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| 2005 Archives – Saudi Arabia |
Special Issue on Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia: Abdullah reshapes Al-Saud social compact
Saudi Arabia in 2006 presents a complex society shaped by tradition but consumed by change. At the end of a year when King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz finally ascended the throne, Jihadist opponents were in apparent retreat and the economy was awash with levels of liquidity not seen since the 1970s, the Kingdom is feeling far more comfortable in itself than seemed possible only one year ago.
Issue 772, 23 December 2005. Download the PDF or read the contents list
Close at last for first Saudi IWPP
It was celebrated as a major breakthrough for the private financing of infrastructure in the Kingdom when on 15 November a Malaysian/Saudi group finally signed contracts for the Shoaiba Phase 3 independent water and power project (IWPP). This unit on the Kingdom’s western seaboard will produce 880,000 m3/d of water and 900MW of electricity (from a base load plant with three units fuelled by Arabian Light crude) to supply the Makkah, Jeddah, Taif and Al-Baha regions from Saudi Arabia’s first IWPP.
Issue 770, 25 November 2005. more
WTO entry promotes reforms that can help the Saudi model survive
Saudi Arabia’s long-awaited admission to the World Trade Organisation is nonetheless particularly well-timed. A crucial WTO ministerial summit will be held in Hong Kong in mid-December, giving the Saudis their first chance to operate as full members of the organisation. And over coming weeks the Gulf Co-operation Council and European Commission will try to finalise agreement on the details of a free trade accord. Now Saudi Arabia has joined fellow GCC states as a WTO member it should be easier maintain a common stance in talks with the European Union and other international trade partners.
Issue 769, 11 November 2005. more
Stronger Saudi market will help soak up liquidity
Efforts to reinforce fixed income markets will provide more instruments for local institutions to trade and give greater depth to markets in danger of overheating as Saudis reap the oil price bonanza.
Issue 768, 28 October 2005. more
Input costs take the shine off Sabic’s profit growth
High oil prices and a rise in the cost of iron ore are slowing the acceleration in profits at Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, the largest petrochemicals group in the Middle East, just as Sabic prepares to issue a SR1bn ($267m) domestic Islamic bond (sukkuk).
Issue 768, 28 October 2005. more
Busy times for Saudi Kremlinologists as King Abdullah consolidates
The pattern of recent appointments suggests that King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz is consolidating his hold on power, with a number of key allies already appointed to senior posts, such as Khalid Bin Abdelaziz Al-Tuwayjiri as head of the Royal Court (see also page 6). This pattern is also apparent in diplomatic appointments, starting with the reshuffle of Prince Mohammed Bin Nawaf to become ambassador to London, while Prince Turki Al-Faisal moved to Washington (GSN 767/5).
Issue 768, 28 October 2005. more
Abdullah builds up his team
King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz has started the process of putting senior aids into key positions, giving rise to much speculation about changes to come.
An 8 October royal decree relieved Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Nuwaysir of his post as the head of the Royal Court (at his request), to be replaced by Khalid Bin Abdelaziz Al-Tuwayjiri. Khalid Bin Abdelrahman Al-Isa was appointed deputy head. Both men have ministerial rank.
Issue 767, 14 October 2005. more
Blowback time beckons as Saudi Jihadists are squeezed in Iraq
Iraq is the anvil on which a new generation of Saudi jihadists is being forged. There are signs that blowback may be just around the corner in Saudi Arabia, but this time, the Kingdom is preparing for the impact from a new generation of jihadists.
Issue 767, 14 October 2005. more
More bad news from Iraq: Arab Jihadists are coming home
Saudi Arabia and other GCC states could be the focus for a new upsurge in Jihadist violence under the Al-Qaeda banner. Lessons learned in Iraq could make renewed conflict in the GCC very different from what went before.
Issue 767, 14 October 2005. more
Saudi Tornado ‘deal’ sets rumour mill spinning but sales may not be imminent
Flying visits to Riyadh by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his ever loyal Secretary of State for Defence John Reid have contributed to a flurry of press speculation about an impending extension of the UK’s Al-Yamamah defence deal.
Issue 767, 14 October 2005. more
Saudis experience a different kind of boom
The Saudi economy’s upswing is in full swing – and it is the full range of forces at play, not just $60/barrel oil, that is fuelling rampant economic growth. Samba Financial Group’s veteran economist Brad Bourland is forecasting nominal GDP growth of 26% in 2005, while National Commercial Bank (NCB)’s chief economist Said Al-Shaikh anticipates a more modest increase – of 17.5%.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
Saudi Arabia’s Shia subjects in search of a modern citizenship model
Tolerance and unity are emerging as keynote themes of King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz’s reign, as he seeks to take advantage of the popular goodwill that has greeted his accession to the throne (GSN 764/1). Meeting education officials as they prepared to launch the new school year, Abdullah emphasised the need to stress the unity of Saudi society and set aside religious differences – “because disunity is one of the biggest dangers we face today”.
Issue 766, 30 September 2005. more
US agrees WTO terms after Israeli deal
Saudi Arabia’s agreement to keep its objections to Israel out of international trade regulation appears at last to have unlocked the door to the Kingdom’s membership of the World Trade Organisation. In negotiations with the United States, Riyadh has confirmed that it will not invoke its technical right to refuse WTO-governed relations with Israel.
US Trade Representative Rob Portman said the Saudis had also promised not to apply the secondary and tertiary features of the Arab boycott of Israel.
Issue 765, 16 September 2005. more
Succession in Saudi Arabia: A listing of third, fourth and fifth generation Al-Saud Princes
The death in July of King Fahd and succession of another ageing ruler, King Abdullah, has raised yet again the longer term questions of succession in Saudi Arabia, where despite accelerated economic and social change, and a commitment to political modernisation, genetic politics are set to remain a critical variable. As a small contribution to understanding the scale of the princely class, GSN has set out to list the third, fourth and fifth generation Al-Saud princes, and make notes on some of the most prominent. There are also a few princesses noted, who have achieved real prominence. We consider this a work in progress and would appreciate feedback.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. Download the PDF
Saudi Arabia after King Fahd: Abdullah seizes the moment
After a period when the governance reform initiative has drifted, there is no time to waste as King Abdullah consolidates his authority with the release of prominent dissidents and an invigorated programme of government action.
Issue 763/764, 2 September 2005. more
Also see Issue 767, 14 October 2005: Abdullah builds up his team
Bandar’s departure from Washington is recognition of a changed diplomatic world
Prince Turki Al-Faisal arrives in Washington during fall as Saudi Arabia seeks to dispel the critical transatlantic perceptions that have developed over the four years since 9/11.
Issue 762, 29 July 2005. more
Old enmities hold up progress on regional integration
Arguments over frontier demarcation, maritime sovereignty and rights to economic exploitation are resurfacing along the southern shores of the Gulf, as hopes of regional integration are ensnared in the difficult evolution of relationships between the small coastal monarchies and Saudi Arabia.
Issue 761, 15 July 2005. more
Riyadh diplomatic as UAE grievance resurfaces
With a new president now in the saddle, oil, gas and old history combine to revive a forgotten issue. Shaybah development terms may be the key to a new deal.
Issue 760, 24 June 2005. more
Fahd’s illness restores Saudi dynastic rivalries to centre stage
Optimistic health bulletins are not enough to dispel questions about Saudi Arabia’s long-term future. GSN examines the political and security aspects surrounding what many believe is King Fahd’s final illness.
Issue 759, 10 June 2005. 
more
Also see Issue 759: Saudi Arabia caught between reform and repression
Rafale whispers point to long-term deals
Despite a general downturn, the global defence industry has been encouraged to see signs that Saudi Arabia is planning significant future investments, buoyed by consistently high oil prices that some analysts consider to be the consequence of a systematic adjustment of the price of oil – an observation made with some glee by defence industry analysts.
Issue 758, 27 May 2005. more
Defence: Will France reap rewards for Riyadh connection?
The press was full of speculation about Franco/Saudi defence deals following Crown Prince Abdallah Bin Abdelaziz’s mid-April visit to Paris, before travelling on to Texas for talks with President George W Bush. Crown Prince Abdallah has reached outline agreement with President Jacques Chirac on a wide-ranging economic and technical co-operation programme, but contrary to press reports this does not include a commitment in principle to the purchase of 48 Rafale warplanes made by Dassault Aviation. Indeed, the true state of play remains shrouded in diplomatic discretion and a massive sale of French warplanes may not be happening just yet.
Issue 756, 29 April 2005. more
Momentum builds behind the new Saudi politics
The final tranche of nationwide municipal elections will take place on 21 April in Hejaz, Qassim and the north, as previously reported in depth by GSN. But elections are only part of a much wider evolution in the government of Saudi Arabia and the way it manages development and reform.
Issue 754, 25 March 2005. more
Shia engagement reinforces positive mood in outward-looking east
Government overtures to the coastal Shiite community have transformed the once tense atmosphere of Eastern Province, whose oil resources are the engine room of the Saudi economy, even though a local election dispute could sour the mood in Al-Hasa.
Issue 753, 11 March 2005. more
Religion, family loyalties dominate Saudi voting patterns
Liberals have taken a beating as conservative Islam, Shiite community organisations, tribal or family ties and local standing have proved the main influences at play as a minority of male Saudis vote for the first time.
Issue 753, 11 March 2005. more
For more coverage of the municipal elections see: Interview, Electoral Commission head Prince Mansoor Bin Mitaeb, Issue 784, 23 June 2006: Saudi ministry procrastinates over legal challenge to clerical role in elections, Issue 754, 25 March 2005. Momentum builds behind the new Saudi politics
Conservatives top Riyadh poll
There were few surprises as the capital’s citizens turned out for their début vote, with no businessmen or tribal representatives winning seats in Riyadh in the first round of the Saudi municipal elections, held on 10 February. In a vote that appears to reflect the increasingly urban political culture of the Kingdom, all seven seats went to conservative Islamists drawn from professional and technocratic backgrounds.
Issue 752, 25 February 2005. more
Leaders cautious in the face of resurgent Shia self-confidence
Iraq’s election will bring Arab Shiites a major share of power for the first time outside the Levant. But GCC governments remain ambivalent about recognising the importance of their Shia communities.
Issue 752, 11 February 2005. more
Kingdom gears up for its first big electoral credibility test
With the international focus on security, Saudis have exhibited only moderate enthusiasm for the rolling programme of municipal elections beginning in February, but interest in wider expressions of democratic culture is spreading.
Issue 749, 14 January 2005. more
An edgy Hajj approaches, but Riyadh attacks underscore disruption of terrorist cells
With the Hajj festival looming, all eyes will be looking towards the Kingdom as its security forces face their annual test of coping with the movements of 2 million pilgrims, while simultaneously fighting a fierce war against terror.
Issue 749, 14 January 2005. more
TOP
| 2004 Archives – Saudi Arabia |
Saud’s new security vision looks beyond Pax Americana
Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal is looking beyond the US security umbrella by advocating a new collective security framework, guaranteed by the UN Security Council. Is the new Saudi vision practicable and politically realistic?
Issue 748, 22 December 2004. more
Also see Issue 748, 22 December 2004. more
Jeddah attack, Bin Laden: Return of the Jihadists?
The Saudi authorities and their Western allies were feeling more confident that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had been “seriously degraded”, if not destroyed, after months of arrests and shoot-outs. But after six months of relative calm, the 6 December assault on the US consulate in Jeddah has shattered the Kingdom’s relative calm and efforts to rebuild its image – and the audio tape posted on an Islamist web site on 16 December in which Osama Bin Laden attacked the ruling Al-Sauds as “agents of infidels”, praised the Jeddah attack and urged militant Jihadists to attack oil installations in Iraq and the Gulf showed just how far from close the war on terror remains.
Issue 748, 22 December 2004. more
Also see Issue 748, 22 December 2004. more
GCC mood soured by Saudi tensions with smaller states
Much ado about free trade: Saudi criticism of Bahrain’s bilateral agreement with the USA gives formal expression to tensions simmering below the surface as GCC leaders prepare to meet in Manama.
Issue 747, 10 December 2004. more
Saud sets out regional policy agenda
The Gulf Co-operation Council, enlarged to include Yemen, should be at the heart of a new regional foreign and security policy, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal told the 5 December Gulf Dialogue conference in Bahrain.
Issue 747, 10 December 2004. more
Saudi Arabia fights to hold back the Arab media tide
The Saudi print media have experienced brief episodes of apparent freedom whenever their ‘liberal’ prince owners have chosen to fight proxy wars of words, notably after the fire at a Mecca girls school in March 2002. But genuine advances in press freedom have failed to match the relatively rapid programme of planned political reforms. Strict control has been evident in the months following the establishment of the National Human Rights Association (NHRA) in March and the election of the nine-person board of the Saudi Journalists Association (SJA) in June. Following the arrest of reformists, lawyers who subsequently spoke to the media about the detentions were themselves arrested and reporting bans placed over the issue.
Issue 747, 10 December 2004. more
Spokes in the wheel of terror
The presence of Saudi individuals and funders is apparent in Jihadist groups across the globe, but most Al-Qaeda affiliates in the Gulf are not fully integrated into any global organisation and find themselves under serious pressure from counter-terrorism initiatives. As Ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Bin Abdelaziz reiterated this week, Saudi Arabia is committed to eradicating Al-Qaeda because it has declared war on the Kingdom and its ruling family.
Issue 744, 29 October 2004. more
Also see Issue 744, 29 October 2004. Third generation Jihadists seek out soft targets
Saudi naturalisation reform: tough in parts, reformist in essence
More than 1m foreign residents of Saudi Arabia could be eligible to apply for citizenship under the liberalisation of nationality law announced by the authorities in Riyadh. This is a striking projection for a country with an indigenous population estimated at 17m and with 8.8m foreign inhabitants. But the impact of the reform could be both more profound and manageable than Saudi Arabia’s conservative culture might lead one to expect.
Also see Issue 744, 29 October 2004. more
Nayef says no to women’s voting as Saudi conservatives fight back
Recent days have seen serious setbacks for Saudi reformists, amidst signs that the upsurge in oil money has eased pressure on the leadership to press ahead with political modernisation. Debate over the future course of change is moving increasingly into the public domain, signalling the determination of reform advocates to resist reverses, but the old guard is putting up a tough fight, conceding ground only when it has to and using judicial sanction to circumscribe the limits of debate.
Issue 743, 15 October 2004. more
Young Turks, old stagers boost Saudi reform hopes
Take the parlous security situation out of the equation and 2004 is shaping up to be a landmark year for the Saudi economy. The reform process is being implemented by a blend of relative youth and substantial experience.
Issue 742, 1 October 2004. more
Saudi conservatives concede on elections, fight rearguard action over women’s rights
Delays to the planned municipal elections are mainly due to the government’s over-ambitious schedule. Most conservatives now accept that elections will follow – their backlash is focused on women’s rights.
Issue 741, 17 September 2004. more
Riyadh’s electoral début will put liberal critics on the spot
Saudi Arabia’s decision to hold municipal polls for the Riyadh area in mid-November, just after Ramadan, is a politically astute move that satisfies the demands of practicality while reassuring citizens that promises of limited democratic reform will be acted on.
Issue 740, 27 August 2004. more
Saudi trial boosts opposition publicity
The judge presiding over a trial of three Saudi reformists who had publicly campaigned for a constitutional monarchy postponed the case after protesters rushed into the hearing and began chanting the slogan “Reforms, reforms”.
Issue 740, 27 August 2004. more
Saudis ponder first elections, extent of political opening
Municipal elections hardly represent revolutionary change, but they would signal the start of a new social compact emerging between the Al-Sauds and those they rule. Reformists say Saudis could vote in October, but a delay until mid-2005 is more likely.
Issue 739, 23 July 2004. more
From appeasement to open warfare: changing Gulf attitudes to Jihadist groups
With Saudi Arabia wracked by Jihadist attacks on high-profile targets, GSN 736 analysed the nature of the threat in the Gulf. Now is the time to ask how Gulf states will respond to a challenge many ignored for too long.
Issue 737, 25 June 2004. more
US pressure
Coming on the back of the fiasco in which the bank accounts of its Washington Embassy were frozen – after a federal investigation turned up $36 million in unreported withdrawals from Riggs Bank by Ambassador Prince Bandar Bin Sultan Bin Abdelaziz and his wife, Princess Haifa Al-Faisal, Saudi officials in the USA are preparing to face new threats on several fronts.
Issue 737, 25 June 2004. more
Jihadists bypass Saudi security drive to hit high-value targets
There is no hiding from the Jihadist onslaught, but with many reform policies bogged down, it will be political momentum not military muscle that decides if Al-Qaeda’s challenge to Al-Saud rule has any substance.
Issue 736, 11 June 2004. more
Saudi Arabia gets serious with Qatar
Fuller details, and potentially some sensational reports, will emerge later, but meetings between senior Qataris and Saudis in the south of France, with Kuwait’s good offices, point to the seriousness of the rift between neighbours. Sources say they want to quietly make up, but the dispute is complicated by personal differences.
Issue 736, 11 June 2004. more
Also see Issue 737, 25 June 2004. Qatar/Saudi talks: Limited progress
Others go in where Citigroup has been
Business logic appears to underpin Citigroup’s decision to dispose of its 20% stake in Samba. Such are the Kingdom’s attractions that despite intense security concerns other international banks are moving in.
Issue 736, 11 June 2004. more
Reformists’ trial prospects
Abdallah Al-Hamed, Matrouk Al-Faleh and Ali Al-Dumaini, the three detainees still in custody after the Saudi authorities’ mid-March crackdown on reformist critics, are now expected to be put on trial (GSN 733/8). The three are keen to be brought before a court, which would allow them to argue the case for their claimed right to peacefully criticise the Al-Saud regime. Independent Saudi sources believe the government is preparing to bring their cases to court, although there has so far been no official announcement, nor even off-the record confirmation, that a trial is on the way.
Issue 735, 28 May 2004. more
Saudis victim of terror, internal splits and geopolitical ambiguities
The political outlook for Saudi Arabia is ever more cloudy. Terrorist violence, contradictory signals from a divided leadership and some gritty geopolitical problems combine to make a grim outlook for the Kingdom. Corruption allegations, human rights issues and the row over US and British treatment of prisoners in Iraq are combining to cast a shadow over Western attempts to refashion policy towards Saudi Arabia and encourage the reform agenda associated with Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz – whose own control over the course of events has been brought into question by domestic rivalries.
Issue 734, 14 May 2004. more
Opposition fears bombings will hold back liberalisation
Saudi opposition pessimists fear the latest Riyadh bomb attack – at least five people died when a suicide car blew up outside a security service office building on 21 April – will only reinforce the position of conservatives such as Interior Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz who are opposed to political liberalisation.
Issue 733, 30 April 2004. more
Senior Saudis come out fighting in the USA
The Saudi/US relationship has returned to centre-stage in Washington, with senior ministers fending off damaging speculation about the size of Saudi oil reserves and new Beltway speculation focused on the Ambassador Prince Bandar Bin Sultan.
Issue 733, 30 April 2004. more
Outsourcing deterrence: Potential Saudi responses to a nuclear Iran
Saudi Arabia remains one of the least likely countries to develop nuclear weapons – but that does not mean Riyadh will sit quietly while Iran moves to become Gulf’s first nuclear-armed state.
Issue 731, 2 April 2004. more
Crackdown on reformists wanes
With only four of the reformers detained in the mid-March crackdown still in detention, what was meant as a hard-line statement by Interior Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz is rapidly turning into a public relations disaster.
Issue 731, 2 April 2004. more
Rub Al-Khali gas find provokes IOC, UAE interest
Saudi Aramco has discovered natural gas in areas of the Shaybah oilfield, in the desert sands of the Rub Al-Khali (Empty Quarter) where non-associated gas had not hitherto been found. This is particularly encouraging news for the international oil companies to whom the authorities have just awarded gas exploration and production contracts.
Issue 731, 2 April 2004. more
Winning the initiative: A Saudi timetable for elections and reform
Reformists petitioning for change may take heart: municipal elections could take place sooner than expected. Saudi reformists believe the Al-Sauds will cede them the initiative in the face of conservative opposition, but an elected national assembly will take longer to emerge, and new arrests suggest liberal reformists remain vulnerable to reaction.
Issue 730, 19 March 2004. more
Arrests point to divisions over reform in ruling group
Members of the internal security service arrested reformist campaigners just days before they were expected to launch a call for an independent human rights group, challenging the official National Human Rights Association (NHRA), which the government is setting up.
The detentions began on the morning of 16 March, just as UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw was leaving the Kingdom after talks with Crown Prince Abdallah Bin Abdelaziz.
Issue 730, 19 March 2004. more
Border dispute repaired
Saudi Arabia and Yemen have come to an understanding in their border dispute after talks in Riyadh, although the Saudis do not appear to have given ground in their insistence on an unusual security barrier, an elevated concrete-filled pipeline the Kingdom’s authorities have installed across a stretch of the mutual border zone (GSN 727/6).
Issue 728, 20 February 2004. more
Increased domestic tensions keep Saudi military spending focused at home
Though Saudi Arabia remains the biggest defence spender in the Gulf, the Kingdom’s spending is likely to remain slightly lower as Riyadh concentrates on defending against threats from within.
Issue 727, 6 February 2004. more
Saudi leadership pressured by reformists and reactionaries
The struggle for influence between Saudi modernisation campaigners and conservatives in the religious establishment and royal family is putting heavy pressure on Crown Prince Abdullah. All sides are waiting to see how he will translate months of reformist talk into concrete action.
Issue 726, 23 January 2004.more
Plodding on through the fog
Racking up a string of sound and sometimes superlative fundamentals, the Saudi authorities can look back on 2003 as one of the best years on record for the economy. By contrast, 2004 looks set to be solid rather than spectacular, with a likely contraction of oil production levels and lower crude prices putting an abrupt end to last year’s rampant oil-driven growth.
Issue 726, 23 January 2004. more
Saudi tensions to draw regional and global focus in 2004
Iraqi politics will continue to preoccupy Western politicians and the Gulf media, but unfolding ideological and personal conflicts in Saudi Arabia could well provide the defining issue of 2004.
Issue 725, 9 January 2004. more
Thinking the unthinkable: Washington ponders risks and counter-measures in Saudi Arabia
The Jihadist underground has added to pressures on Riyadh, but until recently none but a radical fringe seriously considered an end to Al-Saud rule. Now some very powerful allies are forcing themselves to consider the option.
Issue 725, 9 January 2004. more
2010 Saudi Arabia archive
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2005 Saudi Arabia archive
2004 Saudi Arabia archive
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