Coming months will put the European Union to the test in the Gulf, as it seeks to demonstrate to what extent it can operate as a counterweight to US influence there. In practice the EU already has a stronger hand than the US in its dealings with Iran, and it has begun mobilising resources to take a more prominent role in Iraq. With a more flexible view of the region than US policy-makers and more willingness to engage, the EU has a very real opportunity to strengthen its hand in the region. But the region has had similar hopes dashed before. By autumn it should become apparent whether Europe’s willingness is matched by enough diplomatic muscle to make a difference.
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