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Alongside the bigger question of what imprint the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis in Yemen will leave on the region is another fascinating question for those with a taste for the intrigues of Saudi royal politics: from where, and whom, did Saudi Arabia’s new assertive position come? Attempts to reply to a large extent fall into the realm of palace speculation, but there are several things worth noting. Saudi Arabia’s willingness and ability to organise and lead such a high-profile campaign is a sign both that the new ruler is happy to assert his regional leadership, and that the broader leadership is less afflicted by the sense of drift which pervaded the last of King Abdullah’s years.

A day after Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) embarked on his tour of fellow Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) member states – starting with Oman where he met Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said on 6 December – there was an inconvenient reminder of how hard it is to venture any further afield and how past decisions continue to constrain the Saudi strongman.

They may not see eye to eye on many issues but, in their different ways, all Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) members have made themselves useful to Donald Trump, as the US president seeks to tick off his regional policy points ahead of a bid for re-election in November. Trump’s “Deal of the Century” to wrap up to the Israel-Palestine conflict requires key Arab allies, led by Saudi Arabia, to play an expensive leading role; they have paid lip service to the plan despite public reluctance to support arrangements that cannot play well on the street.

The outbreak of fighting between rival generals in Sudan in mid-April has been met with an increasingly active diplomatic stance by Saudi Arabia, which has taken a clear lead among Gulf countries in responding to the crisis  – offering further evidence of the new approach being taken to international relations by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS).

Commerce spoke louder than diplomacy when the state-owned QatarEnergy announced a ten-year deal to supply condensate to the Dubai government-owned Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc). It represents the first major commercial deal since the two Gulf Co-operation Council partners (or mainly, in recent years, rivals) agreed in June to reopen their respective embassies.

It is almost a year since 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was arrested in Tehran for failing to adhere to Iran's strict dress code for women. She died in police custody on 16 September, prompting nationwide outrage which soon morphed into the "Women, Life, Freedom" protest movement. The Iranian government has been nervously preparing for the anniversary of Amini's death, by targeting protestors and their supporters.

Conservative tribal and Islamist voices are increasing their power and influence in the Kuwaiti political arena, with the government providing tacit support to their growing dominance over liberal and urban merchant figures.

The turmoil that has broken out in Israel and Gaza in recent days may lead to a recalibration by Yemen's Houthis of what they should put on their list of demands and how much pressure they can exert on Saudi Arabia in any further rounds of talks. It might also concentrate minds in Riyadh about the need to secure a viable settlement in Yemen, so that the land beyond its southern border is not a long-term harbour of potential danger.

The latest Israeli-Palestinian flare-up is an all-too familiar expression of scarcely bottled-up frustrations in the West Bank and Gaza, which the aggressive departure from any two-state solution by Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and his allies has exacerbated (GSN 1,097/1). GSN’s analysis of social media shows that, in the era of the Abraham Accords (GSN 1,109/1), the crisis – which began in the Jerusalem suburb of Sheikh Jarrah and spread more widely before focusing on Gaza and then, on 18 May, triggering mass protests on the West Bank – has exposed new rifts in attitudes. The ‘Arab street’ hasn’t disappeared – it has gone online.

British Prime Minister David Cameron was back in the UAE for the third time in as many years on 16 November, this time heading to Dubai just ahead of the 17-21 November Dubai Airshow (see page 14). There was immediate political gain to be had from the UAE’s deals with Airbus, worth more than $60bn. A380 wings are designed and assembled at UK sites in Filton and Broughton, part of an Airbus programme worth around $24bn to the UK economy; Cameron has made considerable noise about revitalising relationships with the Gulf, and was able to conclude that the new deals resulted from this effort.

The Gulf Co-operation Council states are in a more delicate and divided condition than they have been for decades – a set of circumstances which presents significant opportunities for Iran. However, understanding how and where Tehran might try to exploit their discomfort is as difficult as ever. An analysis of Iran’s understanding of its key enemies’ weaknesses and the Iranian military machine’s most relevant capabilities might help.

Prince Turki Al-Faisal has again shown his capacity to express Saudi policy concerns that go beyond the platitudes that too often pass for political discourse in the Gulf, this time discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and interference in regional conflict zones. Turki speaks with authority,

There was a lull in the speculation over the potential bombing of Iran by the United States or - more likely - its ally Israel, with the world transfixed by Barak Obama's victory in the US presidential election. Talk of significant offensive action against Tehran became intense during the late summer, with two theories circulating on the eventuality of a strike to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities and perhaps other targets. One theory was that the outgoing Bush administration would sanction a strike as its last neo-conservative hurrah; and, two, that Israel would be emboldened to act. In September, UK daily The Guardian, added to the debate by publishing details of documents showing how Washington had sought to rein in Israeli hawks who were ready to attack.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad garnered moral backing during his mid-January voyage around five of Latin America’s ‘anti-imperialist’ states, but he seems to have come away with little material support to counter Iran’s growing crisis of international isolation – underlined on 23 January, when European Union foreign ministers agreed on the much-anticipated embargo on Iranian oil imports (effective from 1 July).

Bahrain’s legally registered political groups are working to shore up their vote and persuade their constituencies they remain worthy of support ahead of National Assembly and municipal elections scheduled for this year, probably November. Much attention has been paid to parties supported by the Shia majority, led by Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society, which holds 17 of the 40 Majlis Al-Nawab (Chamber of Deputies) seats.