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Efforts to end the Yemen conflict continue amid a wave of shuttle diplomacy, but a ceasefire will not be a panacea for Riyadh’s long-term vulnerability on its southern border.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
Issue 1124 - 22 April 2021

UK blames Covid for cut to Yemen aid

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 The UK government has defended a near 60% reduction in aid to Yemen for FY2021/22, compared to the year before, blaming Covid-19 for the need to redirect spending to domestic priorities. “Our desire to help the people of Yemen persists, that’s why we remain one of the largest donors,” Middle East and North Africa minister James Cleverly told the House of Commons International Development Committee (IDC) on 20 April.

Yemen
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 Saudi Arabia’s unilateral announcement of a peace initiative on 22 March has led to a fresh wave of diplomatic manoeuverings, as warring parties and their backers seek to position themselves ahead of any talks. Riyadh’s proposal was introduced by foreign minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, without any input from Riyadh’s ally, the government of President Abd- Rabbu Mansour Hadi, or the Office of the UN special envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government has claimed success in its efforts to change a highly critical report by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Panel of Experts. Published in January, it pointed to large-scale corruption and money laundering, including at Central Bank of Yemen and also by the powerful local Hail Saeed Anam (HSA) Group.

Yemen
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A flurry of announcements by GCC leaders about energy transitions and industrial strategies suggest major shifts are under way, if not always at the pace that global consultancies, uncritical media and ruling family boosters claim. As they emerge from the coronavirus pandemic and seek an exit from the Yemen war, core royal leaderships are applying a distinctly top-down approach to centrally plan their way towards a new global role.

Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Yemen | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
Issue 1122 - 18 March 2021

Libyans in the Gulf

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Several important players in the Libyan conflict have links to Gulf governments and some are based in Dubai.

United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Yemen
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Houthi military spokesman Brigadier Yahya Al-Sari claimed its forces launched 14 drones and eight ballistic missiles at oil-related targets in Eastern Province and on targets in Jeddah, Jizan and Abha on 7 March, describing it as the sixth iteration of Operation Balanced Deterrence. Saudi Arabia acknowledged it had intercepted a drone attacking the Ras Tanura oil storage and shipment facility and a ballistic missile targeted on Saudi Aramco’s residential compound in Dhahran; no damage or injuries were reported in either case.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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Governments in the Gulf and across the wider region have maintained their defence spending despite the pressures brought on by low oil revenues and the year-long Covid-19 crisis. This may not be sustainable in the medium-term, but the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) expects defence spending this year to hold up relatively well, in part because defence spending has historically been a priority area.

Iran | Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Yemen | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
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Risk Management Report – GSN Risk Grade – F6 Overview Politics: Conflict has for years exacerbated multiple humanitarian crises, pushing Yemen towards the verge of collapse and ‘failed state’ status (GSN’s political risk category F). After President Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power after 33 years in February 2012 promises of democracy and stability were never delivered, as President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi inherited a mess of competing and often violent factions, which he failed to harness. Southern secessionists have continued to build momentum, while war has afforded opportunities to jihadist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Islamic State (IS or Daesh).

Yemen
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Saudi Arabia is keen to end the costly war on its southern border, but has yet to find a way out while also ensuring its security and preserving Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s reputation. The Biden administration could contribute to the conflict’s resolution, provided it can reach a new understanding with Iran. In the meantime, many are profiting from the conflict, with large-scale smuggling from Oman and the UAE bringing arms and much more into the conflict zone.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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The Final Report of the Panel of Experts on Yemen presented to the United Nations Security Council, published on 25 January, offered extensive detail on smuggling routes into Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, highlighting the difficulties of enforcing an effective sanctions regime while also allowing trade flows in essential goods to continue. With the illicit weapons trade largely orchestrated by Iran, the report identified a pattern of corruption and ineffective customs and border controls, even in countries opposed to the Houthis such as the UAE.

Yemen | Oman
Issue 1120 - 18 February 2021

The magic of diplomatic gift-giving

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A review of gifts given to ministers at the UK’s foreign affairs ministry over the past decade shows that by far the most consistent and generous givers are Middle East governments and, in particular, the Gulf states. Between early 2010, when available records begin, to the most recent filing covering Q1 2020, a total of 36 countries offered presents to British foreign ministers, but the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries between them accounted for 55% of all the 130 gifts handed over. Saudi Arabia alone was responsible for one-fifth of all the presents.

Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Yemen | United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 1120 - 18 February 2021

Yemen: Confusion over Al-Qaida leader

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There is confusion over the fate of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Khalid Batarfi (also known as Abu Miqdad Al-Kindi). According to a United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report released on 3 February, Batfari was captured during a raid by Yemeni security forces on a safehouse in Al-Ghayda last October, during which AQAP’s second-in-command Saad Atef al-Awlaqi was killed. The report was initially confirmed by US Central Command (Centcom).

Yemen
Free

The latest report by the Panel of Experts on Yemen to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), released in late January, has highlighted how all parties to the conflict are guilty of economic profiteering which, alongside the fighting and human rights violations, is exacerbating the country’s dire situation. The UN Panel offered more details on the strength of the Houthi-Iran relationship, as well as corruption within the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, and violations of UNSC resolutions by the Southern Transition Council (STC).

Yemen
Issue 1118 - 21 January 2021

Who’s who in the Biden team

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With President Joe Biden’s administration formally taking office on 20 January, the US is set to transition to a more traditional foreign policy, based more on national rather than on the personal interest that marked the Donald Trump years. With limited co-operation from the outgoing administration during a uniquely chaotic transition period, Biden has been putting together a team which features a large number of people he worked with while vice president to Barack Obama.

Iran | Saudi Arabia | Bahrain | Yemen | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Israel