26-29 September: Affordable Housing Development Summit Middle East, Manama
27-28 September: Unconventional Gas, London
3-5 October: Middle East Investments Summit 2010, Dubai
3-6 October: SWPF - Saudi Water & Power Forum 2010 Conference & Exhibition, Saudi Arabia
3-7 October: Funds Forum Middle East, Bahrain
4-6 October: POWER-GEN Middle East 2010, Doha, Qatar
10-12 October: The 3rd annual Saudi Arabia International Oil & Gas Exhibition & Conference, Dammam
11-12 October: Unconventional Oil 2010, London
12-14 October: Offshore Middle East 2010: The 3rd Annual Offshore Middle East Conference & Exhibition, Doha
18-19 October: Maghreb/Middle East Renewable Energy Conference, Marrakech
24-27 October: MENA Mining Congress 2010, Dubai
26-28 October: Iraq Mega Projects 2010 Conference & Exhibition, Istanbul
27-28 October: Gas to Liquids 2010, London
21-23 November: Private Equity World MENA 2010, Dubai
29 November-1 December: Iraq Petroleum 2010 Conference, London
6-8 December: Smart Grids Middle East, Dubai
Briefings & Reports
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Politics, succession & risk in Saudi Arabia report
Politics, succession and risk in Saudi Arabia is a GSN special report, published in January 2010. The new report analyses Saudi policy on issues including succession, domestic and regional politics, defence, energy and financial trends, and features extensively researched biographical entries on 1,200 Al-Sauds from the ruling family’s main branch, together with profiles of leading cadet branch businessmen, and a range of maps and graphics.
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Islamic Finance Report
Published in June 2009, this GSN report is an essential reference tool for both newcomers, and well-established bankers and practitioners. Read more
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On the page below you will find a selection of articles from the GSN archive. Please note that while some of the content is free to access, all items preceded by a padlock symbol () require a subscription.
Saud’s new security vision looks beyond Pax Americana
Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal is looking beyond the US security umbrella by advocating a new collective security framework, guaranteed by the UN Security Council. Is the new Saudi vision practicable and politically realistic? Issue 748, 22 December 2004.more
More than 20 years of talk, but limited progress towards GCC defence integration
The Peninsula Shield is the most concrete result of GCC security co-operation, but a common strategy and command structure relevant to today’s needs is absent and the USA now seems to prefer bilateral solutions. Issue 748, 22 December 2004.more
GCC mood soured by Saudi tensions with smaller states
Much ado about free trade: Saudi criticism of Bahrain’s bilateral agreement with the USA gives formal expression to tensions simmering below the surface as GCC leaders prepare to meet in Manama. Issue 747, 10 December 2004.more
Grounds for GCC concern over the FTA
According to the GCC Customs Union, “the common customs tariff of the GCC Customs Union shall be 5% on all foreign goods imported from outside of the Customs Union with effect from 1 January 2003.” However, the US/ Bahrain FTA will give both sides immediate duty-free access to 100% of bilateral trade in non-textile industrial goods, 100% of Bahrain’s agricultural exports and 98% of US agricultural exports. Issue 747, 10 December 2004.more
Qatar stands by Al-Jazeera, Saudi Arabia remains steadfastly opposed as Gulf media wars hot up
Saudi Arabia and Qatar cannot see eye to eye over the impertinent satellite channel. The direction of Gulf media is a critical issue adding to bilateral spats and other disagreements within a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region where one prince’s media investment is another’s channel of dissent. Adding to the bitter mood is US hatred of Arab media that Washington cannot control. Issue 747, 10 December 2004.more
After Arafat, another attempt at Middle East peace
Now Arafat has gone, his detractors in the Gulf could provide more substantial backing for the Palestinians as part of a wider peace effort. Issue 746, 26 November 2004.more
‘Same faces, different seats’. The anatomy of the Bush II reshuffles
Some big beasts are leaving the Washington jungle, but according to a former National Security Council (NSC) member canvassed during GSN’s soundings within the Beltway, the frantic reshuffling of foreign policy officials in the second Bush administration (Bush II) will result in “the same faces, different seats”. President George Walker Bush is famous for valuing and rewarding loyalty, and for keeping power within his political clique, and the raft of important forthcoming appointments will reflect these proclivities. Issue 746, 26 November 2004.more
Bush II administration resists regime change
Tony Blair will press the re-elected President to resurrect the moribund Middle East peace process when he visits George W Bush this week. Bush will listen politely, but even Yasser Arafat’s departure is unlikely to radically alter the direction of a Republican administration bent on imposing its particular version of ‘reform’ on the Middle East. Issue 745, 12 November 2004.more
Bush’s victory adds to demands for a coherent GCC policy response
With much of the Arab world and its friends looking on aghast, Washington was totally committed to – and Iyad Allawi’s interim government potentially deeply compromised by – the ‘showdown’ in Fallujah in a week when the region lost two true giants, UAE President and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahayan and Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Issue 745, 12 November 2004.more
Third generation Jihadists seek out soft targets
Al-Qaeda is a diffuse movement, not an organisation, whose affiliates have so far enjoyed only limited success in merging the wellspring of anti-Western feeling with the training opportunities and logistical pipelines now being established by jihadists in Iraq. Issue 744, 29 October 2004.more
Gulf banks ride a wave of liquidity
Huge oil revenue flows into the GCC region are creating challenges – and a more daring mindset – among those banks which are sitting atop ever greater amounts of liquidity. Issue 744, 29 October 2004.more
Use oil boom cash to encourage job creation in emerging GCC, says IMF’s new Middle East chief
Most Gulf oil producers already have huge financial reserves, so now perhaps they should spend more to stimulate private sector job creation, the IMF’s Middle East director Mohsin Khan told GSN. Given the Fund’s global influence, policy-makers should take note. Issue 743, 15 October 2004.more
GCC summit moves to Manama as UAE looks closer to home
During a period of transition in its domestic politics, the UAE has handed over organisation of the annual GCC summit to Bahrain. GSN examines the summit build up in Manama, Abu Dhabi and the wider region. Issue 742, 1 October 2004.more
High hopes, modest expectations as Israel sounds out GCC monarchies
Israel wants to extend diplomatic and business ties in the Arab Gulf states. GSN’s soundings suggest that even though Israel remains a pariah state for most Arab/Islamic states, Tel Aviv sees opportunities in the Gulf where once it saw threats – except when it comes to Iran. Issue 740, 27 August 2004.more
Partnership back in vogue as State regains the initiative in Washington
Is it another signal that neo-conservatives have been outflanked as Republican Washington seeks to remake itself and win George W. Bush a second term? The State Department’s Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) has re-emerged as the central instrument of US support for reform in the Arab world now that Washington’s more aggressive ambitions have been hobbled by premature publicity and the need to co-ordinate policy with Europe. Issue 739, 23 July 2004.more
USA ponders counter-terrorism aid for Arab allies
The final part of GSN’s series on counter-terrorism analyses the prospects for closer co-operation between the USA and Gulf Co-operation Council states – and asks parts of the US government should get involved. Issue 738, 9 July 2004.more
Maritime attacks: The wave of the future?
Maritime attacks are potentially the most important development of terrorist activity in the Gulf, offering a relatively weak point in the oil industry’s defences. Issue 736, 11 June 2004.more
GCC anti-terrorism drive: elite business
It should have been a highly significant event in the ‘global war on terror’ when the six Gulf Co-operation Council interior ministers signed a new anti-terrorism accord at the mid-year summit of GCC leaders in Jeddah. But the lack of transparency about the 4 May accord’s details left many Gulf-watchers with the distinct impression that the announcement was more style than substance. Issue 735, 28 May 2004.more
Whether Dubya or Kerry wins, pariah states are likely to remain in limbo
Whoever wins in November, the next US administration will have only limited options when its comes to shaping Middle East policy. This will disappoint those who see a potential opening to rehabilitate ‘pariah states’. Issue 735, 28 May 2004.more
Can Shia politics provide a new axis of stabilisation for the Gulf?
How great a share of power does Iraq’s Shiite majority want and how far will they compromise with other groups? Can Bahrain’s leading Shia political society, Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society, ever bring itself to participate in the Island’s parliamentary arrangements? What role does the large Shiite population of Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province seek to play in the Kingdom’s future? Issue 734, 14 May 2004.more
Europe seeks direction, distance from Bush, in the regional democratisation campaign
As President Bush pushes a muscular version of democratic transformation, Europe struggles to advance the same agenda without inspiring the same resistance. But do European governments have anything like the muscle needed to push through change, resist the American policy steamroller or avoid alienating regional allies? Issue 729, 5 March 2004.more
A new generation of US trade pacts push a political agenda
To the Bush administration’s credit, the last few years have seen a new push to strengthen trade ties between the USA and the Middle East and Gulf region. With the benefits of the Clinton administration’s landmark free trade agreement (FTA) with Jordan now apparent – to the tune of 30,000 or more new jobs, according to the Jordanian government – the current White House has launched into talks to establish similar links throughout the region. Issue 728, 20 February 2004.more
UK takes first steps in new stance toward Gulf
Britain’s push to build a new partnership with the Arab world is fully in operation, but whether this spells a new dawn for the UK’s Gulf relations will depend on how far Britain is willing to go to back up its rhetoric. Meanwhile other key EU members’ Gulf policies are evolving. Issue 728, 20 February 2004.more
Gulf banking sectors prepare for uncertain era
Concerns over political risk have not yet left Gulf business and banking sectors. GSN examines payments problems and questions of systemic health around the region. Issue 727, 6 February 2004.more
French diplomatic overture gets mixed reception in the GCC
France is back. That was clearly the first priority message that Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin wanted to get across with his regional tour of Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain over recent days. Issue 726, 23 January 2004.more
Buoyant GCC grapples with dollar black spot
From the region’s tiger economy Qatar to the relative laggard Oman, Gulf states spent 2003 clocking up impressive growth, and look on course for another strong year in 2004. A fall in oil prices could send some states into negative territory. But it is the falling dollar that is likely to keep more Gulf finance officials up at night. GSN examines the big picture below, and goes on to detail prospects for the GCC economies in 2004. Issue 726, 23 January 2004.more
The missile threat: should air travellers be scared?
As the war on terror beds in, airline security teams are becoming more concerned about Manpads than box-cutters. Everything from improved intelligence to on-board missile countermeasures mean the threat is controllable – but costs are rising sharply and the threat won’t go away. Issue 723, 28 November 2003.more
Radical shifts in US theatre strategy demand a profound rethink by GCC militaries
Gulf militaries face a new set of challenges after the US-led occupation of Iraq. The first in a new GSN series on Gulf militaries’ changing priorities focuses on shifts in US strategic thinking. Later articles will provide country-by-country analysis of trends to give a picture of Gulf militaries by the 2008-13 period. Issue 722, 14 November 2003. more
Gulf project finance sources set to diversify
A series of upcoming industrial projects in the Gulf region could draw on financing next year that goes far beyond the commercial debt that has provided much of the region’s needs in recent years. As commercial debt dries up, the increasing syndication risk in regional project finance is making alternative financing techniques increasingly necessary, according to one senior executive at a big Bahraini bank that has withdrawn from long-term project debt underwriting. Issue 721, 31 October 2003.more
French sound out Saudi opinion on a Gallic Muslim question
French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy’s planned visit to Saudi Arabia in early October could afford an important opportunity to strengthen the two countries’ burgeoning relations, at a time when the USA is increasingly at odds with Saudi Arabia over charges of support for terrorism (more). Issue 718, 19 September 2003.more
Ankara reaches out to the EU via Washington
Turkish Foreign Minister Abdallah Gul’s late July mission to the USA brought high expectations for restored intimacy in Ankara’s relationship with Washington. But sources tell GSN that although Gul was well received, the first visit by a senior Turkish official since before the Iraq war uncovered little on which the two countries could reach substantive agreement. Issue 716, 8 August 2003.more
Restructuring Gulf security architecture: US misperceptions point to shaky foundation'
Even before the fall of the Baathist régime in Iraq, US government, military and think-tank analysts were preparing themselves for a major reorientation of the Gulf region’s security architecture. But the view from Washington may not be as clear as the experts would like to believe. In misinterpreting Gulf Co-operation Council military capabilities and perhaps over-estimating GCC cohesiveness, Washington analysts may be basing imminent decisions on a set of faulty assumptions that could have important consequences for future security architectures. Issue 715, 27 July 2003. more
EU approaches test of influence in Gulf
Coming months will put the European Union to the test in the Gulf, as it seeks to demonstrate to what extent it can operate as a counterweight to US influence there. In practice, the EU already has a stronger hand than the US in its dealings with Iran, and it has begun mobilising resources to take a more prominent role in Iraq. Issue 714, 11 July 2003.more
Gulf business makes peace with military to fight for Iraq reconstruction contracts
Business leaders and governments in the Gulf are already preparing to snap up new project and supply prospects offered by Iraq’s reconstruction. Kuwait – among the first to provide humanitarian relief – and Dubai in particular are bubbling with interest. Issue 709, 2 May 2003.more
Arab leaders manoeuvre ahead of talks about action
Stung by their impotence in the face of the US-led confrontation with Iraq, Arab governments have moved forward their summit, scheduled for 24 March in Bahrain, to Cairo earlier in the month. While the summit promised much from an Arab policy perspective, the timetable established by an apparently impatient President George W Bush, meant war may have been declared by then Issue 703, 7 February 2003.more
GCC raises the drawbridge and calls out the guard
The Gulf’s security mandarins were in no mood to dismiss the New Year rioting in Bahrain as simple hooliganism when they gathered at two key meetings in early January (GSN 701/4). An impromptu meeting between GCC intelligence and security ministers in Kuwait on 4 January set the scene for further discussions at the sidelines of a scheduled meeting between Arab interior and information ministers in Tunis on 14 January. Issue 702, 24 January 2003.more
Hearts and minds: Washington seeks to ‘transform the psychological environment’
Alongside the escalation of no-fly zone enforcement and the build-up of US and UK forces in the Gulf, Washington has slowly escalated its programme of psychological operations (PSYOP) in the Middle East. Issue 701, 10 January 2003.more
Securing oil supplies: what to do in an emergency
President Hugo Chavez’s current travails might appear to amount to little more than a domestic difficulty, but the impact of the Venezuelan stand-off on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries giant’s crude exports has been catastrophic – a lesson that Caracas’s fellow OPEC members in the Gulf will have taken to heart. Gulf Co-operation Council states with significant oil export capabilities are looking into 2003 with understandable trepidation, none more so than the country with the unhappy distinction of sitting directly in Iraq’s firing line. Issue 701, 10 January 2003.more
Oil comes into play as The USA and Saddam manoeuvre towards endgame
Iraq’s present and future oil export capabilities are back at the centre of international concerns as the work of the new United Nations weapons inspection team sets the framework for a move to war or, less likely, to peaceful normalisation of Baghdad’s dealings with the outside world. Issue 699, 5 December 2002.more
West concerned about democracy, human rights in the GCC—but not in public
The mood of crisis in Gulf affairs, with decisions on a war against Iraq perhaps just weeks away, is proving a delicate test for the West’s readiness to promote a democracy and human rights agenda. Right wing hawks may be talking about a sort of ‘democratic’ domino theory—in a dream scenario where Saddam Hussein’s overthrow is followed by virtuous political change in Iran, Syria and even Saudi Arabia—but at an official level such thinking remains off the public agenda, at least when the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries are concerned. Issue 697, 7 November 2002.more
Sharp increase in GCC defence spending
The new International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance 2002/2003 shows a sharp increase in GCC defence expenditure, largely driven by 38 percent hikes in Kuwaiti and Omani spending, plus sustained levels of expenditure in the other four GCC states.
Defence spending continued to grow strongly in Iran and Yemen, reflecting their military modernisation programmes. Issue 697, 7 November 2002.more
USA’s Patriot Act adds to pressures on regional banks
The financial fallout from the 11 September 2001 attacks is only starting to be felt across large swathes of the Arab world. U.S. banks have spent the past year clambering to comply with the provisions of the 2001 Patriot Act, which imposes strict requirements on them to disclose sources of foreign assets. Gulf banks—frequently identified in the popular U.S. imagination as the last redoubt of terrorist financing—are unlikely to escape the consequences. Issue 697, 7 November 2002.more
Smaller Gulf states in eye of the storm
The position of smaller Gulf governments is becoming ever more uncomfortable as US Central Command (Centcom) personnel transfer from Florida to Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar in preparation for a potential assault on Iraq—which, despite recent manoeuvres in the United Nations, could come as early as late-November, according to intelligence analysts with sources in the U.S. and Israeli administrations. Issue 694, 27 September 2002.more
Allies can set limits to US unilateralism
Although concern about unilateralism in US Gulf policy is at an all-time high—leading GSN to break for the summer talking of an “Imperial” USA—the debate about military planning options has begun to define the limits of America’s ability to go it alone in a campaign against Iraq. Issue 693, 12 September 2002.more
Earth Summit’s ‘Axis Of Oil’ shows durability of old alliances
JOHANNESBURG—The World Summit on Sustainable Development may not have resulted in the “firm targets and firm timetables” that non-governmental organisations (NGOs) had urged, but for the largely stay-away GCC states the Earth Summit served a different purpose. Issue 693, 12 September 2002.more
Dubai muscles in on Bahrain’s patch
Manama’s business community might be too absorbed by Bahrain’s velvet political revolution to notice, but rival locations are challenging the island’s more famous reputation as the Gulf region’s financial centre. Issue 689, 26 June 2002.more
‘Commissions’ to diminish as political liberalisation impacts on Gulf arms markets
This Supplement was written by GSN Contributing Editor Michael Knights, and is based on his presentation to the Gulf States Newsletter Briefing, Succession In The Gulf—The Commercial Implications, held in London on 9 May 2002. Issue 685, 1 May 2002.more
Leaders Confront Local Impacts Of MidEast Crisis
Senior Gulf leaders have understood—and identified with—the massive upsurge of popular anger at Israel’s military assault on the Palestinians and US support for Israel. Unusually, Dubai Crown Prince and UAE Defence Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum participated in one demonstration. Issue 684, 17 April 2002.more
War risks give impetus to GCC insurance initiatives
It has been a long time coming, but Gulf states are starting to revamp their neglected insurance sectors. The looming threat of U.S. military action in the region has focused minds on the need to overhaul local insurance markets, precipitating a flurry of pan-Gulf policy initiatives over the last few months. Issue 684, 17 April 2002. more
USA gears up for Iraq conflict without regional support
Washington’s intention to remove President Saddam Hussein from power is no longer in doubt, but opposition from regional allies—robustly expressed during Vice President Dick Cheney’s mid-March tour of potential coalition partners—has prompted a reassessment of the U.S. war machine’s capabilities to effect regime change in Iraq. Issue 682, 20 March 2002.more
Allies in adversity develop new relationship
Negotiations on a Euro-Gulf free trade pact are gaining momentum, spurred by progress on economic integration in Arabia and, subliminally, by a gradual convergence of views on the Israel-Palestine conflict and the containment of Iraq. Issue 682, 20 March 2002.more
US alliance, MidEast challenges test UK policy to the full
After six months on the diplomatic high wire, Tony Blair is confronted by new challenges that will test to the limit his ability to simultaneously placate different constituencies. Issue 679, 6 February 2002.more
Gulf 2002: Business as usual, chasing shadows, or two steps from meltdown?
This will be another extremely challenging year for the Gulf region. With oil prices likely to be depressed, several key governments have signalled a return to deficit spending. Limited gross domestic product growth will slow efforts at job creation for the region’s increasing number of baby boomer job seekers. Issue 677, 9 January 2002. more
Gulf states mark out terms of engagement
The last fortnight has seen an evolution in the way in which Gulf Co-operation Council states approach the international crisis triggered by the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington. Critically, Saudi Arabia has had to evolve a coherent policy towards the West and supporters of dissident Islamist Osama Bin Laden. Issue 673, 31 October 2001.more
GCC economies’ response to the global crisis
The Gulf Co-operation Council states have been keen to maintain a business-as-usual attitude in the dangerous world prevailing since 11 September, but this is proving difficult. Issue 671, 3 October 2001.more
Displacement activity as forces enter the Gulf
With inevitable irony, Osama Bin Laden’s attack on the USA triggered a now familiar flood of Western forces into the Gulf. Unlike previous crises, however, this one poses no clear and present danger to the Gulf States and military strategy dictates coercion or overthrow of the Taliban and direct actions against Al-Qaeda assets in Afghanistan to be the emerging shape of operations. This will make Central Asia, rather than the Gulf itself, the focus of forthcoming military action—easing pressures on GCC governments, most notably Saudi Arabia, which fear a popular backlash from any Western assault on “Muslim populations”. Issue 671, 3 October 2001.more
Strategies for countering Bin Laden and friends
Rare is the general who doesn’t start the next conflict fighting the last war. As Osama Bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda (the Base) network were identified as perpetrators of the 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, U.S. decision-makers turned once more to a familiar range of options for the pursuit of justice. These include attacking ‘states that sponsor terrorism’—potentially including Iraq, the aggressor in the last Bush Administration war—and punitive strikes on the groups which allegedly provided the “martyrs”. Issue 670, 19 September 2001.more
US hardliners search for a Saddam connection
President Saddam Hussein risks being hoist by his own pétard. Having been virtually alone worldwide in celebrating the 11 September attacks on the USA, Iraq appears increasingly at risk of being targeted in the anti-terrorism war declared by President George W. Bush—even in the absence of concrete evidence linking Baghdad to the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. Issue 670, 19 September 2001.more
UAE clamps down on sanctions-busting oil smugglers
Signs are that the UAE authorities are really getting serious about tackling the smuggling of Iraqi oil in breach of sanctions. They are insisting that ships seized by the United Nations anti-smuggling patrol, and then auctioned off, must be sent for scrap. Issue 663, 11 June 2001.more
Gulf military pact fuelled by security concerns
Gulf military officials and some of their Western allies are taking a hard look at the region’s security arrangements as risks are reassessed ten years after the Gulf war and amid new signs that US President George W. Bush is opting for a very hands-off foreign policy. Issue 658, 2 April 2001.more
2001: year of the terrorist, Afghans the target
Whoever finally emerges as US President is likely to make the fight against “terrorism” a key foreign policy priority during the early months of their administration. In this crusade it is not just traditional allies such as the UK that will provide backing. Gulf heavyweights are also looking to act against sponsors of “terrorism”, which include some of Washington’s bogey people—although as the Al Aqsa intifada unfolds in the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia’s list of terrorist states, as well as Iran’s, is headed by Israel. Issue 651, 18 December 2000.more
GCC states batten down for more MidEast turbulence
Turbulence in the Middle East is impacting on conservative Gulf states, with a wave of protests, all more or less officially sanctioned, as Palestinian expatriates, students and other locals demonstrated their anger at Israel’s tough security response to Arab unrest. As GSN went to press, investigators in Riyadh and Aden were trying to learn the reasons for, and the people behind, the 15 October Saudi Arabian Airlines (Saudia) hijacking and the bombings in Yemen of the USS Cole and the UK embassy. Issue 647, 23 October 2000.more
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