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Kuwait is preparing for legislative elections on 5 December in what is shaping into one of the most important polls in recent history. Candidate registration closed on 4 November, by when 395 individuals had put  themselves forward. That is significantly down from the last election in 2016, when 440 candidates signed up. Among the new crop are 33 women, the largest number of female contenders yet.

GSN’s year-end Perspective/Agenda feature provides a look back – and forwards – at key events across the region in 2020-21. It gives an opportunity to update the Risk Grades included with each of our regular Risk management reports. After another year of tragedy, Yemen is effectively a failed state (rated F6, the bottom political and financial grades). Qatar has shown itself to be robust in the face of its neighbours’ boycott, its finances warranting an upgrade to 1, putting it on a par with the UAE. Iraq’s political standoffs and financial woes remain deeply troubling, but the situation is improving rather than deteriorating and the prospect of higher oil prices next year should help further; it has been upgraded from E5↑ to D4↓. Oman’s fiscal challenges continue to mount, prompting a downgrade of its economic rating to 3. 

Budget talks in Baghdad are going down to the wire over the thorny issue of allocations to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The negotiations are the latest manifestation of a long-running dispute between Iraq’s centre and its periphery that has proved stubbornly immune to resolution since the late Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime was ousted in 2003. There is added friction in the Baghdad-Erbil standoff, with Iraqi Shia parties increasingly vexed at what they view as a resurgence of Kurdish independence hopes.

Governments around the Gulf appear to have rediscovered the potential for diplomacy to settle their differences in a significant mood shift after the turmoil of the Donald Trump presidency, when allies knew there was little chance of being upbraided for anything deemed ethically questionable or destabilising, as long as they kept buying American military equipment.

Regional rivalries are not necessarily forever – they may dissolve into historic rapprochements, which is how senior diplomats in the Gulf would probably prefer to interpret recent political and diplomatic manoeuvres involving Qatar, the UAE and Egypt in East Africa.

On 22 July, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated a new oil pipeline running from Goreh in Bushehr province to a terminal at Jask in Hormozgan province, on the Gulf of Oman. The 1,000km, 42-inch link provides a strategically important new export outlet for Iranian crude.

The UAE’s relationship with the United Kingdom has become characterised by warm state-to-state interactions and large investment deals. The wealth of Abu Dhabi coupled with the commercial drive of Dubai make an attractive partner for the idea of a ‘Global Britain’ that Prime Minister Boris Johnson likes to promote following the UK’s exit from the European Union.

Protocol often seems to overwhelm normal news flow in Bahrain, as senior officials – most of them from the Al-Khalifa family – receive foreign visitors and congratulate each other at dutifully-reported occasions and in myriad telegrams. Any hint of speculation about the balance of power in the ruling Al-Khalifa family remains deeply hidden.

An attempt by GCC secretary-general Nayef Al-Hajraf to convene a fresh round of dialogue in Riyadh for Yemen war belligerents appears to have failed, with the Houthis refusing to take part. However, there are signs of further Saudi-inspired political initiatives to break the stalemate on the ground, which could have significant consequences for President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the wider political process.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to roil global oil and gas markets – particularly in Europe where countries are chasing alternative supplies to reduce their heavy energy dependency on Russia.

Bahrain is heading into another election for its unicameral  parliament, the Council of Representatives (Majlis Al-Nuwab), amid calls by government critics to shun the event.There are doubts about the level of voter enthusiasm even without a formal boycott, with opposition parties such as Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society and Waad (the National Democratic Action Society) still banned

Tempers are fraying over the early-October decision by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies in the Opec+ group to cut oil production. The most prominent members, Russia and Saudi Arabia, remain in a cosy alliance and western efforts to drive a wedge between Moscow and the Gulf countries have yet to show any returns. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seem unfazed by any possible reputational risks, while they continue to sweat the global economy for revenues.

The UAE is preparing for its 51st National Day on 2 December with the usual talk of unity and joint endeavour. However, one consequence of the wide-ranging social and economic reforms introduced in recent years is that the idea of Emirati national identity may now be more contentious than it has been for decades.

Kuwait has all but left behind its former status as a pre-eminent hub of regional diplomacy, as the leadership is widely perceived to have walked away from its role as mediator in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and its neighbours. Concerned by this apparent inaction on the regional stage, GSN has been asking: why has Kuwait apparently retired from playing such a significant diplomatic role?

Even while Iranian diplomatic efforts are focused on talks with global powers to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the nuclear deal whose revival would significantly improve the economic outlook – the domestic situation remains fragile.