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Recently appointed US ambassador Steven Bondy has been reprimanded by his hosts after meeting civil society activists. After Bondy presented his credentials to King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa on 9 February, he later met four activists at his residence, the local Delmon Post reported.

The government is hiring financial advisers with a view to selling sell stakes in some of its oil and gas assets. A deal could involve a stock market listing or a private sale.

Amid reports of a possibly imminent reinstatement of a reworked Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, it is likely that Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon capability may again slow down. While that will be welcomed by its regional foes, military planners’ attention is likely to switch to missiles and other categories of weaponry. GSN assesses the balance of forces and how Iran, Saudi Arabia, other GCC states and Israel are likely to further arm themselves with missile technology.

Other Gulf states have smaller missile inventories, which could be used in any future conflict with Iran. GSN examines the missile capabilities of UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.

GSN Risk Grade: C↑3↓ Recent developments Golden visas: Bahrain has followed the UAE and (more recent) Saudi lead by easing its visa rules to entice more investors and skilled immigrants. A new ‘golden residency visa’ programme was announced by the cabinet on 7 February.

Turkey’s rehabilitation among its erstwhile critics in the Gulf is continuing apace. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia and the UAE later in February.

Protocol often seems to overwhelm normal news flow in Bahrain, as senior officials – most of them from the Al-Khalifa family – receive foreign visitors and congratulate each other at dutifully-reported occasions and in myriad telegrams. Any hint of speculation about the balance of power in the ruling Al-Khalifa family remains deeply hidden.

Bahrain and the UAE are facing uncomfortable attention following the extradition of Bahraini national Ahmed Jaafar Mohamed Ali from Serbia on 24 January, which happened despite a European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruling that it should not go ahead. Ali appears to have been flown from Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport on board a Bombardier Global 5000 business jet – tail number A6-RJC – owned by Abu Dhabi-based Royal Jet.

Bahrain’s latest GSN Risk Management Report remains unchanged at C3 with the political outlook showing positive momentum while the economic and financial outlook is negative. GCC allies led by Saudi Arabia are pressing harder for economic reforms. The oil price hike may generate some extra funds and but difficult deficit reduction measures are needed. King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa appears to be concentrating more power in the hands of Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, but in an opaque public sphere there is also speculation about his standing compared to that of his brother Sheikh Nasser. Majority Shia community concerns over social disadvantage and human rights abuses remain a big issue that gains only a limited hearing from the authorities and much of the media.

Political rapprochement between GCC rivals, along with rich pickings from high oil prices and a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout meant the past year has been a relatively benign one for those outside the region’s conflict zones, according to GSN’s annual survey of developments across the region. In this special issue, we present refreshed Risk Management Reports for each of the nine countries in the region (as well as the Kurdistan region and individual UAE emirates) and some big picture analysis to complement GSN’s usual detailed focus on the minutiae of political and business life.

A royal decree appointing Sheikh Ali Bin Abdulrahman Bin Ali Al-Khalifa as Bahrain’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia was formally issued by King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa on 28 December. Ali took his oath before the monarch at Al-Sakhir Palace on the day.

Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa has been awarded a medal named after himself, for his services to the healthcare sector during the Covid-19 pandemic. The heir apparent’s father King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa conferred the Prince Salman Bin Hamad Medal for Medical Merit on his son at Sakhir Palace in Manama on 16 December. 

Several leaders sent deputies to the 42nd Gulf Co-operation Council summit in Riyadh in mid-December, which nevertheless made progress in reuniting the regional bloc after several years of division. Poor health prevented some heads of state from attending but this was not the only reason.

After nearly a year of post-Qatar boycott rapprochement, Gulf Co-operation Council leaders stressed their unity at the 42nd GCC summit in Riyadh. The 14 December summit was marked by Saudi Arabia’s efforts to put more focus on the perceived threats from Iran.

Sheikh Ahmed Bin Isa Bin Khalifa Al-Khalifa was appointed undersecretary for ports and maritime affairs at the Transportation and Telecommunications Ministry, in a decree issued by King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa on 30 November. Sheikh Ahmed had previously been assistant undersecretary for nationality, passports and residence affairs.