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Bahrain’s latest GSN Risk Management Report remains unchanged at C3 with the political outlook showing positive momentum while the economic and financial outlook is negative. GCC allies led by Saudi Arabia are pressing harder for economic reforms. The oil price hike may generate some extra funds and but difficult deficit reduction measures are needed. King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa appears to be concentrating more power in the hands of Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, but in an opaque public sphere there is also speculation about his standing compared to that of his brother Sheikh Nasser. Majority Shia community concerns over social disadvantage and human rights abuses remain a big issue that gains only a limited hearing from the authorities and much of the media.

82-year-old Ruler Sheikh Sultan Bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi marked the 50th anniversary to accession to power in Sharjah  on 25 January.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nejada) and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (Nedsa) carried out a now annual joint naval exercise with the Russian and Chinese navies in late January.

Saudi Arabian National Guard (Sang) minister Prince Abdullah Bin Bandar inaugurated the $560m National Guard Air Base at Dirab, south of Riyadh, on 17 January.

The government is to send a delegation to Romania to follow up on the case of Kuwaiti businessman Mohammed Al-Baghli.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan travelled to the UAE on 14 February, on a two-day visit which further cemented the sense of warming ties between the two regional rivals. The trip – Erdogan’s first since 2013 – followed visits to Ankara by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) in November and national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan in August.

Iraq and Iran are to connect their rail systems via a 32km link between Shalamcheh in Iran and Basra in Iraq. The timeframe for the work is not clear, but Islamic Republic of Iran Railways and Iraqi Republic Railway are due to form a joint venture to develop the project in the near future, following an agreement signed by the two governments in late December.

Minister of state for the Middle East and North Africa James Cleverly moved over to become minister for Europe in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s 8 February ministerial reshuffle.

Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah returned from his private trip to Germany on 5 February. He had left Kuwait on 20 January, on what was presumed to have been a trip to receive further medical treatment.

Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said left on a three-day trip to Germany on 10 February.

Houthi attempts to fire missiles at the UAE in January underlined the Yemeni rebel movement’s ability to project drones and basic missiles across a wider region. GSN examines the Houthi movement’s long history and current capabilities with missiles.

Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) has announced that it has successfully closed a $15.5bn lease and leaseback deal for its gas pipeline network, announced in December.

Saudi Aramco has discovered five more conventional and unconventional gas fields, according to remarks by energy minister Prince Abdelaziz Bin Salman.

Iran's ambassador to the UK Mohsen Baharvand has been removed from his post, following a video that appeared online showing an event at the Iranian embassy.

GSN Risk Grade: D4↓ Recent developments- Presidential deal: The KRI’s two main parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – remain deadlocked over who should be chosen as the next federal president.