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Iran’s supreme leader has endorsed the resubmission of two bills designed to tackle money laundering and terrorism financing to the Expediency Council. A different outcome this time for the legislation – which was previously passed by parliament but was rejected by the Guardian Council and Expediency Council – would offer renewed hope for reformists under President Pezeshkian, while another rejection could cement Iran’s rogue status on the international stage.

Iran
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Baku has restarted services from a new location in north-east Tehran, almost two years after its embassy was attacked by a gunman.

Iran
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The dramatic end to Bashir Al-Assad’s rule has created another crisis for Iran’s regional strategy and is an unnerving moment for Gulf monarchies which, in the name of ‘stability’, had been rebuilding ties with a Damascus regime that seemed to have survived a decade-plus of civil war. Diplomatic strategies will now have to be hastily redrawn, with an initial focus on ensuring Syria does not slide further into turmoil.

Iran | Saudi Arabia | Bahrain | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Israel | Iraq | Qatar | Syria
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Iran’s relationship with United Nation’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and with western powers has soured markedly in recent weeks, in the wake of a visit to Tehran by IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on 14 November. Grossi had been pushing for greater access to Iran by IAEA inspectors and to discuss uranium traces found at a number of sites around the country, but appeared to make little or no progress.

Iran
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Iranian officials have revived the idea of building a tunnel under the Gulf to Qatar – an idea that previously suggested in 2022. The megaproject would require a tunnel with an underwater section of at least 185km – almost five times further than the current longest submarine tunnel in the world. Officials are due to hold discussions in Doha in the coming weeks, but the limited levels of bilateral trade mean the megaprojects is unlikely to make economic sense.

Iran | Qatar
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Gulf rulers welcomed a familiar, if neither always firm nor predictable friend’s victory over the widely mistrusted Biden administration to regain the White House. Plenty of questions remain about what a second Trump term might mean for the Gulf economies and for regional security, and the ‘transactional’ populist’s impulsive approach to policy means it is unlikely to be a smooth ride even for his allies. Trump II could further accelerate trends apparent in recent years, of Gulf states pivoting towards Asia and making ever more assertive expressions of national interest, if still under an American defensive umbrella.

Iran | Saudi Arabia | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
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Tehran has launched a housing development on Abu Musa and floated plans for tourism developments on the island, which is part of a trio of islands controlled by Iran but claimed by the UAE. On nearby Greater Tunb, a power plant has also been brought back online after a four-year hiatus.

Iran | United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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The Brics summit hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed the first meeting between Iran and the UAE since they became full members of the emerging economies’ bloc in January. The conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon were high up the agenda as the Russian city of Kazan hosted an event that allowed emerging economies to show off their potential as an eventual alternative to western economic dominance – and the dollar economy – but above all it allowed Putin to bask in the glow of peer group recognition, ahead of the US election, while his war in Ukraine rages on.

Iran | Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Bahrain | Yemen | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Iraq
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Pezeshkian presented his first draft budget to the Majlis-e Shura-ye Eslami on 22 October, setting out plans to reduce taxes for poorer Iranians, boost oil production, reform energy subsidies, and bolster the country’s military. 

Iran
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The health and status of Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani has been the focus of widespread speculation in recent weeks, with conflicting allegations that he had been injured by an Israeli strike in Lebanon or was an Israeli spy – both of which have been denied by Tehran.

Iran
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The barrage of up to 200 ballistic missiles Tehran fired at Israel on 1 October was the latest in a series of escalatory steps taken by Israel and Iran, as a conflict that began in Gaza a year ago threatens to spread across the region. Arab Gulf states have largely been bystanders to the events, but could yet fulfil important roles – by providing mediation, influencing allies and helping to stabilise energy markets.

Iran | Saudi Arabia
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Iran’s ambassador to Beirut, Mojtaba Amani, was among those injured when explosives hidden in pagers were detonated across Lebanon on the afternoon of 17 September, in a campaign targeting members of Hizbollah and the group’s allies.

Iran | Lebanon
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President Masoud Pezeshkian and foreign affairs minister Abbas Araghchi have been holding talks with their international counterparts, in early efforts to try and reset Iran’s relations with regional and global powers, with former foreign minister Zarif helping from the sidelines. However, tensions with Israel could yet lead to further regional instability and undermine hopes of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, while domestic issues also hold the potential to create further difficulties for the new administration.

Iran
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President Masoud Pezeshkian secured parliamentary approval for his full cabinet on 21 August – the first time this had happened in more than two decades. The process was helped by the implicit support for his nominees from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – but the limited number of female, young and moderate ministers has irked some of the president’s supporters.

Iran
Issue 1190 - 08 August 2024

Iran seeks to bolster air defences

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Tehran has been touting its domestically-produced air defence systems, but has also reportedly been seeking more advanced equipment from Russia, amid fears of further confrontations with Israel.

Iran