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The Iraqi Air Force’s F-16 programme will continue for another six months, having been at risk after allegations that Iran-backed militias had become involved.

Iraq
Issue 1194 - 05 December 2024

UAE: Hazza Bin Zayed takes over in Al-Ain

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Abu Dhabi deputy ruler Sheikh Hazza Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan has been appointed as the ruler's representative in Al-Ain region – a role traditionally given to senior members of the family.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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During a hectic period for regional diplomacy, the Saudi crown prince visited his neighbour for the first time in three years, as Mohammed Bin Salman flew in to Al-Ain for talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed.

Saudi Arabia
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The issue leads with Syria, where the dramatic end to Bashir Al-Assad’s rule has created another crisis for Iran’s regional strategy and is an unnerving moment for Gulf monarchies which, in the name of ‘stability’, had been rebuilding ties with a Damascus regime that seemed to have survived a decade-plus of civil war. Diplomatic strategies will now have to be hastily redrawn, with an initial focus on ensuring Syria does not slide further into turmoil. GSN also takes a look at indications that Qatar is looking to distance itself from Hamas, following an early November announcement that it has halted its mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas, citing the two sides’ unwillingness to engage positively. Finance and business coverage leads with Qatar, which confirmed a £1bn ($1.3bn) investment in a clean energy programme with the United Kingdom, during a state visit by Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani in early December. Sovereign wealth watch examines news that The Iraq Fund for Development (IFD) is in “serious negotiations” with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund over a promised $3bn investment deal. Energy and industry coverage includes a look at news that Adnoc  has broken ground on its Ruwais LNG megaproject, plus the award of $8bn of contracts to develop more gas-fired power plants in Saudi Arabia Arabia. The Risk Management Report is on Iran.  Tehran has ramped up activity in its nuclear programme, against the backdrop of regional turmoil and amid the risk of further clashes with a more belligerent Israel. While still insisting it has no plans to develop a nuclear bomb, Iran has been adding to its stockpile of enriched uranium – albeit still at a level below weapons-grade – and clashing with western powers and the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. The GSN View examines Saudi Arabia's diversification drive. The start of Riyadh Metro services in December was a positive sign of progress in the region’s biggest economy. But for all the hype about the kingdom’s shift away from its historic reliance on oil revenues, hydrocarbons are as vital to the economy today as they were when Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman launched his Vision 2030 diversification strategy in 2016. The turnover of key executives suggests the Saudi top team is unhappy with progress to date.  

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Islamist rebel group HTS’s rapid advances against Syrian regime forces have put the GCC countries’ recent strategy of re-engagement with Bashar Al-Assad’s regime into question. The volatile situation also complicates efforts to bring the Gaza and Lebanon wars to a definite conclusion and raises the spectre of turmoil spreading further across the region.

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A major commitment to clean energy was made during Emir Sheikh Tamim’s state visit to the UK in early December.

Qatar
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QatarEnergy has added to its existing holdings in two promising areas off the coast of Namibia, where TotalEnergies made the giant Venus oil discovery in February 2022.

Qatar
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Saudi Power Procurement Company has awarded contracts to develop and operate four CCGT plants with 7GW-plus combined generating capacity to two consortia who will receive 25-year power purchase agreements.

Saudi Arabia
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President Emmanual Macron had hoped to secure more contracts for French companies during his three-day visit to Riyadh and Al-Ula, but few significant announcements were made during the trip which coincided with his government being voted down in the French parliament.

Saudi Arabia
Issue 1194 - 09 December 2024

Syria’s new de facto leader

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The new arbiter of power in Damascus, at least for now, is HTS’ 42-year-old leader Ahmed Hussein Al-Sharaa, widely known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al-Golani (sometimes written Al-Jolani). Al-Sharaa has some Gulf ties, having spent the early years of his life in Saudi Arabia, where his father worked as an engineer in the oil industry. He later fought against the US forces in Iraq following the 2003 invasion, where he was captured and jailed. He returned to Syria in 2011 and set up an Al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant.

Syria
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Iranian officials have revived the idea of building a tunnel under the Gulf to Qatar – an idea that previously suggested in 2022. The megaproject would require a tunnel with an underwater section of at least 185km – almost five times further than the current longest submarine tunnel in the world. Officials are due to hold discussions in Doha in the coming weeks, but the limited levels of bilateral trade mean the megaprojects is unlikely to make economic sense.

Iran | Qatar
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The RAK casino project being developed by Wynn Resorts received a gaming licence from the UAE’s General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority in early October. Wynn has said it expects at least two competitors to gain licences in the future, helping to drive RAK’s economic growth.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Sheikh Saud Bin Mohammed Al-Thani’s legacy has been the subject of numerous court hearings in Qatar and the Caribbean, but the process may now be nearing an end, after a ruling that the ‘substantial’ assets the prominent art collector left in the British Virgin Islands were covered by his will.

Qatar
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Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund has bought a minority stake in Audi’s motor racing venture, which is due to launch in 2026, with press speculation pointing to a $350m outlay in return for a 30% stake in the team.

Qatar
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Iran’s relationship with United Nation’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and with western powers has soured markedly in recent weeks, in the wake of a visit to Tehran by IAEA chief Rafael Grossi on 14 November. Grossi had been pushing for greater access to Iran by IAEA inspectors and to discuss uranium traces found at a number of sites around the country, but appeared to make little or no progress.

Iran