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POLITICS: Established in 1932, the kingdom is the giant of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in terms of population, territory, oil wealth and its claim to religious authority. Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy, whose rulers to date have all been sons of King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud). On 23 January, on the death of his 90-year-old brother Abdullah, King Salman Bin Abdelaziz became the sixth son of Ibn Saud to assume the throne. Salman is viewed as slightly more conservative than Abdullah, whose reign saw some reform of education and the judiciary, and the appointment of women to the Shura Council. There are also concerns about his fitness to rule; at 79, Salman has had at least one stroke and is thought to suffer from age-related mental health issues.

Saudi Arabia
Free

It has been a decade since the last war in Iraq, and more than two years since the formal withdrawal of US troops in 2011. Violence continues to disrupt daily life and has worsened over the past year: the United Nations mission in Iraq (UNAMI) says there were 7,818 civilians killed in 2013, the highest civilian death toll since 2008. Al-Qaeda in Iraq and its affiliates regularly claim bombings targeting Shiites and government and security forces,and have gained strength from the crisis in neighbouring Syria.

Iraq
Issue 1019 - 15 July 2016

Risk Management Report - Yemen

Free

Politics: Confronted by multiple humanitarian and security crises, Yemen is on the verge of collapse and ‘failed state’ status (GSN’s political risk category F). The transition period after president Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power (after 33 years) in February 2012 never delivered on promises of democracy and stability. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi inherited a mess of competing and often violent factions, which he failed to harness: southern secessionists continue to resist Sanaa’s rule, jihadist groups are embedded around the country, old guard remnants refuse to relinquish power and the Houthi movement (northern Zaidis allied with a resurgent Saleh) captured Sanaa in September 2014.

Yemen
Free

Disagreements between the autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI) and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad have been a source of major tensions. The 2005 constitution said the KRI had an identity distinct from Iraq, and was a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations; the 2010 Erbil agreement outlined how power would be shared. Amid acrimonious relations, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has protested the lack of implementation of these agreements, with oil central to the dispute; Baghdad was furious that Erbil signed production-sharing agreements with international oil companies (IOCs) without its say-so, and the KRG’s efforts to export oil independently rather than via the central State Marketing Organisation (Somo).

Iraq
Issue 1003 - 29 October 2015

Risk Management Report: Qatar

Free

The Al-Thani family has ruled Qatar since the mid-19th century, its power entrenched at the end of the Ottoman Empire with British recognition of its right to govern. Independence was declared in 1971. In recent decades, the tiny state has gained hugely in power, confidence and wealth; the population has boomed, from around 111,000 in 1970 to 2.2m today (around 85% expatriate). Instrumental in Qatar’s rapid development were former emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa and his prime minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim (HBJ). During their time in office, Qatar became known for its energetic foreign policy, as well as the extreme wealth which has seen its GDP per capita – expected by the International Monetary Fund to be around $93,535 in 2015 – become the highest in the world.

Qatar
Issue 1001 - 02 October 2015

Risk Management Report: Iraq

Free

Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932, and became a republic in 1958. The 1980s saw the long war with Iran, the 1990s the Gulf war and ensuing sanctions, and the 2000s the US-led occupation which removed the Baathists and Saddam Hussein. Twelve years after the US-led war, the country has yet to emerge from conflict. GSN’s political risk graderecently moved from D to E, reflecting the worsening violence, as Sunni extremists from Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) dramatically extended their territorial control. The United Nations mission in Iraq said that at least 12,282 civilians were killed in 2014, and 23,126 injured. IS was able to harness the huge frustrations of Iraq’s Sunnis, who felt marginalised during the years of Nouri Al-Maliki’s autocratic premiership; the ensuing conflict has dragged the US and allies back to Iraq as they wage an air campaign against the jihadists.

Iraq
Free

Investor interest in Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil exploration sector was strong before ExxonMobil signed up to six Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) exploration blocks in mid-November. The deal shocked the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad but delighted the regional Ministry of Natural Resources and the more than 40 international companies that preceded the super major into the territory.

Iraq
Free

Qatar has been increasingly isolated in the Gulf Co-operation Council because of its perceived support for the Muslim Brotherhood. On 5 March, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain announced they were withdrawing their ambassadors from Doha in response to Qatar’s refusal to abide by the terms of a GCC security agreement; while Qatar has played down the spat, and suggested it is over, the diplomats have yet to return. Bahrain’s state news agency affirmed on 25 May that the GCC was still working on overcoming its differences, and that there was no plan for the Bahraini ambassador to be reinstated in Doha.

Qatar
Issue 1015 - 20 May 2016

Risk Management Report: Iraq

Free

Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932; it became a republic in 1958. Saddam Hussein’s presidency was marked by conflict, including the 1980-88 war with Iran, the 1991 Gulf war and the US-led occupation in 2003, which removed the Baathist regime. Thirteen years after Saddam’s demise, Iraq has yet to emerge from conflict. GSN’s political risk grade was moved from D to E, reflecting continuing levels of violence. Sunni extremists from Islamic State (IS or Daesh), an alliance of jihadists and former Baathists, dramatically extended its territorial control in 2014, harnessing the huge frustrations of Sunnis, who felt marginalised during Nouri Al-Maliki’s autocratic premiership. The ensuing conflict has dragged the US and allies back to Iraq in a campaign against IS. According to the United Nations mission in Iraq, at least 7,515 civilians were killed in 2015, and 14,855 injured.

Iraq
Free

In November, Mohammed Bin Nayef was the first of the next generation to be appointed to a top post when he was named interior minister, but on 1 February, all eyes were back on the second generation as the king appointed his half brother Miqrin second deputy prime minister – a post traditionally viewed as equivalent to third in line to the throne

Saudi Arabia
Free

The Kurdish region is a controversial issue in Iraqi politics. The region has an identity very distinct from that of Iraq, and since 1991 has been de facto autonomous. The 2005 constitution stipulated that Iraqi Kurdistan was a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations, and the 2010 Erbil agreement with Baghdad outlined how power would be shared.

Iraq
Subscriber

Politics: Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Bin Taimur Al-Said was named ruler in January 2020, succeeding the late Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said as the 15th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty (founded in 1750). Qaboos was a monumental figure who, having deposed his father in 1970, had led Oman since 1970. The succession process was quick and smooth, orchestrated via the Royal Family Council. Haitham has moved cautiously in the opening period of his rule, broadly following his predecessor’s domestic and regional policies.

Oman
Free

Foreign and local construction firms are preparing for a decade of intense infrastructure development in preparation for the World Cup. There has already been considerable work on Doha’s roads and amenities. The $14bn New Doha International Airport, which will eventually handle 24m passengers annually, should see its first phases open next year.

Qatar
Issue 1024 - 21 October 2016

Risk Management Report: Qatar

Free

Politics: Al-Thanis have ruled since the mid-19th century, reinforced by British recognition of the family’s right to govern; independence was declared in 1971. In recent decades, the peninsula has gained hugely in power, confidence and wealth, thanks to ‘Father Emir’ Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani’s drive to develop gas reserves. The population has boomed, from around 111,000 in 1970 to 2.2m-plus today (85%-90% expatriate), almost exclusively concentrated in Doha. Between 1995 and 2013, Sheikh Hamad and prime minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim remodelled Qatar as an ultra-modern city state, with a multi-facted foreign policy, funded by extreme wealth. Relations with Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) members deteriorated as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain took umbrage at Doha’s support for Islamists, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. When Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad took over in June 2013, his age alone broke the region’s gerontocratic mould, which several senior GCC heads hardly appreciated (GSN 950/1). He has worked to return to the GCC fold, while further modernising Qatari governance. Tamim’s January 2016 cabinet reorganisation was aimed at injecting vigour into a slimmed down government. Tamim is reputed for a canny understanding of his people and Qatar’s potential, but in many respects he remains an enigma; GSN has described his government as “less activist, still active”.

Qatar
Issue 1009 - 04 February 2016

Risk Management Report - Qatar

Free

The Al-Thani family has ruled Qatar since the mid-19th century, its power entrenched at the end of the Ottoman Empire with British recognition of its right to govern. Independence was declared in 1971. In recent decades, the tiny state has gained hugely in power, confidence and wealth; the population has boomed, from around 111,000 in 1970 to 2.4m today (around 85% expatriate). Instrumental in Qatar’s rapid development were former emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa and his prime minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim (HBJ).

Qatar