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After a year of turbulence and widespread civil unrest following disputed presidential elections, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government has consolidated its position with the support of the president’s powerful backer, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC or Pasdaran).

Iran
Free

Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, the 14th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, founded in 1750. Oman’s sultan, who deposed his father in a bloodless coup, relies on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite to rule, rather than his relatively small family. Qaboos was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent; his successor is expected to emerge from a small pool of family members. Power remains strongly centralised, but there has been some modernisation.

Oman
Issue 989 - 19 March 2015

Risk Management Report: Kuwait

Free

Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say and political parties are banned. But the 50-member assembly has proven vibrant, and Kuwaiti politics the most participatory in the Gulf. The downside of this experiment in partial democracy has been the constant friction between the elected parliament and the appointed government, which has often resulted in paralysis of the state. Kuwait’s media is one of the most outspoken in the region but, since 2011, the government has cracked down on criticism of Islam or of the ruling family. The downward trend arrow on Kuwait’s political risk grade reflects the potential for political instability as members of the ruling family jostle for position; the emir is in his mid-eighties and, while his half-brother Nawaf is expected to succeed him, there is uncertainty about where power will go next. Externally, there have been serious crises with Iraq in the 1970s, Iran in the 1980s and the occupation by Iraq in 1990. Emir Sabah sometimes plays a mediating role within the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and, in the past year, has shown himself willing to rebuild ties with Iran.

Kuwait
Free

The opposition wrote itself out of the Kuwaiti parliament by boycotting December’s elections, and as a result there has been less tension between parliament and government. The assembly has managed to pass a number of bills and motions, approving a much-delayed draft law to privatise Kuwait Airways, and awarding the contract for the Az-Zour North independent water and power project – the first contract since the Partnerships Technical Bureau was established in 2008. But while the opposition has been less vocal in recent months, frustrations remain liable to erupt.

Kuwait
Issue 988 - 05 March 2015

Risk management report: Iraq

Free

ISLAMIC STATE: The main news story of 2014 – not just for Iraq, but for the region – was the rapid advance of extremist Sunnis from the IS militant group, who, with the help of various local Sunni groups and former Baathists, moved beyond their strongholds in Al-Anbar and took Mosul and large parts of northern Iraq in June, and declared a caliphate across the territories they hold in Syria and Iraq. The US launched an air campaign (Operation Inherent Resolve) against IS targets in August, and has since been joined by a number of other nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan, though Abadi has said Baghdad does not want any foreign land intervention. Months of airstrikes and army, Peshmerga and Shiite militia efforts have contained IS and prevented the group reaching the capital, but the jihadists retain considerable territory in Al-Anbar and Salahaddin. On 1 March, Iraq’s armed forces (who melted away in the face of IS’ rapid advance), boosted by Shiite militia, began a major offensive north of Baghdad, hoping to retake the town of Tikrit and the surrounding province of Salahaddin. According to Reuters, a US official said in February that an operation to retake Mosul could start as early as April, but others suggest it is more likely to wait until the autumn.

Iraq
Free

Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say and political parties are banned. But the 50-member assembly has proven more vibrant than expected, and Kuwait has often been held up as a beacon for democratisation in the region.

Kuwait
Free

The UAE has a reputation as one of the most stable countries in the region since it was formed in 1971. But regional unrest and the authorities’ apparent stick and carrot approach should cause observers to question the medium to long-term sustainability of the federation’s current political arrangements.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Free

Opposition is not well tolerated, and the prime minister has again been grilled by MPs, this time over the heavy-handed police crackdown on a rally in December that left five people injured. The protest was against a ‘government plot’ to amend the constitution, and lift the parliamentary immunity of maverick Islamist Faisal Al-Muslim

Kuwait
Free

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) announced on 30 April that it had chosen Royal Dutch Shell as partner in a 30-year joint venture (JV) to develop the Bab sour gas fields in Abu Dhabi, whose value is estimated at around $10bn. Shell will hold a 40% stake in the JV, with Adnoc holding the remainder.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 1004 - 12 November 2015

Risk Management Report: UAE

Free

Established in 1971, the federation of the seven emirates of Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al- Quwain is a liberal and progressive state as far as the economy goes, but remains politically conservative. The federal government has legislative and executive jurisdiction over areas including foreign affairs, security and defence, air traffic control, education, public health, currency, electricity and immigration. Each emirate retains considerable economic independence and control over mineral rights and revenues. Oil-rich Abu Dhabi has been dominant, and its ruler, Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, is president of the federation. Each emirate’s ruler sits on the Supreme Council, the highest executive and legislative authority. The Council of Ministers makes most federal decisions, while the Federal National Council (FNC) acts as an advisory council. FNC elections were held in October.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 1023 - 07 October 2016

Risk Management Report: Kuwait

Free

Politics: Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah since 2006 – retains final say. Parties are banned, but associations and factions are active, creating opposition blocs in the 50-member Majlis Al-Umma (National Assembly) and the Gulf’s most participatory politics. The downside of this experiment in partial democracy has been constant friction between the elected parliament and appointed government, which has often resulted in paralysis of the state.

Kuwait
Free

Iraq has felt some of the revolutionary zeal that has taken hold in the Arab world, with hundreds of people protesting against corruption and high unemployment. Some have died and some injured in clashes with police.

Iraq
Free

In 2009, massive protests about alleged vote rigging in a presidential election that saw the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad prompted a brutal crackdown on reformists; two reformist leaders,Mehdi Karroubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, have been under house arrest since 2011. The June 2013 election of cleric Hassan Rouhani, who is seen as more moderate than Ahmadinejad, has raised hopes that some degree of political freedom may return.

Iran
Free

In a series of decrees on 14 May, King Abdullah made a number of changes at the defence ministry, apparently at the request of Crown Prince Salman. He removed Salman Bin Sultan as deputy minister of defence and replaced him with Khalid Bin Bandar, the Riyadh governor.While there had been rumours for some time that Salman Bin Sultan would go, the timing of the announcement was unexpected, coming just after the close of a major regional defence conference attended by US defence secretary Chuck Hagel.

Saudi Arabia
Free

A move towards elections was promised mid-decade, but a change in the ruling families’ social compact with their populations to promote ‘democracy’ has not been forthcoming. Sheikh Khalifa’s 2010 National Day address on 2 December was notable for its lack of any pledge to introduce more accountable elections to the ‘consultative’ FNC.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)