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Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al-Khalifa visited Kuwait on 12-13 June, meeting Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and other senior officials. Security co-operation was among issues at the top of the agenda. Sheikh Khalifa was seen off at Kuwait International Airport by Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, first deputy premier and foreign minister Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah other senior ministers, advisors and officials.

The UAE has gained approval from Washington to buy $2.7bn worth of Patriot missile equipment, including 452 PAC-3 missile segment enhancement (MSE) missiles and related equipment. The MSE is an upgrade on previous Patriot missiles, offering greater range and mobility. The main contractors are Raytheon Corporation and Lockheed Martin.

Salman has emerged as a major player only in the past few years. As recently as 2007, it was thought he was marginal in shaping government policy and overshadowed by his powerful great-uncle, prime minister Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al-Khalifa,

Will Mohammad Khatami secure the backing of Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his presidential comeback bid this summer? Unlikely as this might have seemed even weeks ago, Iranian political observers, whose debates GSN has joined in the past week, are agreed that this may be the decisive question

The success of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Shia militia and other allies in regaining control of Tikrit will provide critical indicators of Iraq’s ability to roll back the challenge of Islamic State (IS) and the Sunni rebellion that in 2014 allowed Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi to anoint himself ‘Caliph Ibrahim’ in Mosul. Western reporting of the assault on Salahaddin province, launched on 1 March, focused on prime minister Haider Al-Abadi’s insistence that a restructured ISF, its Shia militia allies and their all too obvious Iranian handlers should do everything possible not to alienate the region’s Sunni tribes and others who may dislike IS but have even more reason to fear their ‘liberators’.

It has been an eventful year in the Gulf. Against a backdrop of wider regional turmoil – the civil war in Syria and the overthrow of Egypt’s Mohammed Morsi (GSN 951/1) – the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states have been broadly stable, their political currents stirred but not redirected by events elsewhere. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz seemed keen to get his house in order, promoting several younger members of the Al-Saud, and delivering on a promise made in 2011 to appoint women to the Majlis Al-Shura (GSN 948/5, 946/6, 942/1, 941/1, 940/1, 939/20).

Emir Sheikh Hamad in Europe

The dispatch of a high-level Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) delegation to Tehran on 16 July was another sign of the swelling domestic and foreign unease at Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani’s almost indecent haste in pushing for an independence referendum in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The signs are that Kurds will vote for independence from Baghdad on 25 September, which will severely complicate relations with Shia-dominated Iraq and the wider region.

Defence ministers of the GCC states, meeting in Kuwait, endorsed an earlier proposal by Oman that the Peninsula Shield joint defence force be increased tenfold to 100,000 men. Currently the Peninsula Shield force, based at Hafr Al-Batin in north-eastern Saudi Arabia, has a strength of about 10,000 men.

Reports are emerging of potentially serious strains in the UAE federation, linked to realignments in the domestic political balance and growing stress from involvement in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen – which has previously been seen as forging a more assertive national identity. At play are Abu Dhabi’s increasing domination of federal-level positions, coupled with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ)’s effective takeover of the presidency. It is reflected in a recurrence of tension with Ras Al-Khaimah (RAK).

Saudi Arabia’s new king, Salman Bin Abdelaziz Al-Saud, has determined where succession will go once it finally passes to the next generation. King Salman wasted no time in appointing his Sudairi nephew Mohammed Bin Nayef deputy crown prince, and has named his son Mohammed defence minister and chief of the Royal Court.

While governments around the Gulf struggle to come to terms with what the looming Donald Trump presidency might mean for them in terms of changes to US foreign policy – an imprecise science given the lack of clarity or consistency from the president-elect – another aspect of the maverick billionaire’s victory ought to be rising up their list of concerns: the potential impact of his domestic policies, which could indirectly pile more pressure on Gulf currencies pegged to the dollar, leading to higher interest rates and slower economic growth.

HSBC has appointed Mohammed Al-Tuwaijri as chief executive of HSBC Middle East and North Africa, effective 1 October. He replaces Simon Cooper, who moves to the role of chief executive of global commercial banking. Tuwaijri, who is currently regional head of global banking and markets at HSBC’s investment banking unit, joined HSBC Middle East in Dubai in 2010 from JP Morgan. He was appointed to the board of HSBC Bank Middle East in February. Before becoming a banker, he was a pilot in the Royal Saudi Air Force.

King Salman is to travel to Turkey to attend the 15-16 November G-20 summit in Antalya. According to Turkish media reports, he has booked the entire Mardan Palace Hotel for his 18-day stay. Hürriyet daily reported that the cost of booking the hotel would run to $18m; red carpets will be laid in hallways and on the helipad; hotel staff are receiving special training. Built by Russian businessman Telman Ismailov in 2009, the hotel was recently acquired by Turkish state-owned Halkbank.

The new emir has held several meetings with foreign officials who have called into Doha to deliver congratulations. On 11 July, Sheikh Tamim met former British prime minister and special envoy of the International Quartet for the Middle East, Tony Blair. They discussed Palestine and other regional developments.