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Key associates have been restructuring their operations following former British prime minister Tony Blair’s decision, announced in September, to reduce his controversial business dealings through Tony Blair Associates (TBA) and his other Firerush and Windrush companies – allowing him to focus on his African governance initiative and a belated attempt to project political influence in the UK following the ‘Brexit’ vote. TBA’s Abu Dhabi-based regional head for the Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe (from June 2012 to October 2016), Austrian lawyer and former McKinsey & Company consultant Dr Andreas Baumgartner, has re-emerged as managing director of a Dubai-based firm StrategyImpactReputation (StIR).

A former opposition MP was summoned for questioning on 6 January, in relation to comments he posted on Twitter during Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s visit to Kuwait. According to human rights groups, Saleh Al-Mulla was charged on 7 January with insulting both Sisi and Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah. He was released on bail on 11 January, and has a hearing scheduled for 15 February.

Minister for economy and planning Mohammed Al-Jasser told a financial conference in Riyadh that subsidies – a politically sensitive but increasingly important issue in Saudi Arabia – are distorting the economy and need to be addressed. Speaking on 7 May, Al-Jasser said the government was “trying to address” the problem, though he did not give any details.

Qatar has found itself in an uncomfortable position over Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria, following the United States’ decision to abandon its Kurdish allies. The assault by Turkish forces which began on 9 October has been widely condemned. A meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on 12 October ended with a call for Turkey to halt the operation.

Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah arrived back in Kuwait on 9 October following private visits to the United States and Britain. The emir spent a brief time in London on his way home from New York, where he appears to have been based since late August.

GSN provides a round up of developments in three court cases: Sheikh Meshaal Jarrah Al-Sabah v UBS AG, Sharab v HRH Al-Saud, Habtoor Leighton Group v Al Faisal Holding

Support for the Salafists is in contrast to continued antipathy to Al-Ikhwan Al-Muslimeen (the Muslim Brotherhood or MB). Saudi Arabia renewed its listing of the MB as a terrorist organisation prior to King Salman Bin Abdelaziz’s 8 April visit to Cairo. Other regional states including the UAE – where Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed remains viscerally opposed to the Ikhwan – also lists the MB as a terrorist organisation. This directly affects the balance of alliances in Yemen, where the MB is an integral element within Sunni Islamist party Al-Islah.

A square in the Egyptian city of Luxor has been named after Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. The governor of Luxor province, Major General Tariq Saad Eddin, was quoted on 26 May by UAE state news agency Wam as saying the decision to name one of the largest squares in Luxor after the Emirati president was made “in recognition of the historical stance of the UAE in support of Egypt”. The UAE, like Saudi Arabia, has been one of the most vocal supporters of the July overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and has since given generous financial support to Cairo.

Preliminary results from Iraq’s 30 April general election (GSN 969/1) showed that Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki won the largest share of seats in the 328-seat parliament, boosting his chances of a third term in office. Maliki’s State of Law Coalition won 92 seats, according to the Independent High Electoral Commission, still short of a majority, but more than expected and considerably more than the Sadrists and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq’s bloc, which won 28 and 29 seats respectively. The Kurds got 62 seats, Osama Al-Nujaifi’s Mutahidun coalition won 23, Iyad Allawi’s Wataniya won 21, and Saleh Al-Mutlaq’s Al-Arabiya won nine. Negotiations to form a new government are expected to last weeks, if not months.

Omani online activist Hassan Al-Basham died aged 52 on 28 April, while being held at Samail Central Prison, 80km south of Muscat. According to advocacy group the Gulf Centre for Human Rights (GCHR), Al-Basham’s death followed a sudden deterioration in his health including a sharp drop in blood sugar levels. No detailed medical reports have yet emerged.Retired diplomat Al-Basham was heavily involved in the 2011 protests in Sohar.

UAE authorities have again targeted Islamist group Al-Islah, arresting at least eight more members in 48 hours. High-profile lawyer Mohammad Al-Rokn was among those detained in a wave of house raids and detentions that began in the early hours of 16 July. All are members of Jamiat Al-Islah wa Tawjih (Association for Reform and Guidance), an Islamist group with a similar ideology to the Muslim Brotherhood that has been subject to an increasingly intense crackdown by state security since the start of the Arab Spring (GSN 924/3).

Efforts to defuse tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are continuing apace, drawing in more countries in the region and beyond. Oman, Kuwait and now Qatar appear fully engaged in the potential détente, and more international powers are also offering their good offices.Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif travelled to Doha for talks with Emir Sheikh Tamin Bin Hamad Al-Thani and foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani on 8 March.

Screening success: Health and prevention minister Dr. Abdul Rahman Bin Mohammad Al-Owais claimed on 17 June the UAE now ranked first in the world in terms of coronavirus testing per capita, having carried out 3m tests on citizens and residents – up from 1m in late April. The average number of tests per day is now running at around 40,000. As of 29 June, some 47,797 people had contracted the disease across the country, with 313 deaths and close to 30,000 recoveries. The number of new daily cases fell through much of June to around 400 cases a day at the end of the month, with 1-2 deaths on most days.

In the wake of a terrorist attack that left eight people dead and at least 12 wounded in the Eastern Province village of Al-Dalwah on 3 November, the Saudi authorities moved quickly to arrest the alleged perpetrators and reassure the province’s Shia community. Three attackers armed with machine guns attacked a group of young Shia who had just left a Husseiniya or congregation hall, where they had attended an Ashura ceremony, commemorating the death in 680 AD of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson Hussein, a moment that led to the schism between Sunni and Shia Islam.

Khamis Khanjar’s Sunni Arab Project in Iraq party – founded in July 2017, which took nine seats in the Iraqi parliament in 2018 – is investing substantially in a US lobbying effort. Millionaire Khanjar and his son Sarmad Khanjar have retained both the San Francisco arm of law firm Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP on a $770,000/year contract and Tennessee-based Morris Global Strategies (MGS) at $40,000/month to work on communications with US government officials and other policy issues.