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The US Navy has set up a new multinational task force to patrol the seas around Yemen and nearby areas. The task force will have a presence in the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden.

Questions are again being asked about the UAE’s long-term intentions for Socotra, with signs it may be looking to further cement its position on the island, in part by highlighting its differences from mainland Yemen.

An attempt by GCC secretary-general Nayef Al-Hajraf to convene a fresh round of dialogue in Riyadh for Yemen war belligerents appears to have failed, with the Houthis refusing to take part. However, there are signs of further Saudi-inspired political initiatives to break the stalemate on the ground, which could have significant consequences for President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the wider political process.

The GCC talks on the Yemen conflict which began in Riyadh on 29 March – with the notable absence of any Houthi representatives – could be used to announce a major package of economic assistance for President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government from the Gulf states.

A consignment of 52 Iranian-made Dehlavieh anti-tank missiles has been intercepted at the Al-Mazyunah border crossing between Oman and Yemen. The missiles were hidden in a consignment of four electrical generators, which had been rigged to appear fully operational should they have been test-run at the border.

The United Nations raised less than one-third of the amount it had aimed for at the High-Level Pledging Event for the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen on 16 March, which was co-hosted by the governments of Sweden and Switzerland.

The Houthi movement has signed a memorandum of understanding with the United Nations to allow 1.1m bbl of crude oil to be taken off the stranded SFO Safer, the rusting tanker close to Hodeidah port.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces was widely expected, but most Gulf states were slow to make any public statements in response as they sought to avoid taking sides between the US – which remains the region’s most important international player for all its reduced enthusiasm for policing the Gulf – and Russia, which is an important ally in setting oil prices, selling military equipment and providing a model of 21st century autocracy. Amid the muted rhetoric, clear differences have appeared between GCC states.

Houthi attempts to fire missiles at the UAE in January underlined the Yemeni rebel movement’s ability to project drones and basic missiles across a wider region. GSN examines the Houthi movement’s long history and current capabilities with missiles.

Amid reports of a possibly imminent reinstatement of a reworked Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement, it is likely that Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon capability may again slow down. While that will be welcomed by its regional foes, military planners’ attention is likely to switch to missiles and other categories of weaponry. GSN assesses the balance of forces and how Iran, Saudi Arabia, other GCC states and Israel are likely to further arm themselves with missile technology.

Following the failed January attacks on Abu Dhabi launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Ministry of Defence has released videos showing its forces counterattacking the launch sites allegedly used by the Houthis. This response highlights the fact that the UAE has greater intelligence capabilities than, for example, neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which has suffered many more strikes from Yemen over the years

A series of missile and drone attacks on the UAE killed two people but unnerved many more local residents in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as well as international allies. The strikes carried a clear political message, coming as the South Korean and Israeli presidents were visiting Mohammed Bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi. The UAE has been quick to react by bombing Houthi missile launch sites in Yemen, but it is clear that Abu Dhabi’s efforts to distance itself from the conflict over the past three years have not succeeded.

A Houthi drone attack on Abu Dhabi as GSN went to press exposed the UAE’s vulnerabilities and offered a further incentive for GCC countries to expand their domestic defence industries and their range of overseas suppliers. Billions of dollars are being spent in a region that is confronted by a range of risks, from a Yemen conflict that has become a major humanitarian disaster to Iran, with its projection of force in the ‘near abroad’ and nuclear ambitions.

Political rapprochement between GCC rivals, along with rich pickings from high oil prices and a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout meant the past year has been a relatively benign one for those outside the region’s conflict zones, according to GSN’s annual survey of developments across the region. In this special issue, we present refreshed Risk Management Reports for each of the nine countries in the region (as well as the Kurdistan region and individual UAE emirates) and some big picture analysis to complement GSN’s usual detailed focus on the minutiae of political and business life.

Yemen remains on GSN's worst grades for both political and financial risk in this latest Risk Management Report. The United Nations is continuing peace efforts, led by special envoy Hans Grundberg, but any lasting peace remains elusive, with the potential for wider regional conflict to flare up again and factions entrenched in their fiefs. In January, the UAE condemned the seizure by Houthi forces of  a UAE-flagged ship in the Red Sea while it was en route from Socotra to the Saudi port of Jizan as an act of piracy. The Paris Club group of international creditors has extended the debt service suspension initiative (DSSI) programme, covering debt due up to end 2021.