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Regional and international organisations UAE on the security council: The UAE was elected to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on 11 June and will serve for two years from 1 January 2022. It has only once before held a UNSC seat, in 1986-87. The UAE launched its campaign in September.

Extensive contacts between Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen have prompted renewed speculation about the role Muscat may be playing in persuading the Houthis to sign a peace deal with Riyadh, bringing an end to their destructive conflict.

The UAE has told Italy it must withdraw its aircraft and personnel from Al-Minhad Air Base by 2 July. The move is in apparent retaliation for Italy’s decision in January to block the sale of missiles and aircraft bombs to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE may also be unhappy that Italian firm Drass is reported to be selling submarines to local rival Qatar.

BP is planning to hive off its operations at the 1.5m b/d Rumaila oil field into a new stand-alone company jointly owned by its partner China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), in a move which seems to mimics the UK major’s recently announced venture in Angola with Italy’s Eni.

The Baghdad government has signed a strategic agreement with Masdar, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company, to develop at least 2GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Iraq.

Simon Shercliff has been named as the UK’s new ambassador to Iran and will take over from Rob Macaire in August. Shercliff has previously served as ambassador to Yemen from 2017-18 and as national security director at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office from 2018-21. His arrival in Tehran will coincide with President-elect Ibrahim Raeisi taking office, following his election victory in June.

Princess Latif Bint Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum claimed she was free to travel outside the UAE, in a declaration issued via her lawyers Taylor Wessing. It issued the statement following another photo was published on Instagram on 21 June by Sioned Taylor on her @shinnybryn account. This time the shot apparently showed Latifa at Madrid airport, with the caption “Great European holiday with Latifa. We’re having fun exploring!” This followed several photos being posted in May.

Crown princes Mohammed Bin Salman and Mohammed Bin Zayed were once close partners but appear now to be competing as much as co-operating. In contrast, Qatar and Oman have been moving closer to a Saudi leadership keen to develop a better international reputation. This feeds into Muscat’s approach to Yemen, where Sultan Haitham has sought to guard Omani security via direct talks with the Houthis.

Both Saudi Arabia and Oman seemed keen to play up the significance of Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said’s visit to Neom, although for now the bilateral relationship is still mostly defined by the future potential gains that could accrue to both sides. Sultan Haitham arrived at Neom Bay Airport on 11 July on his first trip abroad since taking office in January 2020.

Following the recent disagreement between the UAE and Italy, Rome has reportedly loosened some of the restrictions it had imposed on arms sales to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Officials are adamant the sale and leasing of assets, and a steady flow of huge bond issues, are not being done to maintain Aramco’s $75bn annual dividend – and major new investments are planned that will need funding – but the oil giant is clearly under pressure to maintain its position as the state’s cash-cow.

GSN Risk Grade – D↓4 Overview Politics: Disagreements between the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad have been a source of major tensions. The 2005 constitution gave the KRI an identity distinct from Iraq, as a federal entity recognised by Iraq and the United Nations; the 2010 Erbil agreement outlined how power would be shared. 

 Two of the UAE’s largest banks, Emirates NBD and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, have until 30 July to reach a settlement with Qatar, in one of the largest claims to have been brought at the High Court of England and Wales – with damages of “over £100m” ($140m) sought.

There were three surprises from the 18 July Opec+ meeting: one, that it happened so soon after the most recent ministerial meetings; two, that it extended the 23 countries’ co-operation agreement to December 2022; and three, that it solved a quota dispute between the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which had fed into Abu Dhabi’s deteriorating relationship with Riyadh.

Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting (Sajco) in mid-2020 received a SR700m contract from the Qiddiya Investment Company to build roads and bridges for the entertainment city’s development. This followed another roadworks contract, in 2019.