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Recent bilateral talks on border security, water resources and the 5m Afghans living in Iran point to a more positive atmosphere between the neighbours – prompting speculation that Tehran could soon recognise the Taliban government. It comes at a time when other Gulf states have been recalibrating their relations with the isolated regime.

The consequences of the UAE’s involvement in Sudan’s civil war – where Abu Dhabi has been identified as a key supporter of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti)’s Rapid Support Forces militia – appears to be increasing, with four of its servicemen alleged to have been killed in South Darfur and the Emirati ambassador’s residence in Khartoum coming under attack.

Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani travelled to Ankara in early August for talks on defence co-operation with Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The previous month, Türkiye had sent additional naval vessels and fighter jets to the Gulf country in what may be a sign of nervousness in Doha about what a second Trump presidential term might mean for its security.

The turmoil that has broken out in Israel and Gaza in recent days may lead to a recalibration by Yemen's Houthis of what they should put on their list of demands and how much pressure they can exert on Saudi Arabia in any further rounds of talks. It might also concentrate minds in Riyadh about the need to secure a viable settlement in Yemen, so that the land beyond its southern border is not a long-term harbour of potential danger.

In his new book, 25 Days to Aden, regional risk and security expert Michael Knights – a former contributor to GSN – has offered an unprecedented view of the UAE as a rising, and effective, military power, as it became embroiled in the Yemen conflict.

The failure of Yemen’s warring parties to renew their truce in October is regarded by many observers as a sign of both the increasing strength of the Houthi rebel group and a failure of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to resolve its own internal differences.

Protestors have refused to stand down in the face of sometimes overwhelming state force in the seven weeks since Mahsa Amini died in custody. The movement’s support base has spread across the country and into parts of society not usually associated with political demonstrations, putting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei under unprecedented pressure. His regime is not yet facing the end, but the challenge to the clerical/military leadership will not fade easily or quickly.

Even while Iranian diplomatic efforts are focused on talks with global powers to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal whose revival would significantly improve the economic outlook – the domestic situation remains fragile.

An attempt by GCC secretary-general Nayef Al-Hajraf to convene a fresh round of dialogue in Riyadh for Yemen war belligerents appears to have failed, with the Houthis refusing to take part. However, there are signs of further Saudi-inspired political initiatives to break the stalemate on the ground, which could have significant consequences for President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the wider political process.

In contrast to the UAE’s public withdrawal from Yemen – where Emirati military forces formally pulled out last October, although it has retained a less widely publicised presence, notably on the islands of Socotra and Mayyun – Oman has steadily increased its influence in the worn-torn state.

The latest report by the Panel of Experts on Yemen to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), released in late January, has highlighted how all parties to the conflict are guilty of economic profiteering which, alongside the fighting and human rights violations, is exacerbating the country’s dire situation. The UN Panel offered more details on the strength of the Houthi-Iran relationship, as well as corruption within the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, and violations of UNSC resolutions by the Southern Transition Council (STC).

GSN’s year-end Perspective/Agenda feature provides a look back – and forwards – at key events across the region in 2020-21. It gives an opportunity to update the Risk Grades included with each of our regular Risk management reports. After another year of tragedy, Yemen is effectively a failed state (rated F6, the bottom political and financial grades). Qatar has shown itself to be robust in the face of its neighbours’ boycott, its finances warranting an upgrade to 1, putting it on a par with the UAE. Iraq’s political standoffs and financial woes remain deeply troubling, but the situation is improving rather than deteriorating and the prospect of higher oil prices next year should help further; it has been upgraded from E5↑ to D4↓. Oman’s fiscal challenges continue to mount, prompting a downgrade of its economic rating to 3. 

Head of state security General Abdelaziz Bin Mohammed Al-Howairini faces another challenging year at the helm of the Presidency of Public Security (PPS). Having been rehabilitated by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), Al-Howairini has the heavy task of protecting domestic security. This was challenging even before the assassination of Iranian military kingpin Qassem Soleimani, which drive reprisals on Saudi soil.

Three years into an ambitious plan to transform the Ministry of Defence (MoD)’s operational effectiveness, the programme is running into trouble as the initial enthusiasm dissipates. The transformation programme is an important element in the Vision 2030 strategy, as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS – also defence minister ) regards the MoD as being in the vanguard of his plans.

The British-Omani military exercises Al-Shomoukh 2 and Saif Al Sarea 3 were still in full swing on land, sea and air as GSN went to press – a clear demonstration of international support for a sultanate that has long been seen as a maverick within the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). The exercise is a sign for Muscat that it still has friends in high places – which is particularly important these days given the concerns that are bubbling up among the sultanate’s strategists, as well as analysts in Washington and elsewhere, about the intentions of its neighbour, the United Arab Emirates.