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Freedom of expression is a proud Kuwaiti boast in a region where most countries restrict public debate and media comment. The existence of a powerful and democratically elected parliament is only one facet of a society that can justifiably claim to stand out from its neighbours for the pluralism and vigour of its political culture.

The 3 January presentation of diplomatic credentials by the new Saudi and Lebanese ambassadors, Walid Al-Yaacoub and Fawzi Kabbara, restores a sheen of respectability to a long-standing relationship that was undermined by prime minister Saad Hariri’s allegedly forced resignation, made in Riyadh at Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS)’s behest. Some of the heat has been taken out of that situation, but Riyadh appears determined to continue with a more activist policy across the Levant, even at the risk of creating more instability.

The Saudi bombing of targets in Yemen has underlined the potential for the crisis in the poor and populous southern Arabian state to flare into wider conflict (see Risk management report – Saudi Arabia). Escalation of the crisis also poses major problems for opposition forces within the country, who are well aware of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s ability to turn a political and humanitarian drama to his advantage.

While the post-election narrative in Iraq has focused on Moqtada Al-Sadr’s enhanced position as political kingmaker, the former firebrand’s relative success in the 12 May poll reveals more about the growing gap between political elites and the people they are meant to represent than any putative radicalisation of the electorate under Shia clerical leadership. Sadr’s Sairoon (On the Move) electoral bloc secured more votes than any other faction in the election, taking 54 out of 329 seats – albeit on a record low turnout of just 44.5% of registered voters.

While the secession of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) area has occupied most attention, a failure of state-building in post-Baathist Iraq might also see other regions looking for at least Kurdish levels of autonomy, if not outright independence. Of most concern to Baghdad would be the hydrocarbons-rich south. GSN spoke to a range of decision-makers in Basra to test the support for different kinds of decentralisation in the province, which has been called ‘the failed Gulf state’ by historians of the area

It’s been a busy summer for Emirati foreign minister Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (ABZ). As Egypt unravels, the UAE has found itself (willingly) thrust into the role of regional go-to guy, at times explaining the shape of the crisis to a much-confused West. Within days of the overthrow of Mohammed Morsi (GSN 951/1), ABZ was in Cairo. On 9 July, he accompanied his brother, national security adviser Hazza Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, to see General Abdelfattah El Sisi and interim president Adly Mansour; there followed the announcement of $3bn in aid.

The diplomatic community in the UAE is still weighing the significance of a series of early August tweets by federal Vice President and prime minister and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, in which ‘MBR’ criticised politicians who failed to focus on facilitating and managing change “in their own backyards”. In a trio of messages on 4 August, MBR tweeted that “great achievements speak for themselves, not empty speeches with meaningless words” and that the Arab world had a “surplus of politicians” but “a shortage of administrators” who were focused on the plight of the people and on delivering concrete improvements.

The sudden fuel price rises imposed overnight on 14/15 November which sparked a wave of protests that swept across Iran, and the brutal repression of those demonstrations, speak volumes about the character of a political system forged from the ruins of the Pahlavi regime in 1979 which soon evolved into the current velayat-e faqih (Rule of the Supreme Jurisprudent). The Islamic Revolution, and the subsequent eight-year war with Iraq, provided a crucible for institutions like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and bonyads (religious foundations) to develop networks and businesses that go far beyond their military or charitable core.

Some clarity is emerging as to how Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said will seek to shape Oman as he approaches his 100th day in office since the death on 10 January of Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said. The best guide to Haitham’s plans remains his televised speech on 23 February, at the end of official mourning. Clearly meant as the outline of a comprehensive strategic vision, the speech was all the more revealing because it was drafted and written by the sultan himself.

Head of state security General Abdelaziz Bin Mohammed Al-Howairini faces another challenging year at the helm of the Presidency of Public Security (PPS). Having been rehabilitated by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), Al-Howairini has the heavy task of protecting domestic security. This was challenging even before the assassination of Iranian military kingpin Qassem Soleimani, which drive reprisals on Saudi soil.

Among more than 200 prisoners pardoned by Oman’s Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said on the occasion of Renaissance Day on 23 July were 14 activists jailed for taking part in anti-government protests in 2011. The day before the anniversary of the sultan’s accession, it emerged that the amnesty would extend to the 14 so-called Sohar prisoners, who were serving terms of between 30 months and five years for their role in protests in the northern industrial port town. Charges against them included verbally insulting public servants, blocking traffic, causing public inconvenience and vandalising public property.

The region stretching from the Bosphorus to the Gulf must accommodate itself to a new strategic reality, as the United States – under new management and with a harrowing roster of domestic issues to resolve – disengages from Iraq, while focusing hard on Afghanistan and its neighbours.

The dispatch of a high-level Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) delegation to Tehran on 16 July was another sign of the swelling domestic and foreign unease at Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani’s almost indecent haste in pushing for an independence referendum in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The signs are that Kurds will vote for independence from Baghdad on 25 September, which will severely complicate relations with Shia-dominated Iraq and the wider region.

Washington’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) opens with a preamble, signed by Barack Obama – a president burnishing his legacy ahead of the November 2016 election in the face of security crises his administration is hard-pressed to counter. “Today, the United States is stronger and better positioned to seize the opportunities of a still new century and safeguard our interests against the risks of an insecure world,” the preamble says, citing “America’s growing economic strength [as] the foundation of our national security and a critical source of our influence abroad”.

Kuwait’s press has rightfully earned itself a reputation as one of the most vibrant and free in the Arab world. It is not uncommon to see Kuwaiti papers splash on political and economic scandals and controversies, or even report on infighting within the ruling Al-Sabah, something which would scarcely be imaginable in the other Gulf monarchies. But over the last few months, the press in Kuwait has grown increasingly silent; uncannily so. The silence does not reflect a period of political calm, however. Rather it shows a growing fear among journalists and politicians that reporting anything about brewing political issues might get them into trouble