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The start of services on the Riyadh Metro and hotel openings at the Red Sea Project are positive signs of progress in the kingdom’s ‘giga-project’ economy. But for all the hype about the government’s shift away from Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenues, hydrocarbons are as vital to the economy today as they were when Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman launched his Vision 2030 diversification strategy in 2016. The turnover of key executives suggests the Saudi top team is unhappy with progress to date.

Saudi Arabia
Free

Even before the new Gaza war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate had been hostile, as shown in analysis of the International Monetary Fund's new reports on the global outlook and regional economic performance.

Iran | Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Bahrain | Yemen | Oman | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Palestine | Iraq | Qatar
Free

Commerce spoke louder than diplomacy when the state-owned QatarEnergy announced a ten-year deal to supply condensate to the Dubai government-owned Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc). It represents the first major commercial deal since the two Gulf Co-operation Council partners (or mainly, in recent years, rivals) agreed in June to reopen their respective embassies.

United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
Free

There are many reasons for environmentalists to be suspicions about the UAE's stewardship of the upcoming UN Climate Conference COP28, but it could prove a historic mistake for the mostly western critics to underestimate the summit's president-designate Sultan Al-Jaber. While detractors fear the event is morphing into a vehicle for hydrocarbons industry lobbying, the UAE claims it is serious about renewable energy and is recruiting a potentially powerful southern alliance to its side.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Free

Tempers are fraying over the early-October decision by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies in the Opec+ group to cut oil production. The most prominent members, Russia and Saudi Arabia, remain in a cosy alliance and western efforts to drive a wedge between Moscow and the Gulf countries have yet to show any returns. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seem unfazed by any possible reputational risks, while they continue to sweat the global economy for revenues.

Free

Governments across the Gulf are enjoying another boom in  oil  and gas prices, which is all the more welcome given the fiscal crunch in many economies caused by the Covid pandemic.

Free

For all the build-up, United States President Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia on 15-16 July ended up being a distinctly underwhelming occasion. The grubby compromises of realpolitik were on clear display, but without the glittering prizes of any ‘historic’ breakthrough, either in political or economic terms.

Saudi Arabia
Free

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to roil global oil and gas markets – particularly in Europe where countries are chasing alternative supplies to reduce their heavy energy dependency on Russia.

Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Iraq | Qatar
Free

A year on from the Al-Ula agreement that ended the boycott of Qatar by three of its Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) neighbours – Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – Qatar is enjoying a fresh period of political calm. Indeed, in many ways it now looks to be in a better place than most of its erstwhile foes in the GCC.

Qatar
Free

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, host of the 26th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26), is rarely short of a pithy quip aimed at his support base. Indeed, whole policies have been woven around his notion that the UK electorate can “have its cake and eat it”, however misleading that may be. Johnson’s allies – and even his critics – in the Gulf’s oil and gas producing states would appreciate that sentiment as they emerge from the climate talks, due to end on 12 November.

Free

Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) announced a reshuffle of the federal cabinet on 25 September, alongside what he termed “a new government strategic approach that will lay the foundations of work for the next 50 years”.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Free

On 22 July, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated a new oil pipeline running from Goreh in Bushehr province to a terminal at Jask in Hormozgan province, on the Gulf of Oman. The 1,000km, 42-inch link provides a strategically important new export outlet for Iranian crude.

Saudi Arabia | Oman | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Israel
Free

Differences between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and his Emirati counterpart, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) have been mounting ever since Riyadh led the way towards reconciliation with Qatar at the Al-Ula summit in January.

United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Saudi Arabia
Free

Budget talks in Baghdad are going down to the wire over the thorny issue of allocations to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The negotiations are the latest manifestation of a long-running dispute between Iraq’s centre and its periphery that has proved stubbornly immune to resolution since the late Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime was ousted in 2003. There is added friction in the Baghdad-Erbil standoff, with Iraqi Shia parties increasingly vexed at what they view as a resurgence of Kurdish independence hopes.

Iraq
Free

GSN’s year-end Perspective/Agenda feature provides a look back – and forwards – at key events across the region in 2020-21. It gives an opportunity to update the Risk Grades included with each of our regular Risk management reports. After another year of tragedy, Yemen is effectively a failed state (rated F6, the bottom political and financial grades). Qatar has shown itself to be robust in the face of its neighbours’ boycott, its finances warranting an upgrade to 1, putting it on a par with the UAE. Iraq’s political standoffs and financial woes remain deeply troubling, but the situation is improving rather than deteriorating and the prospect of higher oil prices next year should help further; it has been upgraded from E5↑ to D4↓. Oman’s fiscal challenges continue to mount, prompting a downgrade of its economic rating to 3. 

Iran | Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Bahrain | Yemen | Oman | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Iraq | Qatar