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Kuwait and Iraq have signed their first formal military agreement since the 1990-91 occupation, as both countries build up their coastal security.

Kuwait | Iraq
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The problem of Iranian penetration of Qatar's exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has long been a thorny one for the Qatari Emiri Navy (QEN), the emirate's coast guard and Qatari Emiri Air Force (QEAF). GSN's periodic surveys of the Project National Security Shield (NSS) system of radar and coastal surveillance has focused on the deep paranoia and touchiness that Doha feels when confronted with Iran's powerful and unpredictable naval forces. With the giant North Field/South Pars gas reserve not yet unitised, the shared field still has a 'wild west' feel about it, with the Iranians and Qataris staking out their claims with rigs instead of fence posts.

Qatar
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A flurry of diplomatic missions to Algiers during November emphasised the strengthening trade and investment bonds within the Middle East and North Africa region: defence deals were on the agenda.

United Arab Emirates (UAE) | Qatar
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As Saudi security forces in Makkah and Medina remain busy preparing for this year’s Hajj pilgrimage, securocrats continue to fret at the possibility of a major anti-western attack in Riyadh or Eastern Province. Memories of the recent interrupted reconnaissance

Saudi Arabia
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KAF Apache support deal for DynCorp BAE Systems in Eurofighter Typhoon talks with Oman. Qatar-India defence co-operation

Kuwait | Oman | Qatar
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The Iranian navy’s new naval base had been brought to active service near Jask, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. But analysts believe the base would not be operational during any US-Iran showdown.

Iran
Issue 840 - 07 November 2008

Bahrain: violence points to confrontation

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Street violence flared in Bahrain during late September and October, leading to another major security hunt for a group of Shia protestors who were allegedly involved in a serious assault on three men. The crowd threw a Molotov cocktail at a car that contained three Bahraini Shia male civilians who escaped with light injuries. Bahraini security insiders told GSN the attackers believed the vehicle carried a Bahraini Secret Intelligence Service (BSIS) surveillance team. Whatever the truth - no completely independent witnesses are yet available - the incident should be seen against the background of growing tension in Bahrain, as the authorities maintain a firm line which leading opposition figures fear will only deepen disenchantment among young Shiite men.

Bahrain
Issue 840 - 07 November 2008

France looks to export sales

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The UAE is traditionally a critical partner for the French defence aerospace industry. In a noteworthy step, the French Armée de l’Air (ALA – air force) deployed three of Dassault Aviation’s Mirage 2000-5F combat aircraft and a Boeing C-135FR aerial tanker/transport aircraft to the UAE as part of Paris’ plans to establish a permanent presence in the emirates.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Issue 840 - 07 November 2008

GSN view: 'Military action' against Iran

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There was a lull in the speculation over the potential bombing of Iran by the United States or - more likely - its ally Israel, with the world transfixed by Barak Obama's victory in the US presidential election. Talk of significant offensive action against Tehran became intense during the late summer, with two theories circulating on the eventuality of a strike to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities and perhaps other targets. One theory was that the outgoing Bush administration would sanction a strike as its last neo-conservative hurrah; and, two, that Israel would be emboldened to act. In September, UK daily The Guardian, added to the debate by publishing details of documents showing how Washington had sought to rein in Israeli hawks who were ready to attack.

Iran
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The Saudi Eurofighter purchase has given the European consortium a vital lead in the long-term market for the RSAF’s eventual replacement of some 178 strike aircraft by around 2020. Boeing may yet sell F-15s to the RSAF, but if the United States is betting on major sales in the Gulf, it is to Iraq and the UAE, not the Kingdom. France is also a player, with its hopes for major combat aircraft sales analysed by GSN in an article below.

Saudi Arabia
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Iraq is the other major source of advanced terrorist capability in Saudi Arabia, leading the Kingdom to quietly take steps to reduce potential blowback. The September announcement of a mutual extradition treaty between Saudi Arabia and Iraq received little media coverage but represents a significant development. The treaty stipulated “the exchange of convicted prisoners… so that they serve the rest of..

Saudi Arabia | Iraq
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When Qatar bought 12 Dassault Mirage 2000-5 combat aircraft in the late 1990s it was catapulted into pole position as the world’s highest per capita defence spender. Nearly ten years after the first Mirages

Qatar
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Yemeni-based militants constitute one external threat to expatriates. Indeed, the prospect of establishing bases in Yemen has been mentioned prominently in militant communiqués and in Saudi government statements since 2006.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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Maysan province provides a pointer to the evolution of politics and security under Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, in the Bush administration’s last months, where huge resources are needed to assist the traumatised, impoverished population in arguably Iraq’s most under-developed and wildest province.

Iraq
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The ‘hard stop’ armed takedown of a vehicle at a government checkpoint – a regular occurrence in 2004-05 – has become so rare that the unsuccessful 14 October attempt to stop a suspected terrorist vehicle in Eastern Riyadh was big news. The authorities seem to have the jihadist challenge under control, but Yemeni-based militants still pose a threat, as does potential ‘blow-back’ from Iraq

Saudi Arabia | Iraq