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Among more than 200 prisoners pardoned by Oman’s Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said on the occasion of Renaissance Day on 23 July were 14 activists jailed for taking part in anti-government protests in 2011. The day before the anniversary of the sultan’s accession, it emerged that the amnesty would extend to the 14 so-called Sohar prisoners, who were serving terms of between 30 months and five years for their role in protests in the northern industrial port town. Charges against them included verbally insulting public servants, blocking traffic, causing public inconvenience and vandalising public property.

The region stretching from the Bosphorus to the Gulf must accommodate itself to a new strategic reality, as the United States – under new management and with a harrowing roster of domestic issues to resolve – disengages from Iraq, while focusing hard on Afghanistan and its neighbours.

Will Mohammad Khatami secure the backing of Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his presidential comeback bid this summer? Unlikely as this might have seemed even weeks ago, Iranian political observers, whose debates GSN has joined in the past week, are agreed that this may be the decisive question

The dispatch of a high-level Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) delegation to Tehran on 16 July was another sign of the swelling domestic and foreign unease at Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani’s almost indecent haste in pushing for an independence referendum in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The signs are that Kurds will vote for independence from Baghdad on 25 September, which will severely complicate relations with Shia-dominated Iraq and the wider region.

Washington’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) opens with a preamble, signed by Barack Obama – a president burnishing his legacy ahead of the November 2016 election in the face of security crises his administration is hard-pressed to counter. “Today, the United States is stronger and better positioned to seize the opportunities of a still new century and safeguard our interests against the risks of an insecure world,” the preamble says, citing “America’s growing economic strength [as] the foundation of our national security and a critical source of our influence abroad”.

Kuwait’s press has rightfully earned itself a reputation as one of the most vibrant and free in the Arab world. It is not uncommon to see Kuwaiti papers splash on political and economic scandals and controversies, or even report on infighting within the ruling Al-Sabah, something which would scarcely be imaginable in the other Gulf monarchies. But over the last few months, the press in Kuwait has grown increasingly silent; uncannily so. The silence does not reflect a period of political calm, however. Rather it shows a growing fear among journalists and politicians that reporting anything about brewing political issues might get them into trouble

The impending E222m ($261m) transfer of Brazilian footballer Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior has set the club he has played for since 2013, Barcelona (sponsored by Qatar), against his new employer Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), which is owned by Qatar. Barca and Spanish La Liga officials complain PSG has violated the ‘financial fair play’ rules of football’s European governing body UEFA. Other observers believe the world-record transfer – which is more than twice the size of the previous mega-deal – sends another signal: that Qatar is carrying on with business as usual in terms of projecting its soft power muscle to underline its status as a small state with world class (and World Cup) ambitions.

As federal President Jalal Talabani asks prime minister-designate Nouri Al-Maliki to form a cabinet, there will follow 30 days of delicate negotiations. Maliki must also find at least 163 votes by 11 December in order for his government to be ratified. Some progress has been made.

Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah is playing a canny game ahead of May’s general election. It is only ten months since Kuwait went to the polls – and two years since the previous election – a political cycle that illustrates the pattern of confrontation between parliamentarians and ministers which has repeatedly blocked legislation and approval of major projects.

Late October saw a flurry of activity in London aimed at boosting Gulf Co-Operation Council-UK ties. If the crowded programme had been the result of a co-ordinated plan by the UK’s (relatively) new coalition government it might be seen as a reaffirmation of UK-Gulf ties organised by a dynamic new administration.

Rare was the commentator who predicted that the overthrow of Tunisian leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in (was it only?) mid-January would be followed by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s demise and the probable overthrow of the even more entrenched Qadhafi regime in Libya.

Since Kuwait was the first Arab state to have a parliament in 1962, it is no stranger to voices of dissent and opposition within its governing system. It has a powerful and democratically elected National Assembly, with a strong sense of constitutional rights (GSN 891/1). This has earned the emirate a reputation for a vigorous political culture.

The latest Israeli-Palestinian flare-up is an all-too familiar expression of scarcely bottled-up frustrations in the West Bank and Gaza, which the aggressive departure from any two-state solution by Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and his allies has exacerbated (GSN 1,097/1). GSN’s analysis of social media shows that, in the era of the Abraham Accords (GSN 1,109/1), the crisis – which began in the Jerusalem suburb of Sheikh Jarrah and spread more widely before focusing on Gaza and then, on 18 May, triggering mass protests on the West Bank – has exposed new rifts in attitudes. The ‘Arab street’ hasn’t disappeared – it has gone online.

The decision by the Shura-ye Negahban (Guardian Council) to cull all but seven names from the list of 592 people who had registered to run in the presidential election on 18 June was, on the surface, unsurprising.

Differences between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and his Emirati counterpart, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) have been mounting ever since Riyadh led the way towards reconciliation with Qatar at the Al-Ula summit in January.