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The discovery of oil in North Yemen will give rise to some fast and furious thinking in many quarters, if the discovery proves to be the forerunner of substantial oil resources in the country. As the saying goes in Opec's headquarters in Vienna, 7,000 barrels of oil do not an Opec member make, but there is not an oil producing country in the world that does not know how quickly and how vastly a viable oil industry can transform the political and economic circumstances of any state.

Following the establishment of the kingdom's air defence zone, stretching probably about forty miles into Gulf waters, Saudi Arabia has increased its air patrols over Gulf shipping lanes. Royal Saudi Airforce (RSAF) pilots now have orders to scramble their aircraft as soon as any unauthorised air-craft enter the perimeter of the zone, marked by the so-called 'Fahd Line', where they are authorised to defend 'certain ships'. These ships have not been specified 'but are believed to include tankers owned by the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states under threat of Iranian attack. Standing order to RSAF pilots regarding aircraft which invade Saudi airspace is to 'shoot on sight'.

Saudi Arabia and its fellow partners in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) have pinned their hopes on the United Nations to prevent a further escalation of the Gulf war. The emergency GCC Foreign Ministers' meeting, which met in Taif after the Iranian attacks on neutral shipping in the Gulf, decided, as Secretary General Abdullah Bishara put it, 'to pursue the path of amicable settlement and dialogue as the effective and viable means for finding positive and common background'. Bishara also reiterated the Gulf countries' deep conviction on self reliance in defence, and emphasised that the policy of 'open bridges and constructive dialogue' can never be at the expense of national interests.

The Gulf Co-operation Council scored a reasonable success with its first-ever resort to the United Nations Security Council, over the complaint against Iran's attacks on neutral shipping in the Gulf. The GCC did not get all it asked for but, almost certainly, obtained most of what it hoped and expected. By thirteen votes, the 15-member Council voted in favour of a revise GCC resolution calling on 'all states' to respect the right of free navigation in the Gulf and refrain from any act which may lead to further escalation and widening of the conflict. Two states, Nicaragua and Zimbabwe, abstained.

The execution of Iran's long-standing threat to disrupt the oil shipments of other Gulf states has begun to be put into effect. Arab reaction, at least on the diplomatic front, was swift and fairly decisive. The Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states held an extraordinary meeting in Riyadh, at which Iran was roundly accused of aggression, and it was decided to take the issue to the UN. The subject of the Iranian attacks on Arab-owned shipping was also put on the agenda of the delayed Arab League Foreign Ministers' meeting, held in Tunis.

The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) comes, on 25 May, to the third anniversary of its founding. Against a background of an Arab world marked by declared and undeclared wars, civil strife, hostility between individual states, ideological quarrels, political rivalries, attempted insurrection and ruinous policy differences, for the GCC to have survived at all is something for the six member states to celebrate.

The reconciliation of old and new in Saudi Arabia is a common and constant theme throughout the country. The tug-of-war between tradition and modernity is not exclusive to the kingdom; it is manifest in many developing nations. The issue has a sharper focus and perhaps a larger impact in Saudi Arabia, where the pace of change has been spectacularly fast, widespread and pervasive.

The increasing attention being paid to area - as opposed to regional - interests by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation (GCC) is reflected in Saudi Arabia's current low-key involvement in the problems of Lebanon. Previously, the kingdom was active in many levels and in various directions over the situation in Lebanon. More recently, there has been a noticeable diminution of Saudi efforts in the affairs of Lebanon, although that should not be taken as a lessening of " Saudi Arabian interest there. The present thrust of the kingdom's concerns, however, along with its five partner states in the GCC, is closer to home. More particularly, the Iran- Iraq war intrudes more and more into the GCC's scheme of things, dictating an unwelcome course of events and threatening a fearful interruption to the GCC's policies and programmes.

Saudi Arabia is one of the committee of seven, charged by last month's Baghdad Foreign Ministers' meeting to lobby industrial countries to end any action on their part which leads to a continuation of the Gulf war. It was not so stated, but the committee would be trying to close off support for Iran. Six Arab Foreign Ministers and the Arab League Secretary General would not, it may be confidently assumed, be seeking the shut-down of industrial nations' supplies to Iraq.

SAUDI ARABIA and its fellow members in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) will attend the emergency meeting of Arab Foreign Ministers in Baghdad, summoned by the Arab League at Iraq's request. The Iraqi call for an extraordinary meeting is to discuss what Iraq's Deputy Premier, Tariq Aziz, described as 'The threat to the Arab world from Iranian aggression'.

PRINCE ABDULLAH BIN ABDUL AZIZ will, later this month, make his first visit to Europe and the UK since he became Crown Prince. Official sources in London confirmed that Prince Abdullah has accepted an invitation from Prime Minister Mrs. Margaret Thatcher for wide-ranging talks on Middle East issues. A Downing Street spokesman said an announcement would be made when the final arrangements for the visit are completed.

THE SPATE OF ARMS DEALS, actual or potential, in which the kingdom is currently involved, has sparked off sharp reactions from Israel. An Israeli official in the Prime Minister's office was quoted in Bonn as saying that weapons purchased by Saudi Arabia from West Germany might well 'force' Israel into launching a pre-emptive attack against the kingdom. This kind of verbal belligerence will not be taken very seriously, least of all by Saudi Arabia itself - but it does indicate the degree of alarm with which the Israeli government regards Arab arms acquisition.

FOREIGN MINISTER PRINCE SAUD AL FAISAL chaired the Preparatory Meeting of Foreign Ministers of 43 countries, which drew up the agenda for the Fourth Islamic Summit which met in Casablanca from 16 to 18 January. In closed-door sessions, the ministers elected the Bureau of the Conference, with Morocco taking the Presidency, Palestine the Deputy Presidency and Malaysia and Gabon as members. The Foreign Ministers formed four committees - the Political Committee headed by Prince Saud al Faisal, the Economic Committee chaired by Moroccan Trade Minister Izzedin al Jassous, the Cultural Committee led by Moroccan Education Minister Izzedin al Iraqi, and the Drafting Committee, which groups the Conference Secretariats, Morocco and other countries.

THE GRAVE TURN OF EVENTS IN LEBANON will cause nothing but glum consternation to the government of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has worked long and hard to mediate in the issues facing the Arab world in Lebanon, and not without some success. The American air attacks on Syrian positions, following so shortly after the revival of the US-Israel strategic accord, makes those efforts now almost wasted and must force Riyadh to reconsider more than one of its political and diplomatic positions.

BRITISH DEFENCE MINISTER, Michael Heseltine, is to make a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia in mid-December, for defence and political talks with the Saudi authorities. Government sources in London have confirmed that the talks between the British minister and his Saudi counterparts will cover mutual defence interests, the Iran-Iraq war, the Arab-Israeli dispute and the situation in the Lebanon. The London sources say that Heseltine's visit reflects the great importance the British government attaches to political and defence relations with the kingdom.