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Issue 984 - 08 January 2015

Risk Management Report: Kuwait

Free

POLITICS: Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say and political parties are banned. But the 50-member assembly has proven vibrant, and Kuwaiti politics the most participatory in the Gulf. The downside of this experiment in partial democracy has been the constant friction between the elected parliament and the appointed government, which has often resulted in paralysis of the state.

Kuwait
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Tensions between the autonomous Kurdish region and Baghdad remain one of the most pressing issues for Iraq. The 2005 constitution stipulated that Iraqi Kurdistan, which has an identity very distinct from Iraq, is a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the UN, and the 2010 Erbil agreement with Baghdad outlined how power would be shared. But the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has protested at its lack of implementation, and relations with Baghdad are highly acrimonious. Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has threatened to hold a referendum on independence, saying federal Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has breached the constitution by assuming too many powers.

Iraq
Issue 1017 - 17 June 2016

Risk Management Report - Saudi Arabia

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Politics: Established by King Abdelaziz (Ibn Saud) in 1932, the kingdom is the giant of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in terms of population, territory, oil wealth and its claim to religious authority. An absolute monarchy, Saudi Arabia is ruled by King Salman Bin Abdelaziz, Ibn Saud’s sixth son to assume the throne. Salman is viewed as slightly more conservative than the late King Abdullah, whose reign saw some reform of education and the judiciary, and the appointment of women to the Shura Council; at 80, Salman has had at least one stroke and is thought to suffer from age-related mental health issues. Balancing this, he has appointed an experienced and competant crown prince, Mohammed Bin Nayef Bin Abdelaziz (MBN); the prominance of 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has attracted most attention for his robust promotion of Saudi interests – notably driving the conflict in Yemen,where it is fighting Houthi rebels it claims are backed by Iran and are allied to ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh – and advocacy of potentially radical economic reform.

Saudi Arabia
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Yemen is in a very fragile state. After 33 years of rule, president Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power in February 2012, and the nation entered a transitional period, intended to be two years long and to steer Yemen towards democracy and stability. Saleh’s successor, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has inherited a nation beset by violence and competing factions. A Houthi insurgency in the north, secessionism in the south, a powerful jihadist movement and remnants of the old guard continue to threaten the political process. Hadi has made moves to restructure the military and neutralise potential enemies, but factional fighting in Sanaa continues.

Yemen
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Dubai Group, a subsidiary of Dubai Holding, has revealed $4bn of debt in addition to the $6bn already declared. The group is now looking to restructure all $10bn, of which the original $6bn is owed to banks and $4bn made up of inter-company loans.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 984 - 08 January 2015

Risk Management Report: GCC

Free

GCC: The Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) was set up on 25 May 1981 in Abu Dhabi, when the leaders of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed to establish a council whose aims were to “achieve unity”, formulate “similar regulations” in fields including economics, customs, commerce, communications, education and culture, and to stimulate scientific and technological progress. In part founded as a reaction to the Islamic revolution in Iran and the Iran-Iraq war, divisions and power imbalances within the council have led to the GCC being largely unproductive over the first three-and-a-half decades of its existence, despite high hopes and rhetoric. The Riyadh-based secretariat comprises a supreme council, a ministerial council and a secretariat-general. Each state has one vote on the supreme council, and “substantive matters” require unanimous approval. Its presidency is rotatory, based on alphabetical order.

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Tensions between the autonomous Kurdish region and Baghdad remain one of the most pressing issues for Iraq. The 2005 constitution stipulated that Iraqi Kurdistan, which has an identity very distinct from Iraq, is a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations, and the 2010 Erbil agreement with Baghdad outlined how power would be shared. But the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has protested at its lack of implementation, and relations with Baghdad are highly acrimonious. Kurdish President Massoud Barzani has threatened to hold a referendum on independence, saying federal Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has breached the constitution by assuming too many powers. “The same individual holds the powers of prime minister, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, defence minister, chief of intelligence and interior minister. The central bank may soon be under his purview as well,” he said in 2012.

Iraq
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On 16 June, Crown Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz died in Switzerland.While it was known he was ill, the timing of his death was a surprise, and left King Abdullah picking a successor for the second time since October, when Nayef took over from Sultan Bin Abdelaziz, who died aged 80.

Saudi Arabia
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Sultan Qaboos made an unusually forceful speech at the opening of the fifth session of the Council of Oman on 31 October, his first public address since the protests. He promised to combat unemployment and called on audit authorities to use the “full force of the law” against those tempted by corruption.

Oman
Issue 973 - 05 July 2014

Risk management report: Yemen

Free

Yemen is in a very fragile state. After 33 years of rule, president Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power in February 2012, and the nation entered a transitional period, intended to be two years long and to steer Yemen towards democracy and stability. It is running considerably behind schedule. Saleh’s successor, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has inherited a nation beset by violence and competing factions.

Yemen
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On 11 March, Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa was appointed ‘first deputy premier for the development and performance of the executive authority’s bodies’, a move widely perceived as conciliatory towards the opposition. On 10 February, the government and opposition groups began a National Consensus Dialogue. Violence flared again on the 14 February anniversary of the uprising (and has again since), but talks have not been derailed, a measure of the seriousness on all sides.

Bahrain
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Relations with Qatar have deteriorated sharply. Tensions have been building since 2011, due to conflicting views on the Muslim Brotherhood, which Abu Dhabi sees as a threat and Doha has been supporting. In February, the UAE summoned the Qatari ambassador to make a formal complaint about Doha-based Islamist cleric Yusuf Al-Qaradawi’s criticism of the UAE rulers. Then, on 5 March, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain all withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar, saying Qatar had refused to abide by the terms of an agreement signed by the Gulf Co-operation Council member states three months earlier – something Qatar denies.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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On 25 June, Sheikh Hamad abdicated in favour of his son, heir apparent Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani. The move was expertly stagemanaged: rumours of a handover had been circulating for months, and it was portrayed as a transfer to a dynamic next generation. In his final address as leader, 61-year-old Hamad spoke of the “original and creative initiatives” of Qatar’s youth, and said it was time to “usher in a new era”.

Qatar
Issue 937 - 06 December 2012

Dubai announces yet another mega-project

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Charismatic ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) is the architect of today’s Dubai. Named federal vice president and prime minister in 2006, he helped increase the role of Dubai in federal affairs, which had been overwhelmingly dominated by Abu Dhabi’s Al-Nahyan.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 1000 - 18 September 2015

Finance: Sovereign Wealth Funds

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The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states have more than a dozen sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) between them, managing assets worth an estimated $2.77trn. As of 12 August 2015, this represented a staggering 38% of the total $7.28trn assets managed by SWFs around the world, according to the calculations of the Las Vegas-based Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute (SWFI).