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Four Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) nationals were sentenced to life in jail, and one to ten years, by the Federal Supreme Court, after being found guilty of disseminating information “with an intent to ridicule and damage the reputation and prestige of the state symbols”, UAE state news agency Wam said on 18 May. Wam said the five had been accused of spreading data, rumours and pictures on Twitter and other websites; as well as prison sentences, they were given a Dh1m ($0.27m) fine.

Politics: Disagreements between the autonomous Kurdish region and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad have been a source of major tensions in recent years. The 2005 constitution stipulated that Iraqi Kurdistan had an identity distinct from Iraq, and was a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations; the 2010 Erbil agreement with Baghdad outlined how power would be shared. But the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has protested their lack of implementation, and relations with Baghdad have been acrimonious. Oil has been at the centre of the dispute, with Baghdad furious that Erbil signed production-sharing agreements with international oil companies (IOCs) without its say-so, and Kurdistan wanting to export oil independently rather than via the central state marketing organisation.

Yemen is in a very fragile state. After 33 years of rule, president Ali Abdullah Saleh relinquished power in February 2012, and Yemen entered a transitional period, intended to be two years long and to steer the country towards democracy and stability. Saleh’s successor, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has inherited a nation beset by violence and competing factions. A smouldering insurgency in the north, secessionism in the south, a powerful jihadist movement and remnants of the old guard continue to threaten the political process. Hadi has made moves to restructure the military and neutralise potential enemies, but factional fighting in Sanaa continues apace.

The Kurdistan region of Iraq has great successes within its grasp, but remains threatened by its still unstable relationship with the rest of the country and neighbours in the region. The Iraqi parliament will soon start discussion on a series of oil sector laws which will potentially enshrine the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)’s right to issue contracts and hold licensing rounds.

POLITICS: Kuwait has been governed by the Al-Sabah family since the 18th century. It gained independence from Britain in 1961; a new constitution written that year confirmed the hereditary monarchy, but gave significant powers to an independent judiciary and an elected assembly. The emir – currently Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah – retains final say. Parties are banned, but associations and factions are active, creating opposition blocs in the 50-member Majlis Al-Umma (National Assembly) and the Gulf ’s most participatory politics. The downside of this experiment in partial democracy has been constant friction between the elected parliament and appointed government, which has often resulted in paralysis of the state.

The authorities have cracked down on Shia protests in Eastern Province. Orders from on high – including a Ministry of Interior statement on 5 March saying that demonstrations, marches and sit- ins contradict Sharia law and a similar message from the Majlis Al-Shura on 7 March – appear to have prevented a possible ‘day of rage’ scheduled for 10 March.

The past year has been a political rollercoaster for Kuwait, and there has been little progress in dealing with the system’s underlying problems. The opposition won a parliamentary majority in February but, in June, the emir dissolved parliament on a technicality. Fresh elections were held on 1 December, but were boycotted by the opposition, angry that the emir decreed a change to the electoral law, cutting the number of votes to one per person, a move the opposition says favours pro-government candidates.

Parliament has abolished 12 government ministries, reducing the administration to 34 ministries. Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki remains acting defence and interior minister, with the Al-Iraqiya bloc, led by Iyad Allawi, rejecting his recommendation that culture minister Saadoun Al- Duleimy becomes acting defence minister, instead proposing four candidates of its own.

The government of President Bashar Al-Assad has come under increased pressure as the Arab Spring has brought thousands of people demanding political reform onto the streets. But the regime continues to use heavy-handed tactics to cling on to power, resulting in violent clashes between protesters and the army.

Iran was declared an Islamic Republic in 1979, following the overthrow of the shah. Supreme leader (rahbar) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits at the top of the political system, his power (in theory) checked by an elected president and parliament; the conflict between theocracy and democracy dictates much of the internal dynamic. The election of President Hassan Rouhani in June 2013 – who is more moderate than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – has proved a transitional moment in the republic’s external relations. The upward trend arrow on Iran’s political risk grade reflects the probable impact of the July 2015 nuclear deal, with a gradual reversal of international sanctions expected to start being felt in 2016.

Shiite Houthi fighters took control of Sanaa on 21 September, having overrun an army brigade affiliated to the Islamist party Al- Islah. After they refused to leave, Hadi signed an agreement making them part of the government, a deal which the GCC states view with trepidation, seeing it as a way for Iran to increase its control in Yemen. The Houthis’ successes have brought them into direct confrontation with Al-Qaeda-linked groups, which have launched a number of attacks, including a suicide bombing at a hospital in Majzar, east of Sanaa, that killed at least 15 people on 28 September, and a suicide bombing at a rally in Sanaa that killed at least 47 people on 9 October. In a statement recently posted online, AQAP called on militants to strike every Houthi checkpoint, and bomb every Houthi headquarters. “Lie in wait for them, cause harm to them on the roads, tighten the ambushes for them, and do not let them feel safe,” it said.

Talks between Iran and the P5+1 – that is China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, led by European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton – have continued since a historic interim nuclear agreement was signed in a Geneva hotel on 24 November. That deal, due to last six months, outlined around $7bn worth of sanctions relief for Iran, in return for curbs on nuclear activities. A fresh round of talks took place in Vienna on 8-9 April, after which the participants said there was agreement on “50-60%” of issues, and that the next round of talks, scheduled for 13 May in Vienna, would move into another phase.

Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, the 14th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, founded in 1750. Oman’s sultan, who deposed his father in a bloodless coup, relies on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite to rule, rather than his relatively small family. Qaboos was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent; his successor is expected to emerge from a small pool of family members. Power remains strongly centralised, but there has been some modernisation. The first elections, for the Majlis Al-Shura (consultative council), were held in 1991; elections for municipal councils took place in late 2012. There has been mounting public pressure for reform, and the government has shown little tolerance of dissent: since 2012, dozens of people have stood trial for taking part in anti-government protests or insulting the sultan. Oman is known for its pragmatism in foreign policy, and has often acted as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington.

Iraqi Kurdistan has sold its first cargo of crude oil on the international market, according to industry sources. In defiance of Baghdad, which views such trade as illegal, crude pumped from Genel Energy’sTaqTaq field was trucked into Turkey, and sold via tender for loading in April, according to Reuters.