings with the outside world.
Issue 699, 5 December 2002. more
Saddam is guilty but the jury is out on invasion of Iraq by an “Imperial” America
Saddam Hussein is, as GSN has described him before, the “dictator’s dictator”. The Iraqi President has a monstrous record of human rights, staying in power through the use of violence ranging from torture to weapons of mass destruction (W.M.D.). The consequences of his failed invasions have impoverished what was, two decades ago, arguably the Arab world’s most vibrant and well-qualified middle class. While professors, doctors and engineers are now focussed on scraping a living, they might under more “normal” leadership have formed the nucleus of a pluralist political system to carry the country forward.
Issue 692, 7 August 2002. more
Trouble in mind for Iraq as US hawk flies into a Turkey in crisis
Deputy Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz’s mid-July visit to Ankara underlined the extent of US interest in probing Iraq’s northern flank. US State Department Under-secretary and former ambassador to Turkey Mark Grossman and Commander-in-chief of US European Command General Joseph Ralston accompanied Wolfowitz, indicating the close inter-relationship of political and military affairs in an initiative intended to feed into battle plans for President George W. Bush’s effort to unseat President Saddam Hussein.
Issue 691, 24 July 2002. more
US military resists ‘Frankenstein’s Monster’ approach to invasion of Iraq
Reports from Washington suggest that U.S. military leaders have persuaded President George W. Bush’s Administration to curtail plans for a military campaign in Iraq until Spring 2003 or even further ahead. The Administration had been readying itself for military action, and the postponement decision appears to have followed a review of military options requested by the national command authorities.
Issue 688, 12 June 2002. more
New Sanctions Regime
The UN Security Council has reached agreement on the Goods Review List (GRL), to allow its introduction by a 1 June deadline, speeding up the import of civilian goods into Iraq. A UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) official told GSN that the new procedures would set out a clear timetable for how quickly the UN Secretariat has to operate and how quickly the two expert bodies—the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (Unmovic) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—will have to give their opinions on goods considered to be high-risk dual/military use items.
Issue 686, 15 May 2002. more
Proxy war and political shifts in Northern Iraq as Saddam’s enemies manoeuvre ahead of US assault
With Iraq and the USA jockeying for military and political advantages in northern Iraq, the military balance has become more transparent and emerging strategies discernable. Whether operations in the area will form the main, co-equal or diversionary effort in a future US/UK military offensive, covert and overt military options are taking shape.
Issue 685, 1 May 2002. more
USA gears up for Iraq conflict without regional support
Washington’s intention to remove President Saddam Hussein from power is no longer in doubt, but opposition from regional allies—robustly expressed during Vice President Dick Cheney’s mid-March tour of potential coalition partners—has prompted a reassessment of the US war machine’s capabilities to effect regime change in Iraq.
Issue 682, 20 March 2002. more
Is Saddam, no longer the immortal, preparing for the après Saddam?
While debate continues about the likelihood of US action against Iraq, a parallel debate has begun over the likely outcome of each of the range of options mooted in recent weeks by the Iraqi National Congress (INC), its supporters and the Pentagon’s Joint Staff. Proponents of regime change tend to favour either a centrist strategy—involving a coup attempt supported by Iraq’s Sunni elite—or a peripheral strategy, focused on an uprising supported by the Shiite and Kurdish communities, as well as urban Sunnis
Issue 679, 6 February 2002. more
Mixed fortunes for Kurdish zones as Iraqi region prospers
Though neither Iraqi nor Iranian Kurdistan can count on a stable near-term future, the cause of their respective instability and the economic development of the two Kurdish communities could not be further apart.
Issue 673, 31 October 2001. more
Inflated oil profits give big dividends, threaten OFP
Expert overseers monitoring Iraqi oil sales on behalf of the United Nations report that since December profit margins on the business have averaged around $0.30 per barrel—six times more than would normally be expected—enough to generate a rich flow of uncontrolled illicit revenue for Baghdad.
Issue 672, 17 October 2001. more
US hardliners search for a Saddam connection
President Saddam Hussein risks being hoist by his own pétard. Having been virtually alone worldwide in celebrating the 11 September attacks on the USA, Iraq appears increasingly at risk of being targeted in the anti-terrorism war declared by President George W Bush—even in the absence of concrete evidence linking Baghdad to the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon.
Iissue 670, 19 September 2001. more
Tariq Aziz “resignation” claim points to shifting balance of power
Reports that Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz, usually seen as a core Saddam Hussein ally, has resigned from office and retreated to his ranch outside Baghdad, after his son’s imprisonment on corruption charges, may be premature. But they nevertheless raise new questions about the evolving balance of power in Iraq, where presidential son Qusay Hussein’s fortunes seem to rise ever higher.
Issue 669, 6 September 2001. more
Iraq crisis: smart bombs precede smart sanctions
The 16 February US/UK air strikes against targets near Baghdad provoked great anger among those many states and people who advocate a radical change of approach towards Iraq. The strikes were in response to concerns over upgrades to Iraq’s air defences, and perceptions that ten years after the liberation of Kuwait, Saddam Hussein is again becoming a significant force in the region. GSN examines the Anglo-Saxon strikes and asks whether smart bombs will now be complemented by “smart sanctions”.
Issue 656, 5 March 2001. more
Iraq’s Air War
Tracking the innocuous air defence war over Iraq is not an activity that many journalists stick with for long. To the short-term observer nothing much changes and little of value can be confirmed. Just occasionally, however, the conflict offers fruitful insights into the political dimension of the ongoing conflict with Iraq. In recent weeks the unusually busy flurry of exchanges of fire have yielded some interesting observations.
Issue 637, 29 May 2000. Download the PDF
Dredging Up The Past (1)
This is the first of three articles which will look at the changed and changing political imperatives that have come into place in the Gulf region since Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. The second and third articles will look at attitudes towards Iraq from within the region and the wider world community respectively.
Issue 639, 26 June 2000. Download the PDF (Also see Issue 640/2, 10 July 2000: Dredging Up The Past (II), Issue 641/2, 24 July 2000: Dredging Up The Past (III))
2010 Iraq archive
2008-2009 Iraq archive
2006-2007 Iraq archive
2004-2005 Iraq archive
2003 Iraq archive
2002 and earlier Iraq archives
Return to main GSN's Iraq page
Select another country
