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The wide-reaching reshuffle of defence and security officials has continued, with former Hawwali governor Lieutenant-General Sheikh Ahmed Al-Nawwaf Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – son of Emir Sheikh Nawwaf – named as deputy head of the National Guard with the rank of minister. This follows the September appointment of Ahmed’s brother Major General Sheikh Salem as head of the State Security Bureau.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces deputy supreme commander Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) hosted the Bahraini and Jordanian monarchs, King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa and King Abdullah II, at a trilateral summit on 18 November. The three leaders discussed potential co-operation in security affairs, healthcare and food, as well as ways to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

France is facing criticism and threats of radical action around the Gulf and wider Islamic world after comments by President Emmanuel Macron that his government was determined to fight ‘Islamist separatism’ within parts of the Muslim community. There have been a number of attacks, including the stabbing of a security guard at France’s Jeddah consulate on 29 October.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Riyadh on 10 March – on a whistle-stop tour of three Gulf monarchies – provided an opportunity for his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal Bin Farhan to reaffirm that the Opec+ heavyweights were in alignment. This was an implicit rebuff to reports of significant differences over oil policy, as Moscow has sought bigger quotas for its crude while Riyadh takes the strain with output cuts. Prince Faisal assured a press briefing that “we and Russia would like an oil price which is fair to consumers and to producers.”

Foreign minister Sayyid Badr Al-Busaidi called for greater dialogue between regional adversaries in wide-ranging comments to the Manama Dialogue meeting in Bahrain on 5 December. In his prepared remarks, the Omani FM told the audience: “If we are to avoid misunderstanding, we must maintain engagement and dialogue with everyone… Exclusion, rejection or blockades are not in our diplomatic repertoire.” Al-Busaidi also praised the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with Iran as “one of the most significant American successes in the region in a long time”.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces deputy supreme commander Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) met UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 10 Downing Street on 11 December. The main topic of conversation in London appears to have been an expansion of relations in the post-Brexit era – leveraging Abu Dhabi’s deep pockets and the Conservative government’s ambitions to remake the UK as ‘global Britain’.

Tehran is casting a wary eye to its north-west borders, where Armenia and Azerbaijan have resumed fighting over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but controlled by the Armenia-linked Republic of Artsakh.

The traditional round of prisoner pardons to mark Eid Al-Adha saw more than 1,200 people released from custody across the UAE. The process began on 24 July with an announcement that President Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan had ordered the release of 515 prisoners, accompanied by a pledge to settle their financial debts. On the same day, Ajman Ruler Sheikh Humaid Bin Rashid Al-Nuaimi ordered 62 prisoners who had demonstrated good conduct to be freed immediately.

Sheikh Nawaf takes over from his half-brother at a time of fiscal crisis and wider economic upheaval caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a sclerotic political system. Many question whether the new octogenarian emir has the skills, ambition or good health to decisively deal with the emirate’s many problems, let alone assume the mantle of regional statesman that helped to define Sheikh Sabah’s rule. There is much speculation about further political change ahead 

Plans for Saudi Arabia to launch a television and radio news network to rival Qatar’s Al Jazeera Media Network continue to suffer from unexplained delays as the latest launch date, 1 September, passed without any broadcasts.

A flurry of deals between UAE and Israeli businesses have emerged since the two governments announced their normalisation of relations. Many of the announcements have involved memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and it remains to be seen how many will be converted into meaningful commercial arrangements.

Saudi Arabia has much to lose and Iran probably the most to gain from the victory of President-elect Joe Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris, but all governments will need to adjust their policy positions in key areas in the coming months – without alienating Donald Trump before he leaves office in January.

A royal decree from Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said on 12 October gave confirmation that Oman is to go ahead with the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT), and gave a belated recognition of the fiscal realities facing Muscat.

Appointments to the Shura Council, the Council of Senior Scholars and the Supreme Court, made via a series of royal decrees on 18 October, have entrenched conservative power in the three institutions – although there have been some other related moves in support of the more progressive policies associated with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)’s Vision 2030.

Saudi authorities announced in late September that they had arrested ten members of a terrorist cell, claiming three of them had received explosives training from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran between October and December 2017.