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The start of services on the Riyadh Metro and hotel openings at the Red Sea Project are positive signs of progress in the kingdom’s ‘giga-project’ economy. But for all the hype about the government’s shift away from Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil revenues, hydrocarbons are as vital to the economy today as they were when Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman launched his Vision 2030 diversification strategy in 2016. The turnover of key executives suggests the Saudi top team is unhappy with progress to date.

After years of minimal progress, plans to introduce personal income tax in Oman appear to be moving forward, with a draft law passed from the lower house of parliament to the upper house in late June. If it goes ahead, it will be the first income tax in the GCC and could provide a model for Muscat’s neighbours to follow.

With great power competition rising between the US and China over the development of artificial intelligence, the major Gulf economies are being forced by Washington to pick a side. The UAE appears to have come down firmly in favour of working with American AI firms, while Saudi Arabia has been divesting its American AI investments and striking deals with Chinese rivals.

As the GCC region’s big economic powers vie for global business, Dubai is reviving plans to turn Al-Maktoum International into the world’s largest airport, not least preparing for the challenge posed by Saudi Arabia’s eye-watering aviation strategy. The Dubai megaproject’s revival comes as Riyadh pushes to grab a big slice of the international aviation market – if Saudi carriers can overcome the challenge of securing sufficient planes, pilots and passengers needed to meet the kingdom’s hugely ambitious plans.

The UAE has set its sights on carving out a leading international role in artificial intelligence, with national security advisor Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled Bin Mohammed vying for national AI leadership – but the pursuit of the powerful technology is also causing friction with the US

None of the Gulf’s emerging ´middle powers’ have issued a detailed policy document setting out their approach to projecting soft power, even as they continue to spend extravagantly while drawing in investment and talent. Autocracies have no real need to orchestrate the sort of public debate that might follow, even if they regularly sound out local opinion via traditional diwans or more modern polling techniques — not to mention ever more pervasive surveillance of their citizens and others’ communications.

Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah has repeatedly called for a new approach to overhaul Kuwait’s factionalised politics and boost economic reform – a position he restated in his inaugural address on 20 December. But changing a system that appears to encourage stasis rather than co-operation will not be easy for Kuwait’s new, 83 year-old ruler. 

Sheikh Khalid Bin Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan has attempted to cement his status within the political arena and strengthen his profile among local citizens since he was named Abu Dhabi’s crown prince on 29 March, in a move which put the 41 year-old first in line to succeed his father, President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ). 

With increasing amounts of Moscow's business now being transacted through Gulf states, impending G7 and EU sanctions on Russian diamond exports offer opportunities and risks for the Dubai Diamond Exchange, which has grown rapidly to become the largest trading hub in the world for the rough gems. 

Even before the new Gaza war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate had been hostile, as shown in analysis of the International Monetary Fund's new reports on the global outlook and regional economic performance.

The UAE's early September announcement that it had set up a federal gambling regulator is a further sign of how the competition between regional economies is pushing them to diversify into areas that would previously have been regarded as too sensitive or even taboo.

The high-profile campaign to make Saudi Arabia a global power in football, golf and other sports has, in many ways, eclipsed the state's domestic spending – which conventional policy wonks might say should be of greater importance to the 22m population – but the activities of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)'s prized Public Investment Fund (PIF) over the past few months tells an equally important story.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa Al-Sudani's government has launched Iraq down a perilous fiscal path, with an extravagant three-year budget for 2023-25 which gained Council of Representatives (Majlis an-Nuwwab or parliament) approval.

Oman's Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said was unusually active in late May, making trips to Cairo and Tehran in quick succession, just as Egypt and Iran were edging towards a diplomatic rapprochement. Recent reports also suggest Oman may once again be acting as a mediator between Washington and Tehran.

While America and Europe continue to present a united front in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the UAE’s more ambivalent stance continues to cause concern in western capitals – and has the potential to undermine, or at least complicate, the country’s diplomatic and commercial relations with the United States and its allies.