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ExxonMobil’s audacious six-block deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has plunged a dagger into the already uneasy peace between Arabs and Kurds, giving an immediate public relations boost to the headline-chasing KRG natural resources minister Ashti Hawrami and pouring further misery onto Baghdad’s embattled deputy prime minister for energy affairs Hussein Al-Shahristani.

Iraq
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Foreign journalists seem unable to mention the phrase ‘Qatari foreign policy’ without including the adjective ‘maverick’. But there is much more to the peninsula’s unusually prominent role in international relations than mere game-playing. Qatari international relations have long included backchannel diplomacy and high-profile conflict resolution, allowing Doha to become a key regional actor.

Qatar
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Geopolitical and energy security considerations have brutally shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, prompting the US to regear its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia
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US President Joe Biden’s imminent trip to the Middle East has prompted renewed discussion about the idea of a region-wide defence pact to counter Iran. Such ideas have long been floated for the GCC states alone – and always failed due to a lack of commitment among the six countries to pool their defence resources and command-and-control structures. The talk these days is of an even wider arrangement, involving the likes of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Israel.

Israel | Kuwait | Saudi Arabia | Bahrain | Oman | United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
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In contrast to the UAE’s public withdrawal from Yemen – where Emirati military forces formally pulled out last October, although it has retained a less widely publicised presence, notably on the islands of Socotra and Mayyun – Oman has steadily increased its influence in the worn-torn state.

Yemen | Oman | United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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While America and Europe continue to present a united front in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the UAE’s more ambivalent stance continues to cause concern in western capitals – and has the potential to undermine, or at least complicate, the country’s diplomatic and commercial relations with the United States and its allies.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Sheikh Khalid Bin Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan has attempted to cement his status within the political arena and strengthen his profile among local citizens since he was named Abu Dhabi’s crown prince on 29 March, in a move which put the 41 year-old first in line to succeed his father, President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ). 

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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An election victory next May seems to be Presidential Hassan Rouhani’s to lose, but the big winners on the Iranian business scene continue to be the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC or Pasdaran) and other conservative factions – a harsh reality for oil majors considering investments and others hoping for a soft landing in Iran after the nuclear deal. Their powerful position signals that hardliners are in no way in retreat, even if many Iranians would like to see genuine change.

Iran
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The battle for power and influence in Iran appeared to take a gruesome turn on 19 June, with the as-yet-unexplained death of fugitive judge Gholamreza Mansouri in a Bucharest hotel. Mansouri was being tried in absentia in Tehran as part of a wider, politically-inspired corruption clampdown. He had been speaking to the Iranian embassy in Bucharest in an effort to agree a return, but those negotiations broke down. Tehran put in an extradition request via Interpol instead, but before that process could be completed Mansouri was dead.

Iran
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Despite all his efforts to project a more modern, tolerant and less corrupt image of Saudi royalty, unhelpful stories continue to buzz around Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), in the process undermining his hopes of recasting the image of his country and its ruling dynasty. In the days leading up to his protracted visit to the United States, which began on 20 March, stories broke in the international media which take at least some of the sheen off his carefully-curated reformist image.

Saudi Arabia
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 There is mounting evidence of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)’s recent appreciation of diplomatic endeavours, which is apparent in the revelations of talks with Iran in Baghdad (GSN 1,124/17), renewed attempts to secure a peace deal in Yemen, signs of a reset of relations with Syria and Turkey and the Al-Ula agreement in January, which ended the Qatar boycott.

Saudi Arabia
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Being a small country surrounded by larger feuding neighbours is never a comfortable place to be. Bahrain has been working hard to build a stronger relationship with US President Donald Trump, both as part of its alignment with Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, but also on its own account, reinforcing wider alliances as a bolster against a resurgent Iran across the Gulf and with a restive majority Shia population at home.

Bahrain
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With further concerns about the health of Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, following his admission to hospital in the United States during September, attention is inevitably turning to the often-intricate politics of succession in Kuwait.In the country’s modern history, succession within the ruling Al-Sabah family has been marked by the custom that the emir is picked in turn from the two main branches of the family.

Kuwait
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Controversy has erupted in Saudi Arabia over the position of Ahmed Al-Ghamdi, head of the Mecca branch of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. He first hit the headlines late last year after an interview in Okaz newspaper in which he spoke openly about ikhtilat, the mixing of unrelated men and women,

Saudi Arabia
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On 14 November in Beijing, state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) announced the official opening of Aramco Asia, a wholly owned affiliate of Saudi Aramco headquartered in the Chinese capital, and intended to serve as the “business and cultural exchange portal between Saudi Aramco and China”.

Saudi Arabia