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An attempt by GCC secretary-general Nayef Al-Hajraf to convene a fresh round of dialogue in Riyadh for Yemen war belligerents appears to have failed, with the Houthis refusing to take part. However, there are signs of further Saudi-inspired political initiatives to break the stalemate on the ground, which could have significant consequences for President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the wider political process.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to roil global oil and gas markets – particularly in Europe where countries are chasing alternative supplies to reduce their heavy energy dependency on Russia.

Tempers are fraying over the early-October decision by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies in the Opec+ group to cut oil production. The most prominent members, Russia and Saudi Arabia, remain in a cosy alliance and western efforts to drive a wedge between Moscow and the Gulf countries have yet to show any returns. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seem unfazed by any possible reputational risks, while they continue to sweat the global economy for revenues.

The UAE is preparing for its 51st National Day on 2 December with the usual talk of unity and joint endeavour. However, one consequence of the wide-ranging social and economic reforms introduced in recent years is that the idea of Emirati national identity may now be more contentious than it has been for decades.

Kuwait has all but left behind its former status as a pre-eminent hub of regional diplomacy, as the leadership is widely perceived to have walked away from its role as mediator in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and its neighbours. Concerned by this apparent inaction on the regional stage, GSN has been asking: why has Kuwait apparently retired from playing such a significant diplomatic role?

Even while Iranian diplomatic efforts are focused on talks with global powers to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal whose revival would significantly improve the economic outlook – the domestic situation remains fragile.

The failure of Yemen’s warring parties to renew their truce in October is regarded by many observers as a sign of both the increasing strength of the Houthi rebel group and a failure of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to resolve its own internal differences.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has worked hard to remove any possibility of political opposition emerging from within Al-Saud ranks over the past five years. This campaign has involved several bouts of locking up senior family members, with the clear backing of his father King Salman, most notably in November 2017 but most recently in March when Princes Ahmed Bin Abdelaziz and Mohammed Bin Nayef were moved from house arrest to prison.

Isolated by its erstwhile ‘GCC-3’ allies, Qatar gave some very public thanks to those who had stuck by it following the boycott launched by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt in June 2017 when, in the first half of October, it invited senior officials and companies from the likes of Iran, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan to Doha to share a stage with Qatari government ministers.

A summit of regional leaders, held in Abu Dhabi on 18 January, appeared to be hastily arranged and did not include representatives from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. It has nevertheless prompted widespread speculation about what may have been discussed and the meeting’s wider meaning. Such interest reflects its host’s apparently ever increasing prominence in international affairs.

The UAE's early September announcement that it had set up a federal gambling regulator is a further sign of how the competition between regional economies is pushing them to diversify into areas that would previously have been regarded as too sensitive or even taboo.

Even before the new Gaza war shattered comfortable assumptions about regional security, the global economic climate had been hostile, as shown in analysis of the International Monetary Fund's new reports on the global outlook and regional economic performance.

Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah has repeatedly called for a new approach to overhaul Kuwait’s factionalised politics and boost economic reform – a position he restated in his inaugural address on 20 December. But changing a system that appears to encourage stasis rather than co-operation will not be easy for Kuwait’s new, 83 year-old ruler. 

Protestors have refused to stand down in the face of sometimes overwhelming state force in the seven weeks since Mahsa Amini died in custody. The movement’s support base has spread across the country and into parts of society not usually associated with political demonstrations, putting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei under unprecedented pressure. His regime is not yet facing the end, but the challenge to the clerical/military leadership will not fade easily or quickly.

Iranian officials have in recent days reiterated their determination to hold presidential elections on schedule on 18 June, although the voting may have to be extended to a second day given the expectation that the coronavirus pandemic will still have impacts well into next year. It is likely to be an unusual campaign, with a ban on public meetings.