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The UAE has yet to take any firm action following the Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi International Airport and an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) fuel depot at nearby Mussafah on 17 January, which reportedly killed three people. However, the government has said it “reserves the right to respond to these terrorist attacks and criminal escalation”.

Houthi forces have made sizeable territorial gains in recent fighting, but while much of the international focus has been on action around Marib City, another important element has been securing control of vital smuggling routes from the Gulf of Aden coast up to Sanaa. While in private many Saudis see the conflict on their southern flank continuing indefinitely – with potentially catastrophic consequences as the missile and drone war continues – recent developments may reflect manoeuvres by the Houthis and other belligerents before any UN-led negotiations are held.

The Saudi Development and Reconstruction Programme for Yemen (SDRPY) handed over four new schools on Socotra at a well-attended opening ceremony on 28 November, providing places for 5,170 boys and girls. Given Socotra’s population is approximately 50,000, the schools will be able to provide much of the island’s education needs.

The Houthis are currently focused on two priorities: the lifting of restrictions on Sanaa international airport and Hodeida seaport; and securing the flow of weapons to retain a credible strike capability into Saudi Arabia.

Houthi forces broke in to the site of the shuttered United States embassy in Sanaa in November and detained at least 25 people that had been working there in a caretaker capacity or who worked for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

There have been further movements of coalition forces following Saudi troop redeployments and withdrawals in Mahra, Shebwa and Aden in October. Saudi and UAE forces have withdrawn from the port area of Hodeidah, in effect ceding the city to the Houthis. A coalition spokesman described this as part of tactical redeployments, with the troops needed elsewhere.

A new phase in the Yemen conflict is taking shape, as Houthis close in on Marib City and Saudi forces are redeployed. Military operations in Marib province by President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and its allies in the Saudi-led coalition have shifted from a focus on preventing the fall of Marib City to how to react once Houthi forces take control – an echo of the situation in June 2018 before the Stockholm Agreement.

There has been escalation in Shabwah province and terrorist incidents in the interim capital of Aden. Events on the ground are developing quickly and often to the surprise of warring parties. Against that backdrop, the recently-appointed UN special envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg has launched a fresh shuttle diplomacy effort.

The UN Human Rights Council voted to end the Group of Eminent Experts (GEE) on Yemen’s mandate on 7 October. The GEE was set up in 2017 to investigate war crimes by all sides in the conflict; it has repeatedly found that air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition and actions by the Houthis may amount to war crimes.

Tensions between leadership rivals in Mahra and Socotra are rising, as fighting between Houthi forces and those of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government intensifies in Marib and threatens to spill over into the few regions that have not seen major fighting, specifically Hadhramaut and Mahra.

GSN Risk Grade – Yemen F6 Overview Politics: Conflict has for years exacerbated multiple humanitarian crises, pushing Yemen towards the verge of collapse and ‘failed state’ status (GSN’s political risk category F).

Conflict and popular protest in central Yemen call into question the Riyadh Agreement’s future, as the uneasy alliance between the Saudi-backed, internationally-recognised Hadi government and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council comes under new pressure with potentially wide-ranging consequences.

Influential Houthi leader Hassan Ali Al-Emad was arrested after crossing into Yemen via Oman’s Al-Mazyunah border checkpoint on 25 August, under a false identity; he had attempted to disguise that he had been travelling from Iran via Jordan. Al-Emad was arrested by Yemeni border security forces controlled by the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, according to Al-Mahrah police Colonel Ahmed Arfeet. Al-Emad’s whereabouts are unknown.

In contrast to the UAE’s public withdrawal from Yemen – where Emirati military forces formally pulled out last October, although it has retained a less widely publicised presence, notably on the islands of Socotra and Mayyun – Oman has steadily increased its influence in the worn-torn state.

New United Nations’ special envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg took up his role on 5 September and launched into a series of internal meetings before giving his first briefing to the UN Security Council five days later. Observers noted that Grundberg didn’t offer a new agenda in his Security Council briefing, adopting similar language to his predecessor Martin Griffiths. He did though promise to assess past efforts to “identify what has worked and what hasn’t.”