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Election law: Iraq’s parliament voted on 20 March to maintain the number of seats in the chamber at 329 for the next election. Five seats will be reserved for Christians, with one seat each reserved for the Sabean-Mandaean, Shabak, Faily Kurd and Yazidi minorities.

Iraq
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Qatar rapprochement: Efforts to rebuild relations between Manama and Doha are continuing, following a series of contacts between leading figures from both countries in January and February, including a phone call between Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani and Bahrain’s Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa in late January and a meeting between their foreign ministers in Riyadh in early February

Bahrain
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Free trade deal taking Tehran further into Russia’s orbit: Tehran continues to negotiate a free trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), with local media suggesting an agreement may be signed later this year. Six rounds of talks have been held, following a temporary agreement signed in May 2018 which came into force in 2019.

Iran
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Recent developments Attempts continue to renew the ceasefire in Yemen, but the emphasis has switched to finding a permanent settlement. Much of recent diplomatic activity has been necessarily secret. Saudi Arabia appears more urgently determined to extract itself from the war.

Yemen
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Updates on Regional and international organisations: Another Kuwaiti GCC secretary-general Regional electricity interconnection Support for Palestinians Arab League intellectual property committee World Bank leadership Updates on Opec and energy markets: Bumper year for revenues Opec+ holds solid Alternatives to the dollar? China and India are key players

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GSN Risk Grade Abu Dhabi A1, Dubai – A2↓ Sharjah credit rating: Standard & Poor’s (S&P) revised the outlook on its rating for the emirate from negative to stable on 24 January, while affirming the long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at BBB-. The ratings agency said it expected Sharjah’s overall fiscal position to gradually stabilise between now and 2026, with the deficit reducing over that time.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Cabinet reshuffle: Federal Vice President and Prime Minister, and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) announced a minor cabinet reshuffle on 7 February, with Shamma Al-Mazrui appointed community development minister (she is also COP28 ‘youth climate champion‘) and Salem Bin Khalid Al-Qassimi named culture and youth minister. 

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Ever more for Aramco trading: Saudi Aramco announced on 18 January that its Aramco Trading Company (ATC) arm had acquired United States-based Motiva Trading and launched a new subsidiary, Aramco Trading Americas (ATA). The latter will be the sole supplier and offtaker for Motiva Enterprises, which owns the 630,000 b/d Port Arthur refinery, the largest refinery in North America. Aramco had taken full control of the refinery in 2017, buying out its partner Royal Dutch Shell.

Saudi Arabia
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Budget increase: Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani approved the government’s 2023 budget on 19 December, based on spending of QR199bn ($54.7bn), down 3% compared to the previous year. According to the Ministry of Finance, total revenues for the year have been estimated at QR228bn, a rise of 16% compared to 2022 and leaving a budget surplus of QR29bn.

Qatar
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Mixed outlook but oil buoys economy: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said economic growth was likely to slow down in 2023, after growing by more than 8% in 2022, thanks to higher than expected oil prices.  

Kuwait
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Improving outlook:  Like most other hydrocarbons exporters, Oman’s economic outlook has been improved by a sustained period of high oil prices. We expect relatively buoyant oil and gas prices to continue through 2023, despite mixed signals from the global market. Added to a perception that economic performance is slowly improving on Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said’s watch, GSN has attached a positive upwards arrow to Oman’s economic and financial risk grade.

Oman
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GSN Risk Grade: D4↓ Election delay: The federal Supreme Court is due to hear several cases in the coming days over the decision by the Kurdistan Region parliament to postpone elections that were due on 1 October.The parliament voted on 9 October to extend its term until end-2023 due to disputes between parties over the election law.

Iraq
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Anti-corruption drive: Corruption remains a critical problem, which Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani’s government will be judged on. Sudani said on 11 December the government had recovered another ID134bn ($92m) stolen from the General Commission of Taxes, in a case known as the ‘Theft of the Century’. It took the total recovered to ID317bn, out of some ID3.7tn reported stolen.

Iraq
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GSN Risk Grade: F6 US explosives seizure: The United States Navy said it had intercepted a fishing vessel in international waters in the Gulf of Oman on 8 November and found a large quantity of explosive material which it said was being smuggled from Iran to Yemen.

Yemen
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G20 summit: UAE President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) led the Gulf’s representation at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia on 15-16 November and held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit on the first day.