Erbil Baghdad

Iraqi Kurdistan: A potentially very big deal with Baghdad over oil and money


Risk Management Reports
Issue 1166 - 27 Mar 2023 | 4 minute read

Risk Grade D4↓

Baghdad deal: Federal Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani said on 13 March that Baghdad and Erbil had reached “a comprehensive agreement” on their outstanding differences, including oil revenues. He said a deal had been reached for all Kurdish oil revenues to be placed in a bank account “without any deductions”. Those funds could be spent by the Kurdistan authorities, subject to supervision by the federal government.

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Risk Management Report grades

GSN risk grades are intended to provide a broad guide to political and economic stability.

Political risk
Rated according to six grades, from A (most stable) to F (failed state).

Economic and financial risk
Graded from 1 (wealthiest/most sound financials) to 6 (bankrupt).

The grades are intended only to offer an immediate gauge of where risk stands in the regional pecking order. An A or 1 grade does not mean the polity is devoid of risk.

To provide a degree of nuance, risk grades also use trends arrows which go upwards (↑) or downwards () to denote cases where momentum is positive or negative.

The grades do not change regularly: upgrades and downgrades are intended to reflect long-term trends or the impact of an exceptionally changed situation.