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2010 Iraq archive
2008-2009 Iraq archive
2006-2007 Iraq archive
2004-2005 Iraq archive
2003 and earlier Iraq archives
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Maliki to begin painful process of building lasting coalition of disparate interests
Nouri Al-Maliki’s reappointment as prime minister is imminent, but power will be fragmented between a number of parties and alignments, and progress will be slow and difficult. GSN examines the options and possible outcomes.
Issue 890, 26 November 2010. more
Moderating Maliki: curbing the power of the prime minister
Neither the Sadrists, Kurds, Sunnis or seculars trust Maliki, and so all will have a strong interest in reducing the relative power of the prime minister. The US and Iran are likely to support this. Is such a restructuring possible and what might it look like?
Issue 890, 26 November 2010. more
Maliki seeks breakthrough with government of everyone and no-one
As federal President Jalal Talabani asks prime minister-designate Nouri Al-Maliki to form a cabinet, there will follow 30 days of delicate negotiations. Maliki must also find at least 163 votes by 11 December in order for his government to be ratified.
Issue 890, 26 November 2010. more
UK troops set to leave in 2011
Up to 100 UK military personnel still in Iraq are to be withdrawn in May 2011, British military chiefs have announced.
Issue 890, 26 November 2010. more
Maliki mandate
Iraq’s parliament finally met to select a speaker and allow the formation of a government, to be led by prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki, on 11 November.
Issue 889, 12 November 2010. more
Search for security underpins Iran’s economic co-operation with Iraq
The confusion of a post-Saddam Iraq has presented Iran with countless opportunities to extend its tentacles of influence. GSN outlines the Islamic Republic’s strategy for keeping its rival at bay
Issue 889, 12 November 2010. more
Sectarian violence increases
Attacks on Christians have increased in recent weeks, but church leaders have called on the country’s dwindling Christian population to remain.
Issue 889, 12 November 2010. more
Murphy awarded Kurdish block
Another US company has signed up for exploration acreage in the Kurdistan Regional Government region, following Marathon Oil Corporation’s deal in October which made it the first publicly traded US company to operate in the KRG zone (GSN 888/10).
Issue 889, 12 November 2010. more
Marathon gets Kurdistan PSCs
The award to Marathon Oil Corporation of interests in four Kurdistan exploration blocks is the clearest indication to date of industry confidence that Baghdad will eventually have to recognise production-sharing contracts (PSCs) made by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Issue 888, 29 October 2010. more
Advantage Maliki: MPs’ endorsement edges PM closer to power
Many months after Iraqi elections, delicate horse-trading is still required if Nouri Al-Maliki is to capitalise on the public support of 143 MPs and secure his reappointment as head of government in Baghdad
Issue 887, 15 October 2010. more
Fears of coup as impasse continues
As attempts to form a new government drag on, there is growing evidence that radical Shia militias are planning a coup, according to reports in Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat on 8 October.
Issue 887, 15 October 2010. more
Former US diplomat compensated for secret oil deal
The London Court of International Arbitration’s award of damages to former US diplomat Peter Galbraith and a Yemeni partner comes at a sensitive time in Erbil-Baghdad relations. As Kurdish political leaders renew negotiations with Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki over their conditions for supporting his candidacy, the award is an awkward reminder of the murkier side of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)’s oil licensing process and its constitutionality
Issue 887, 15 October 2010. more
Iraqi Kurdistan risk management report
Independent development continues amid hard bargaining with Baghdad
Issue 887, 15 October 2010. more
Iraq oil field raided in contract spat
The Ministry of Oil (MoO) in Baghdad has accused provincial officials and local police of raiding an oilfield being developed by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).
Issue 887, 15 October 2010. more
China fails to win hearts and minds in Iraq
Chinese oil companies led by CNPC have got off to a shaky start in Iraq, alienating local communities by failing to employ Iraqi workers and deploying high-profile security measures. It will take much work on both sides to repair the relationship
Issue 886, 1 October 2010. more
Nabucco keen to secure gas for Europe
European Union-backed Nabucco Gas Pipeline International (NGPI) is pushing to secure Iraqi gas to flow through its planned pipeline, which would supply Europe by-passing the EU’s biggest supplier Russia.
Issue 886, 1 October 2010. more
Risk management report
New insurgency fears as political vacuum persists
Issue 886, 1 October 2010. more
The next insurgency: Baathists and Salafis pool resources to fight Iraqi government
GSN wrote about the beginnings of “the next insurgency” in Iraq in April 2009, describing meetings between Iraqi Sunni leaders and Baathist insurgents, which were characterised as a “long-term hedging of bets” by both parties ahead of the US drawdown and the assumption of full control by the Shia-led government in Baghdad. Sources within the US and Iraqi government intelligence systems believe this next insurgency is starting to unfold.
Issue 885, 17 September 2010. more
Operation New Dawn: challenges facing the new US mission in Iraq
Operation Iraqi Freedom ended on 1 September after more than seven years of US ‘combat operations’ in Iraq. GSN marks the occasion by analysing the new US military mission, Operation New Dawn
Issue 884, 3 September 2010. more
Liberating Iraq from Saddam: ‘A huge price’, but was it worth it?
The US administration has played down its engagement in Iraq – and strategic focus – while Afghanistan has risen up the agenda. But the end of US combat operations in Iraq was of sufficient importance for President Barack Obama to mark with only his second televised address from the Oval Office.
Issue 884, 3 September 2010. more
Tricky transition from Defence to State
One of the remaining military tasks for US Forces Iraq (USF-I) is to enable the operations of the last 16 Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) that the State Department operates in Iraq.
Issue 884, 3 September 2010. more
Defending Iraq: how the US can offset domestic, external threats
An unspoken aspect of the remaining US presence in Iraq is Washington’s option of defending Iraq against major foreign or domestic threats.
Issue 884, 3 September 2010. more
Halliburton wins Eni contract
Oil giant Halliburton said on 31 August that it had won a contract from Italy’s Eni to help extract more oil from 20 wells in the Zubair field.
Issue 884, 3 September 2010. more
New contracts for Majnoon field
US giant Halliburton has signed a letter of intent with Shell Iraq Petroleum Development to become project manager for the Majnoon field development.
Issue 883, 27 August 2010. more
Increased energy production, but continued tensions with Baghdad
Risk management report
Issue 883, 27 August 2010. more
Government formation delayed in constitutional ‘Groundhog Day’
Unable to decide on a mutually acceptable candidate to be prime minister, Iraq’s main political blocs have prised open a gap in the legal timetable, stranding the country in a kind of constitutional ‘Groundhog Day’ in which the clock has effectively stopped.
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Iran is the focus as Iraq builds heavy divisions and lines up procurement deals
Although the aftershocks of Iraq’s post-Saddam brush with state failure continue to be felt across the country, Iraqis are moving on to new concerns – including a growing apprehension about the actions of its powerful neighbours
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Ukraine wins big in Iraqi procurement
Ukraine has successfully stalked the Iraqi defence market for decades, cutting sanction-busting deals with Saddam Hussein and later leveraging its role as a post-Saddam contributor of forces to the ‘Coalition of the Willing’.
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Hawker Beechcraft delivers T-6 trainers
Hawker Beechcraft said at the UK’s Farnborough Air Show on 20 July that it had delivered the first eight T-6A military trainers ordered by the Iraqi Air Force, with seven more due by year-end.
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Retired Bush-era officials make good in Kurdistan
While US diplomacy may not be getting very far in Baghdad – vice president Joe Biden’s recent visit did not lead to any breakthrough in negotiations on a new government – former diplomats and officials are doing well in Iraqi Kurdistan, acting as advisers to the Kurdistan Regional Government or its commercial partners
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Potential Sonangol farm-out
Angola’s Sonangol has said that Occidental Petroleum and Indonesian state company Pertamina have shown interest in taking a stake in its Qayara and Najmah oilfield developments in Iraq.
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Ex-Im Bank opens Iraq financing
The Export-Import Bank of the United States has opened short- and medium-term financing for US imports to Iraq.
Issue 882, 30 July 2010. more
Kurds, Ankara do business and reposition diplomatically
While most eyes have been on Turkey’s relations with Israel (poor), the United States (could be better) and the European Union (increasingly indifferent), the early June visit of Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) leader Massoud Barzani to Ankara gave another sign that the AKP (Justice and Development Party) government’s policy towards Iraq and the wider region was bent on ‘normalisation’, and that this could lead to Turkey supporting a more autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan.
Issue 881, 16 July 2010. more
From tense Basra and Baghdad to ‘relaxed’ Anbar: Iraq’s security outlook as US withdrawal looms
With the 31 August deadline looming for the withdrawal of US combat forces in Iraq, GSN has visited locations across the country to conduct a wide-ranging assessment of the security situation and the likely impact of withdrawal. We asked what the drawdown would mean on the ground and whether the Iraqi Security Forces will cope.
Issue 881, 16 July 2010. more
The unique case of Anbar
Across Iraq the Iraqi Security Forces are less motivated by a need to defeat the remaining cadre of militants. There is a pervasive sense that the security issue is mostly under control and that (in most places) the insurgents are finished and do not require special efforts to further reduce their presence
Issue 881, 16 July 2010. more
Shell’s gas project moves forward in political vacuum
The outgoing Council of Ministers has approved the establishment of Basra Gas Company, which will implement Royal Dutch Shell’s controversial project to gather, process and market flared gas from a quartet of the country’s largest oil fields.
Issue 881, 16 July 2010. more
Risk management report
Politicians manoeuvre, government formation elusive ahead of US pull-out
Issue 881, 16 July 2010. more
Petrel overcomes difficult business environment to begin EPC work on Iraqi fields
Independent oil exploration company Petrel Resources has held on against the odds to bring the Subba and Luhais fields to development, following a major contractual reorganisation with local joint-venture partner Makman Oil & Gas
Issue 880, 2 July 2010. more
Authorities gloss Kurdistan security threat
The Kurdistan Regional Government’s Asaish (security services) and Peshmerga (army) have an excellent record in preventing terrorist attacks, but it may not be as unblemished as the KRG claims.
Issue 879, 18 June 2010. more
Erbil stokes oil rush to increase pressure on Baghdad
There is eager speculation about business prospects in Iraqi Kurdistan once a number of key obstacles – including Baghdad’s refusal to pay IOCs for exporting oil or to recognise contracts they have signed with the KRG – are cleared
Issue 879, 18 June 2010. more
Election results are finally ratified, but bitter rivals fight for the right to form new government
Iraq’s highest judicial authority has approved the March election results, meaning a new government can finally be formed. The State of Law and Iraqi National Alliance are now deep in negotiation to form a coalition, with some observers predicting that Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani will have the last word
Issue 878, 4 June 2010. more
PUK meets to discuss reform
Members of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) gathered in Sulemaniyah in early June for what was only its third general congress since its foundation in 1975.
Issue 878, 4 June 2010. more
Flag carrier bankruptcy cuts air routes to Iraq
Iraq’s Ministry of Transportation is liquidating Iraqi Airways, one of the Middle East’s oldest airlines
Issue 878, 4 June 2010. more
Paranoia strikes as Iraqis accuse GCC of meddling in oil and politics
It has long been fashionable in Iraq to state that Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Co-Operation Council states represent a ‘hidden hand’ in Iraqi politics, backing various potential proxies by bankrolling their campaigns. The renewed prominence of Iyad Allawi has strengthened this view, leading many Iraqi politicians and commentators to complain about the degree of Saudi influence over the political campaigns of Sunni groups like Allawi’s Iraqiya list.
Issue 877, 21 May 2010. more
Iraqi Kurdistan: Isolated from Iraqi violence, but dependent on political bargains with Baghdad
Risk management report
Issue 876, 7 May 2010. more
KRG Licence areas, exploration and discoveries
Issue 876, 7 May 2010. more
KRG oil blocks, operators and exploration progress
Issue 876, 7 May 2010. more
Strong man Maliki fights hard to keep power
Outgoing Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki is doing whatever he can to retain power after his State of Law coalition was narrowly defeated in the 7 March elections. Weeks of lobbying paid off on 19 April, when the special elections court ordered a manual recount of 2.5m votes in Baghdad province.
Issue 875, 23 April 2010. more
Election results leave politics in limbo, economy slows on oil slump
Risk management report
Issue 875, 23 April 2010. more
Iraq faces confusion as parties bargain for power
The Iraqiya list may have won the most seats according to the preliminary election results. But this does not mean the bloc’s leader, Iyad Allawi, will be the first invited to form a government
Issue 874, 9 April 2010. more
Balance of political parties after the March 2010 election
Issue 874, 9 April 2010. more
Canadian court to decide on Bombardier jets
Canada’s Bombardier could lose hundreds of millions of dollars in future Iraqi contracts if its Supreme Court rules in favour of Kuwait Airways in its long-running dispute with Iraq.
Issue 874, 9 April 2010. more
Maliki and Allawi fight for post-election supremacy
The Iraq election result was impossible to call throughout the entire campaign, and remained so nearly a fortnight after the poll as the counting process placed Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law marginally ahead of former prime minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqiya who briefly led in the middle of the week
Issue 873, 19 March 2010. more
Also see Issue 873, 19 March 2010. Patterns in turnout
IOCs face election limbo and contract bottlenecks
The contracts are signed and the elections over, but the vagaries of post-election government formation mean that international oil companies will have to wait months to know what attitude the next administration will take towards the service contracts that emerged from last year’s two licensing rounds
Issue 873, 19 March 2010. more
Etamic default releases Gulf Keystone, but raises questions over KRG’s licensing programme
The withdrawal of a mysterious Middle Eastern investment fund from a joint venture with Kurdistan-focused exploration company Gulf Keystone Petroleum frees it from an awkward partnership. But the affair leaves the Natural Resources Ministry of Kurdistan looking less than open in its approach to licensing exploration blocks
Issue 873, 19 March 2010. more
Coalition bargaining follows parliamentary elections
Coalition-building negotiations following elections to Iraq’s Council of Representatives, held on 7 March as GSN was going to press, promise to be complex and difficult. Unreliable opinion polls taken in the first weeks of the campaign suggested that Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition could emerge as the largest party. But, according to one well-informed observer with a background in the US security establishment, Al-Maliki ran a “terrible” and “lacklustre” campaign. His relations with many of the political leaders with whom he will have to negotiate a majority in the 325-seat parliament are not good.
Issue 872, 5 March 2010. more
Baghdad-KRG rapprochement: is it for real?
The thaw in Baghdad-Erbil relations since the beginning of this year has continued with encouraging statements from both federal oil minister Hussain Al-Shahristani and Kurdistan Regional Government natural resources minister Ashti Hawrami.
Issue 871, 12 February 2010. more
Gulf Keystone upbeat on Kurdistan prospects
AIM-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) is in an upbeat mood, pushing on with an extensive exploration programme in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) area. Speaking at a Proactive Investors event in London in early February, GKP finance director Ewen Ainsworth said: “We’ve had an outstanding year, hitting £1.30 per share at one point; it’s currently in the 90p-£1.10 range. It’s just the start of a bigger story.”
Issue 871, 12 February 2010. more
Also see Issue 871, 12 February 2010. Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s KRG assets
Fresh crisis threatens to engulf Iraqi elections
A ban on 511 candidates and 15 political lists so close to the election has caused widespread alarm and raised sectarian tensions, but a last-minute deal could still contain the fall-out
Issue 870, 29 January 2010. more
Election process fraught with animosity, majors sign up for oil work
Risk Management Report, Issue 870, 29 January 2010. more
Bargains and battles mark run-up to Iraqi poll
With just under two months to go before the parliamentary elections, campaigning has yet to officially begin. But the underlying battles and bargains which will make or mar the government of the next five years are coming into the open. Whether all of Iraq’s sectarian communities can take part is still in doubt: Shia militants are being brought into the process, Sunni former Baathists are being excluded, while the Kurds are preparing for a grand bargain.
Issue 869, 15 January 2010. more
Iranian role in Iraq kidnapping disputed
The US State Department and the UK Foreign Office cannot agree whether Iran was behind the kidnapping of British computer expert Peter Moore in Baghdad in March 2007. The Americans point to a plot directed by Tehran, but the British insist that, although the kidnappers – Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (League of the Righteous) – had the backing of the Iranian government, they were not taking orders from it.
Issue 869, 15 January 2010. more
Kurds turn the corner
This year will be a pivotal one for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) following a disastrous 2009. Over the past months, it has been embarrassed by a series of corruption scandals which undermined the credibility of its hydrocarbons licensing regime and brought the region’s entire democratic edifice into question.
Issue 869, 15 January 2010. more
Elections must produce a strong legitimate government for continued progress
Risk Management Report, 15 January 2010. more
2010 Iraq archive
2008-2009 Iraq archive
2006-2007 Iraq archive
2004-2005 Iraq archive
2003 and earlier Iraq archives
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