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There have been scarcely any reports of renewed incidents of violence among Saudi Arabia's Shiite minority at the beginning of this month. The Saudi authorities evidently managed an almost complete clampdown on information, yet there is no doubt that considerable rioting took place. But serious though the disturbances are, there seems little prospect of them spreading to the Sunni majority of the kingdom.

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The complex tale of Italy's direct oil dealings with Saudi Arabia have taken another turn with a suggestion that a new agreement may be negotiable. If the Saudis are prepared to change their minds, it is evidence of disagreement at the top in Saudi Arabia and perhaps of a linked arms deal. But whatever happens, the Saudis do not want to get involved again in the muddy waters of Italian politics.

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Now that the Japanese have given the go ahead for the first of Saudi Arabia's petrochemical joint ventures, more might be expected to follow. But there are still questions to be answered regarding oil entitlements and the pricing of gas feedstocks. Any reduction of the entitlement is going to make foreign partners less willing to take the very real commercial risks involved in the projects.

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Within the space of a few months South Korea's President Chung Park Hee has been assassinated and S Y Park, Hyundai's manager of Saudi operations, has been allegedly arrested on grounds of bribery. It is tempting to draw conclusions from this coincidence of name and timing about the spread of South Korea's economic malaise into its contractors' operational abilities in the kingdom.

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Italy's ENI is the subject of scandalous rumours surrounding a highly advantageous direct oil supply agreement made in the summer with Saudi Arabia. For local political reasons, the issue has become a cause celebre in Italy, but if any more revelations come out the Saudis are quite liable to rethink their policy of selling oil directly to a government which cannot avoid scandal.

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South Yemeni President Abdul Fattah Ismail is due to visit Saudi Arabia shortly, marking an upturn in relations between two countries with diametrically opposed political sympathies. In the present conjuncture of Gulf rivalries, it makes considerable sense for Riyadh to make friendly noises to Aden even though Ismail has signed a 20-year friendship and cooperation treaty with the Soviet Union.

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The recent IMF internal report on Saudi Arabia suggested that a clampdown on offshore trading in the riyal was imminent, as the Ministry of Finance became more worried about speculation in the currency. The move to price larger contracts in dollars should prove a more effective way of regaining control than irksome legislation or applying informal pressure on offenders.

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New doubts have arisen about the scale and future of Saudi Arabia's ambitious petrochemical plans. Shell Oil of the United States has indicated that talks on its joint venture with the Saudis for an ethylene complex at Jubail have stalled. Issues which have to be settled before an agreement is reached include oil entitlements, gas prices, marketing and progress on a parallel oil-export refinery scheme.

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OPEC's price hawks are on the wing and the spot market is bullish. Saudi Arabia is trying desperately to hold the ring and dampen price pressure by maintaining its higher production ceiling for another quarter. But if the market continues to run against it, then Saudi strategy is paving the way for a very angry OPEC conference in December - and perhaps another OPEC split.

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Saudi interest in diversifying sources of arms supplies is reviving as Riyadh's refusal to back the Egyptian peace treaty raises antagonism in the US Congress. Waiting in the wings to make a major penetration of the Gulf arms market is one of the Third World's largest producers, Brazil. The Brazilians are prepared to go for barter deals, and their machinery is more adaptable to Middle East conditions.

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The concerted campaign against oil companies in the United States has led to congressional reappraisal of the foreign tax credits they receive. Cutbacks in these credits would however reduce Aramco's expansion budget in the Kingdom, as well as appear to the Saudis like further criticism of the level of revenue they justifiably expect from their vital depletable resource.

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The performance of the dollar is worrying OPEC again. The chances are that Saudi Arabia will manage to forestall any action, but the fight to do so will be tougher than it has been in the past.

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An inconclusive three-day subcommittee hearing in the House of Representatives into the question of OPEC investment in the United States has perceptibly angered the Saudis. Even Congress' General Accounting Office (GAO) admitted that OPEC funds posed no real threat to the American economy or banks, although it questioned the fact that these countries' holdings are not individually disclosed.

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As president Giscard d'Estaing stopped off in Abu Dhabi this month on his way to the Pacific, Defence Minister Yvon Bourges was eagerly negotiating a new round of French arms contracts with the Saudis. The French have in mind an integrated deal to equip, organize and train three armoured brigades. The purpose behind the bid to sell arms to Saudi Arabia is to cover their oil import bill.

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Pre-Geneva bargaining has turned into reality: the Saudis have finally and unequivocally announced that they are raising production on a temporary basis. The real reason for this move - to calm the market and stabilize prices - shines through the transparency of the official announcement's claim that the Kingdom needs extra revenue to fund its development program, but still does not guarantee success.