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2010 Regional archive
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Copenhagen tests Saudi Arabia’s resistance to climate change
For long a staunch opponent of the climate change agenda, Saudi Arabia’s resistance to a new deal on the environment will be put to the test as representatives of 190 countries hammer out an agreement on global energy policy in Copenhagen. Critics say the world’s largest oil exporter has played an obstructionist role in the fight to limit the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that a majority of governments now believe cause climate change.
Issue 868, 18 December 2009. more
Gargash: Time to press Israel, not cosset it
It is clear the UAE disagrees with Qatar over its overtures to Israel, even if the differences are politely stated. Talking to GSN in Abu Dhabi, minister of state for foreign affairs Dr Anwar Gargash made plain his exasperation at the international community’s failure to take serious action over the continued expansion of Jewish settlements.
Issue 868, 18 December 2009. more
Al-Suwaidi: weak central institution destroyed our faith in monetary union
The Central Bank of the UAE governor spoke to GSN about why the UAE pulled back from the current plan for GCC monetary union
Issue 867, 4 December 2009. more
‘Scorched earth’ in Yemen further raises regional temperature as US considers Iranian angle
Humanitarian concerns have forced a ceasefire in Yemen’s murderous Al-Houthi conflict amid signs that the Arab-Iranian ‘cold war’ is hotting up. With Saudi Arabia and Egypt joining the US in seeing wider regional significance in what has long been understood as a localised conflict, Ali Abdullah Saleh is looking to exploit a difficult situation
Issue 864, 6 November 2009. more
Egypt’s diplomatic star splutters in last years of Hosni Mubarak’s reign
Egypt’s role in the alliance gathered behind Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s efforts to crush the Houthi rebellion suggests the ‘sleeping giant’ of Middle East politics has not entirely withdrawn from its central role in regional diplomacy (see Politics). Cairo still plays an important part in mediating in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, most recently in trying to heal the fratricidal rift between Fatah and Hamas. But otherwise, Egypt under 81-year-old President Hosni Mubarak seems to have long parted from its Nasserite status as a critical hub for Arab political and cultural thought and action.
Issue 864, 6 November 2009. more
Encouraged by Washington, GCC builds up ‘five pillars of deterrence’
It is not just through trade and financial controls that the United States and its allies are gradually encircling Iran in an effort to throttle the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions. And the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states are playing a larger role in this process than seemed likely earlier this decade, when Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz led a move towards rapprochement with Tehran.
Issue 863, 23 October 2009. more
Banks risky but Qatar does well, says study
A recently published study by San Francisco-based global investment firm Passport Capital says “the outlook on the banking sector across the GCC is nuanced, offers limited visibility for now, and is undoubtedly risky today”.
Issue 861, 25 September 2009. more
Regional navies look closely at piracy threat
Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) navies are rapidly building up powerful fleets of muscular corvettes and multi-role offshore patrol vessels, making it likely that nations such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman will soon boast the most advanced surface combatants in the region.
Issue 861, 25 September 2009. more
GCC bank scandals unnerve international markets
The clarity of GCC legal systems and their treatment of foreign creditors have fallen under the spotlight as two debt-laden Saudi conglomerates troubles’ percolate through into the wider trade finance and insurance communities
Issue 859, 7 August 2009. more
Gosaibi, Sanea, Ghurair debt row
Lawsuits and rating downgrades have set three significant Gulf business families – Saudi Arabia’s Al-Gosaibis, Al-Saneas and the UAE’s Al-Ghurairs – against each other (GSN 855/13). Recently, the Dubai-based, Al-Ghurair-owned Mashreq Bank filed lawsuits in New York against AHAB and its subsidiary TIBC involving a failed $75m currency exchange
Issue 859, 7 August 2009. more
GCC shadows darken
The credit shadows that have fallen over the Middle East in 2009 are afflicting some of the official export credit agencies (ECAs) based in the region and further afield. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have moved to the centre of ECA scanners in the past couple of months, but it is the UAE that most preoccupies official insurers, GSN was told in a survey of regional and international market sentiment.
Issue 859, 7 August 2009. more
As US works to rebuild confidence, domestic challenges remain priority
Timothy Geithner’s first visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE since becoming US Treasury Secretary highlighted again the important role Gulf Co-operation Council governments play in the global economy, and the fact that the strategic alliances between the United States and GCC polities have been central to maintaining the regional status quo.
Issue 858, 24 July 2009. more
A jihadist presence in Bahrain
Like Yemen, the militant threat in Bahrain is intimately linked to Saudi Arabia. This was underlined by recent attempts to secure the extradition of three Bahrainis being held in Saudi Arabia on terrorism charges. Bahrain’s Al-Adala group (National Justice Movement) and National Detainees Committee are demanding the release of the men.
Issue 858, 24 July 2009. more
IDB to issue sukuk as part of wider fund raising strategy
In an effort to raise enough money to meet the needs of its 56 member countries, the Islamic Development Bank is planning a programme of regular sukuk issuances and is working on bilateral arrangements.
Issue 857, 10 July 2009. more
Takaful companies need access to sovereign sukuk to aid growth
While it has so far been generally judged a success story, the takaful (Islamic insurance) market’s penetration rates remain low worldwide, and for it to continue growing more needs to be done.
Issue 857, 10 July 2009. more
Fearful caution as GCC leaders watch the hardliners triumph in Tehran
Iran’s post-election crackdown has deepened GCC concerns about regional security. But that does not mean the Saudis would tacitly grant Israel airspace to mount a strike against the Natanz nuclear plant.
Issue 857, 10 July 2009. more
Islamic finance poised to go global when market confidence returns
The Islamic financial system has not been immune to the effects of the global financial crisis, but industry players remain confident, and are positioning themselves for when markets regain momentum, writes Nadine Marroushi.
Issue 856, 26 June 2009. more Taken from GSN's special report on Islamic Finance
Arab-Persian ‘Cold War’ mentality proliferating in the Gulf
Once debate was unleashed in Iran’s election, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s maverick foreign policy came to play an important role in shaping opinion, among ordinary voters who see beyond populist sentiments to count the cost of Iran’s isolation as well as among elite players who have increasingly come to view the incumbent as a liability.
Issue 855, 12 June 2009. more
Insolvencies, fraud allegations and lax accounting: credit crunch reveals GCC’s business underbelly
Ratings downgrades for major Saudi investors, a potential systemic crisis in Kuwait where investment companies are in freefall, fraud charges against well-connected Dubai developers and a marked lack of performance by Abu Dhabi’s investment flagship. A cross-section of business stories in this issue of GSN paints a sobering picture of the potential pitfalls that can befall investors in the GCC, even if the region hasn’t been as dramatically affected by the global credit crunch as other parts of the world.
Issue 855, 12 June 2009. more
Engagement without marriage: Beltway pessimistic as Obama’s team prepares to tackle Iran
Barack Obama’s first 100 days passed, the new administration is getting down to Middle East business in Washington DC. The process looks likely to be incremental and workmanlike, with none of the pizzazz of failed Bush-era ideas like the ‘Axis of Evil’ or ‘Greater Middle East Initiative’. While GSN’s recent canvassing within the Beltway found considerable scepticism among the foreign policy elite at the new administration’s willingness to engage ‘rogue states’, the Obama team is not naïve, and is lining up an early test of how to deal with Iran.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009. more
Also see Issue 853, 15 May 2009. Tehran as viewed from Washington
Israel / Palestine: Violent solutions
The Obama administration seems to have neither the appetite nor a good plan for dealing with the Palestinian Islamist militant party Hamas, which controls Gaza and could do very well in the West Bank against its ruling rival Fatah in upcoming Palestinian Authority (PA) elections.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009. more
Syria and region: ‘Wedge theory’ falls out of favour in DC
As it focuses on what many in Washington view as Iran’s uncomfortable rise up the international pecking order, US analysts are reappraising old ideas about detaching Syria from the so-called Shia Crescent linking Iran and Hizbollah in Lebanon. This so-called ‘Wedge Theory’ argued that a strategic deal with Syria, most likely involving peace with Israel and international rehabilitation, could be used to induce Damascus to end its strategic alliance with Iran and cut off one avenue of support for Hizbollah and Hamas.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009. more
Choosing Riyadh as a base shows GCC commitment to monetary union
Saudi Arabia, after all, is to house the planned Gulf Co-operation Council central bank. Following the 11th GCC consultative summit, held in the Kingdom on 5 May, the GCC’s outgoing secretary-general Abdelrahman Al-Attiyah announced that Riyadh would be the new joint monetary council’s base; this institution will eventually evolve into the GCC central bank. Significant challenges remain before achieving this goal, but the move at least suggested that Saudi Arabia was committed to playing a role akin to Euro-pioneer Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, in providing the foundations for a major new regional currency.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009. more
Depressed PF market regains momentum with ‘stunning’ Dolphin deal
After eight months in the doldrums triggered by the global credit crisis, Middle East project finance has bounced back to life with the stunning commitment of $3bn from commercial banks to refinance the Dolphin pipeline. With liquidity still very tight, a boost was necessary to bring banks back into the international syndications market.
Issue 852, 1 May 2009. more
Also see Issue 847, 13 February 2009. Project finance report: Gulf markets start rebuilding process; Issue 840, 7 November 2008. Bankers see GCC project finance market coming back in 2009; Issue 838, 10 October 2008: Global financing waves lash GCC project finance market; Issue 822, 1 February 2008: Project finance market’s robustness under the microscope ‘post sub-prime’
Al-Istikhlaf: Regionals set up $10bn wholesale bank
A number of heavyweight regional players are setting up a $10bn Bahrain-based wholesale bank, to be called Al-Istikhlaf. The bank has so far secured $3.5bn from government and private regional investors, and aims to secure the rest before it opens for business by the end of this year.
Issue 852, 1 May 2009. more
Obama visit confirms Turkey’s central status in new regional nexus
The region stretching from the Bosphorus to the Gulf must accommodate itself to a new strategic reality, as the United States – under new management and with a harrowing roster of domestic issues to resolve – disengages from Iraq, while focusing hard on Afghanistan and its neighbours. And there are signs that key governments are rethinking their alliances, to fit the new perceived reality of power politics after George W Bush. It is in this context that President Barack Obama will visit Turkey on 6-7 April, with his administration seeking to “re-engage” with the region – which places the USA as one of a range of powers seeking to renew their relations with Ankar.
Issue 849, 13 March 2009. more
Israeli lobby gets Freeman’s scalp
Veteran diplomat, linguist and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chas Freeman, has withdrawn from consideration for the position of National Intelligence Council chairman (GSN 848/4). Only two weeks ago, director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair named Freeman to the position – a move that former assistant secretary of the Treasury Paul Roberts said could be seen as an “appointment that could challenge the Israel lobby’s stranglehold.”
Issue 849, 13 March 2009. more
Also see Issue 848, 27 February 2009. More Obama appointments
US mulls the lessons of 30 years of containing Iran as it readies sticks and carrots
The Obama administration’s decision to attempt diplomatic re-engagement with Iran provides a moment of excruciating discomfort for many US politicians and generals. GSN has been exposed to some of the thinking going on inside the Pentagon, as well as in the think tanks and State Department offices charged with charting a path through this dangerous territory.
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more
Also see: Issue 841, 21 November 2008. What to do about Iran: key appointments will point the way; Issue 840, 7 November 2008: ‘Military action’ against Iran; Issue 821, 21 January 2008: Too close for comfort: US and Iranian navies tossed about in political storm; Issue 820, 21 December 2007: Revenge of the bureaucrats: Interpreting what the knights of NIE said about Iran; Issue 812, 14 September 2007: Navcent dissects Iran’s intentions as tensions increase in the Gulf’s crowded waters
Transport aircraft boom continues with $3.4bn deal
The UAE on 24 February took its latest plunge into the global defence market, formally signing a letter of request for $3.4bn worth of US military hardware from The Boeing Company and Lockheed Martin. The deal was the centrepiece of the ninth International Defence Conference and Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi. Reflecting the oil emirate’s leading role in the federation’s defence procurement, Abu Dhabi-based investment firm Al-Waha Capital will manage the purchase.
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more
Tehran/Crescent gas dispute
The row over gas sales between Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum and Iran has resurfaced as both sides continue to dispute the contractual terms of an agreement to export Iranian gas to the UAE (GSN 812/12). Under pressure to meet rising domestic demand, the dispute began when the Islamic Republic decided that the agreed price for its gas was too low. Now, Iran is saying that Crescent will have to fulfil other conditions for the agreement to be finalised.
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more
Islamic finance: a real alternative to boom or bust?
It is not immune to the impacts of the global financial crisis, but scholars and financiers argue that this is a ‘golden opportunity’ to promote the Islamic finance industry as a more responsible alternative to conventional banking.
Just like conventional banks, Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) are suffering from tight liquidity, but if the principles of sharia-compliant financing were followed, we would not be in the current financial mire, scholars and financiers argued at Euromoney’s annual Islamic Finance Summit.
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more
Tehran/Crescent gas dispute
The row over gas sales between Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum and Iran has resurfaced as both sides continue to dispute the contractual terms of an agreement to export Iranian gas to the UAE (GSN 812/12). Under pressure to meet rising domestic demand, the dispute began when the Islamic Republic decided that the agreed price for its gas was too low. Now, Iran is saying that Crescent will have to fulfil other conditions for the agreement to be finalised.
Issue 848, 27 February 2009. more
UAE’s US ties flourish as Emirates seek to become a different kind of US ally
The UAE has deliberately stepped up its rhetoric to support US policy in the region while the Obama administration is settling in and preparing to receive its first briefings on Centcom’s region-wide assessment of Gulf policy. Personal and collaborative technology relations between the two militaries have become very close, even on such thorny policy issues as Iran’s nuclear programme.
Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
UAE talks tough on missile defence
Reflecting growing bilateral ties in the sphere of defence planning, the US and UAE scripts on the seriousness of Iran’s nuclear programme are quickly coming into sync. Just over a month since the UAE Armed Forces Officers Club in Abu Dhabi hosted the first Middle East Missile and Air Defence Conference, a government-run think-tank issued statements that were unusually blunt in describing the nuclear threat to the region.
Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
Saudi claims of ‘Al-Qaeda in Iran’ reawaken old nightmares
Saudi police sources, quoted by the pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat, claimed that 41 suspected Al-Qaeda members were sheltering in Iran, benefitting from the Tehran authorities’ tolerance. This is not the first such accusation against the Islamic Republic.
Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
Regional diplomatic outlook: opportunities and risks combine at a strategic moment of truth
The GCC is struggling to develop coherence as a diplomatic player at a critical moment for the region, with the domestic politics of Israel and Iran in play, and the cast of key players going through a period of change. News that ex-president Mohammad Khatami will bid to recover his old job in this summer’s Iranian elections will be welcomed by the United States and its Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) allies, who see the prospect of a return to office for a reformist figurehead offering a small spark of hope at a time of intensifying rivalries for regional influence. These rivalries were exposed by disputes over how to react to the Israeli assault on Gaza, and are reflected in deepening mistrust between Iran and its neighbours. The embarrassing ‘war of the summits’ – in which three rival meetings were hosted by governments to discuss the Gaza crisis – provoked some commentators to talk darkly of a ‘new Cold War’ rift between radicals and moderates.
Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
Iran and Israel dance around issue of ‘game changing’ air defence systems
Reports of an upcoming sale of the Russian-built SA-20 systems to Iran will focus Israeli minds on the need to acquire F-22 fighter aircraft technology, whose export is currently banned by US law.
Issue 846, 30 January 2009. more
Gulf companies buy into African energy assets
The credit crunch is slowing down the pace of investments, but the announcement that a Dubai government flagship is to ‘invest $16bn’ in Nigeria serves as a reminder of the extent to which Gulf investors have sought out new business in Africa. GSN has tracked the move of Gulf business players into the continent over a long period, and can record some real investments as well as the usual welter of statements of intent that mark the entry of apparently ever more Arab investors into African business.
Issue 846, 30 January 2009. more
UAE nuclear programme waits on Obama
The signing of a bilateral agreement on civil nuclear co-operation with George W Bush’s administration prior to the Republican president’s departure from office has raised some eyebrows in the United States, for fear that it will spark a ‘nuclear arms race’ in the region. But in the Gulf, the agreement – which has yet to be approved by either President Barack Obama’s administration or Congress – is being seen as signalling a potential shift in the regional balance of power, as well as marking progress in the UAE’s plans to develop non-hydrocarbons sources of energy.
Issue 846, 30 January 2009. more
Kuwaiti border made more secure as the state returns to southern Iraq
Plenty of security concerns persist in the northern Gulf, some obvious, others less so – for example, Kuwait is increasingly concerned about the security of its porous Saudi border (GSN 834/6). But there are reasons to be cheerful too, notably on the Iraqi front, where criminality and political manoeuvring remain big actual and potential problems across borders in the region, but where new Iraqi security forces are starting to have an impact on the organised crime culture that has flourished in post-Saddam Iraq.
Issue 846, 30 January 2009. more
Risk analysts remain cool-headed over violence in Gaza, such episodes are ‘built into risk thinking’
GSN canvassed opinion in the credit and political risk markets to see how financing for the wider Middle East region might be affected by the New Year conflict. GSN may not agree with all their views, but specialist analysts can move markets, and several saw the Israeli assault on Gaza as a warning to Tehran; some believed that Israel would consider military intervention in Iran over the next six months, even without US support – but only as a last resort.
Issue 845, 16 January 2009. more
Qataris consider ways of keeping Iranians off their rigs
The problem of Iranian penetration of Qatar’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has long been a thorny one for the Qatari Emiri Navy (QEN), the emirate’s coast guard and Qatari Emiri Air Force (QEAF). GSN’s periodic surveys of the Project National Security Shield (NSS) system of radar and coastal surveillance has focused on the deep paranoia and touchiness that Doha feels when confronted with Iran’s powerful and unpredictable naval forces. With the giant North Field/South Pars gas reserve not yet unitised, the shared field still has a ‘wild west’ feel about it, with the Iranians and Qataris staking out their claims with rigs instead of fence posts.
Issue 845, 16 January 2009. more
Iraqi and Kuwaiti navies join forces in northern Gulf coalition
Kuwait and Iraq have signed their first formal military agreement since the 1990-91 occupation, as both countries build up their coastal security.
When Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990, the stoutest and longest resistance came from the Kuwaiti Coast Guard (KCG). For the 12 years that separated the 1991 liberation of Kuwait until Saddam’s fall, it was the KCG that was involved in the greatest number of armed clashes and police actions against Iraqi forces. For these reasons, the late December collaborative patrolling agreement between the Iraqi Navy and the KCG is a major step forward, as the first formal military agreement between the two countries since the occupation nearly 18 years ago.
Issue 845, 16 January 2009. more
After the GCC’s Muscat summit, currency plan credibility hangs on acts, not words
This promises to be a crucial test year for the commitment of Gulf Co-operation Council members to their long discussed monetary union project. At December’s Muscat summit, GCC heads of state formally endorsed next steps for the scheme. Now they must clear the way for implementation, by ensuring that it is ratified at the national level. While few believe it is now practicable to introduce the planned new single currency at the beginning of 2010, there is a growing market expectation that GCC states need to rapidly finalise and publish the practical details, if they want the plan to be taken seriously.
Issue 845, 16 January 2009. more
2010 Regional archive
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