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Iran held a series of talks with its Gulf Co-operation Council neighbours in the second half of November, amid despondency about the prospects for reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal . The enhanced diplomacy could be a sign Tehran is seeking to firm up bilateral ties in the absence of any wider agreement.

GSN Risk Grade – D↓5 Iran has said it will not cooperate with a fact-finding mission set up by the United Nations Human Rights Council into protests that have spread across the country since mid-September, following the death in custody of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.

Iran appears to have resumed its campaign of striking tankers in the Gulf of Oman, after the Bahrain-based US Naval Forces Central Command (Navcent) reported that the Pacific Zircon oil products tanker had been struck by an Iranian-made explosive drone off Fujairah, en route to Argentina.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force revived its drone, artillery and missile attacks on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) on 14 November, around five weeks after a previous wave of attacks had ended. IRGC officials said they were targeting the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) and Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan (Komalah), which they view as terrorist organisations.

Iran has announced a series of advances for its home-grown missile arsenal, as western powers raise concern Tehran may be willing to provide missiles for Russia to use in the Ukraine war.

After Iranian drones were reported to have attacked apartment buildings and other civilian targets in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Tehran and Moscow denied the Islamic Republic had supplied any such equipment. However, there is clear evidence that points in the other direction.

Russia has appointed a new ambassador to Iran, replacing Levan Dzhagaryan who has repeatedly attracted controversy in recent years, in a move which could help to smooth bilateral relations at a critical juncture given Moscow’s demand for Iranian drones in Ukraine.

That the legendary late head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp’s Quds Force, Qassim Soleimani, has not been forgotten following his January 2020 assassination by the United States was underlined by a 2 November tweet on Iranian Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Twitter account.

Protestors have refused to stand down in the face of sometimes overwhelming state force in the seven weeks since Mahsa Amini died in custody. The movement’s support base has spread across the country and into parts of society not usually associated with political demonstrations, putting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei under unprecedented pressure. His regime is not yet facing the end, but the challenge to the clerical/military leadership will not fade easily or quickly.

Iran has voiced concerns that recent fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which flared up again in September, will impact its direct trucking routes through Armenia via the Lachin corridor to Georgia and Russia. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: "The Islamic Republic will not tolerate policies or plans that lead to the closing of the Iran-Armenia border."

While BBC Persian is causing problems for the authorities in Tehran, the UK broadcaster continues to suffer death by a thousand cuts amid austerity at home.

Iranian drones are now being seen regularly over the Ukrainian battlefield, following previous reports of a supply deal between Tehran and Moscow.

Protests have been continuing across Iran, following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody in Tehran in September. More than 150 people are thought to have been killed by security forces in what has, to date, been a failed attempt to restore control. While it is not yet an existential crisis for the state, the protests could build up further momentum.

The United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) has sanctioned four companies – Safiran Airport Services, Paravar Pars Company, Design and Manufacturing of Aircraft Engines (Dama) and Baharestan Kish Company – for their alleged involvement in manufacturing and supplying drones for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in custody has sparked another wave of popular protests across Iran. The incidents have shaken the authorities to the extent that a senior aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei paid a two-hour visit to Amini’s family home.