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THE HEADS OF STATE of the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states meet for their fourth Summit in Qatar in an atmosphere of uncertainty and confusion, writes a Newsletters correspondent from Doha. At the time of going to press no resolutions have yet been passed, but it is already clear that the Conference is faced with a host of problems over which it has little control

AN INTRIGUING NEW ELEMENT has been introduced into the general situation in the Gulf, with reports of US moves to set up a Jordanian " army strike force for use in emergencies in the region. Congressional and Administration sources in Washington have confirmed the Administration's request to Congress for $225m of funds to enable two Jordanian army brigades to be equipped for a 'rapid deployment force' role. Under the plan, the United States would supply C-130 transport aircraft, medical evacuation transports and advanced infantry and river-crossing equipment.

DURING THE PAST FIVE YEARS military expenditure in the Middle East has increased at a far higher rate than in any other area of the world, according to the authoritative London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). In the latest edition of its annual publication, 'The Military Balance', the Institute notes that since 1978 defence expenditure in the Middle East has risen at an average rate of 7% a year - an overall increase of 35%.

THE RETURN OF SAUDI ARABIA to the forefront of the diplomatic stage in the crisis in Lebanon ends any possibility of the kingdom retreating into a " 'fortress Arabia' policy. Yet the possibility was real enough when, earlier this month, the Saudi cabinet announced a 'freeze' on its efforts to mediate between the conflicting parties in Lebanon. In an accompanying statement, the cabinet noted "that its good offices have not led to the desired result and not achieved the hoped-for aspirations". The pessimistic view represented by the cabinet decision was well enough supported by the evidence of the situation in Lebanon, and no government regards the reinforcement of failure with any enthusiasm.

A YEAR AGO President Reagan announced his peace plan for the Middle East; King Fahd tried again, and again at Fez, to support, and amend it. Both plans have gone into the dustbin. A year has passed in which the United States has become deeply committed throughout the area; the PLO has been extinguished as a threat to Israel; Arafat has deserted Hafiz Assad - or vice versa, according to choice; Iran has begun to bleed Iraq to economic death; Opec has demonstrated its inability to control non-member producers; Begin, after five years of alternating aggression and conciliation, has resigned.

AS WASHINGTON, Paris - and Moscow - issue increasingly grave warnings about the situation in Chad, Arab capitals remain silent. Few aspects of Middle East and North African affairs strike the Western observer more forcefully than lack of comment on matters which are serious, and urgently require alleviation. Concerning Chad, lack of comment, let alone any proposals for concerted action, enables the super powers and their allies or satellites to continue arbitrating matters which properly belong to Arabs alone.

THE FOREIGN MINISTERS of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states are due to meet in Taif on 22 August, for the eight session of the GCC Ministerial Council. The Council's Assistant Secretary General, Ibrahim al Subhi, said in Riyadh that the Foreign Ministers would assess the activities of the GCC over the past two years and review the next stages of the implementation of the Unified Economic Agreement between the six member states.

THE RECENT VISITS TO THE KINGDOM of Syria's Deputy Premier and Foreign Minister Abdul Halim Khaddam and PLO chief Yasser Arafat mirrors, in part, Saudi Arabia's currently uneasy position in the inter-Arab political field. Both the Arab leaders came to seek, in one measure or another, Saudi support for their widely separated and basically opposing postures and the pleas and arguments they advanced will have done nothing to reduce Saudi qualms about the present situation in the region.

The expulsion of Yasir Arafat from Syria thrusts the factional schism within the Palestine Liberation Organisation irreversibly into the larger arena of inter-Arab politics. The Syrian action means that other Arab governments can no longer regard the mutiny in the PLO as an internal affair of the Organisation, nor can those governments limit themselves to neutral exhortations to the Palestinians to end the dissension in their ranks.

Joint military exercises are to be staged by the six countries of the GCC in October, Kuwait's Defence Minister Shaikh Salem al Sabah has confirmed. Speaking to the press in Kuwait, Shaikh Salem said that the GCC Defence Ministers had asserted that such a Gulf joint exercise can bring Army commanders together and create a GCC Rapid Deployment Force (RDF) which can repel any external attack against any member state.

The Gulf Co-operation Council marked the second anniversary of its existence on 25 May with the distribution in Britain of 5000 copies of an information folder on the six member organisation. The GCC has also established a 'liaison office' in London, the first GCC sponsored body to be set up outside of the gulf.

The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) has taken a new initiative in the continuing war between Iran and Iraq, following the emergency GCC Foreign Ministers' meeting held earlier this month. The Foreign Ministers' agreement to make another effort to end the conflict caused the postponement of the regular ministerial session of GCC foreign ministers, which was to have been held on May 15

Indications of a new economic strategy being formulated by Saudi Arabian planners suggest the kingdom may be following, to a degree, the downstream petrochemicals route being blazed by Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. An ad hoc committee has been formed with key planners from the Saudi ministries of Finance, Industry, Planning and oil, plus experts from Saudi Arabian Basic Industries (SABIC), the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) and Petromin, the state oil company.

With the shelving of the Reagan Initiative, whether permanently or temporarily, the Arab states now have the time and opportunity to pause and take stock of their current political situation. Saudi Arabia, with Jordan and the PLO, was a critical element in the Reagan equation, as evidenced by President Reagan's telephone call to King Fahd when King Hussein announced his withdrawal from the peace negotiations.

The periodic rumours of internal trouble in Saudi Arabia are hardy perennials in the foreign press and any travellers tale which hints of the impending coup d'etat is eagerly and extensively publicised. Usually, the regime in the kingdom impassively ignores such reports, preferring, it would seem, to let the lack of event provide the answers. The intense interest displayed by the outside world in the stability of Saudi Arabia is, if nothing else, a flattering recognition of the international importance the country now has.