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GSN Risk Grade – B↓2 Budget surplus: In a preliminary budget statement for 2023, issued on 30 September, the Ministry of Finance predicted a surplus of SR9bn in 2023, around 0.2% of GDP, based on revenues of SR1,123bn and expenditure of SR1,114bn.

GSN Risk Grade: B↑1 Population boom: The population has increased by 25% in little over a year, reaching a record high of 2,985,029 in September, according to the latest figures from the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA). In July 2021, at the lowest point in that year’s summer lull, there were just 2.38m people in the country.

GSN Risk Grade – B3 Hydrocarbons windfall improves rating: Oman is expected to be among the region’s main beneficiaries from elevated oil prices in 2022-23. Along with reforms introduced on Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said’s watch, this feeds into an improved economic outlook.

GSN Risk Grade – B↓2↓ Candidates line up: A total of 376 candidates have registered for the National Assembly (parliament) election, which is due to be held on 29 September. At least one candidate has since been ruled out, after police arrested an un-named former MP who was standing in the second constituency, accusing him of attempting to buy votes.

GSN Risk Grade: D4↑ National dialogue: A second round of talks between most of Iraq’s political leaders on 5 September saw them agree to work towards early elections. However, differences remain over the rules for any new vote. 

GSN Risk Grade: D4↓ Elections delayed: The election for the Kurdistan parliament is expected to be postponed by at least six months after the existing parliament failed to agree on the details of a new election bill. In a press conference in Erbil on 28 August, MP Yemen Hawrami said the remit of the exiting parliament – which was elected in 2018 for a four-year term – would be extended by six months.

GSN Risk Grade: C↑3↓ Election preparations: Elections for the Majlis Al-Nuwab (Council of Representatives) are due to be held in November, with 40 single-seat constituencies up for grabs. In preparation, the Ministry of Justice and Islamic Affairs has reportedly written to local political societies to warn them they should only meet representatives from foreign embassies in co-ordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and with a MFA representative in attendance.

GSN Risk Grade: D↓5 GCC ambassadors: The direction of political travel will undoubtedly be set by efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, but there has been some easing of regional tensions as Kuwait and the UAE sent ambassadors to Tehran for the first time since relations soured with the GCC countries in 2016.

GSN Risk Grade: D4↓ Recent developments- Presidential compromise: Talks between the main Kurdish political parties appear to have led to a breakthrough on an agreed candidate for the federal presidency – which has divided them since the October general election.

GSN Risk Grade: D4 Recent developments- Kadhimi to remain? A group of Iran-backed Shia parties known as the Co-ordination Framework may back Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi for another term of office, according to local media reports.

Bahrain’s latest GSN Risk Management Report remains unchanged at C3 with the political outlook showing positive momentum while the economic and financial outlook is negative. GCC allies led by Saudi Arabia are pressing harder for economic reforms. The oil price hike may generate some extra funds and but difficult deficit reduction measures are needed. King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa appears to be concentrating more power in the hands of Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, but in an opaque public sphere there is also speculation about his standing compared to that of his brother Sheikh Nasser. Majority Shia community concerns over social disadvantage and human rights abuses remain a big issue that gains only a limited hearing from the authorities and much of the media.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s GSN Risk Management Report grade of D4 with a negative outlook for economic and financial risk remains unchanged. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) continue to negotiate over a possible joint candidate for the federal presidency, held since October 2018 by PUK nominee Barham Salih. Not date has been set for the fifth Kurdistan Parliament election, but preparations have begun for a poll in 2022.  The Kurdistan Regional Government earned net revenues of $1.7bn in 2021 from crude exports via the Ceyhan terminal in Turkey but some receipts are stuck in Lebanese banks due to currency restrictions. Local economic, security and political conditions have resulted in large outward waves of migration towards Europe.

Political, financial and economic risk grades for the UAE Federation stay unaltered at the highest level in GSN's latest Risk Management Report, reflecting the overall stability of the polity. In recent developments, Abu Dhabi, in the role of ‘Little Sparta’, has driven the UAE’s activist regional policy from East Africa to the Yemeni island of Socotra while retrenching in Libya and other conflict zones. Rapprochement with Israel has continued and relations with Qatar remain uneasy, despite the Gulf Co-operation Council ending the 40-month boycott.

Political rapprochement between GCC rivals, along with rich pickings from high oil prices and a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout meant the past year has been a relatively benign one for those outside the region’s conflict zones, according to GSN’s annual survey of developments across the region. In this special issue, we present refreshed Risk Management Reports for each of the nine countries in the region (as well as the Kurdistan region and individual UAE emirates) and some big picture analysis to complement GSN’s usual detailed focus on the minutiae of political and business life.

GSN maintains Qatar’s B1 risk grade with a positive momentum for political risk in its most recent Risk Management Report. It still has many critics, but Qatar is finalising plans for the Fifa World Cup. The Arab Cup, won by Algeria in December, provided a successful test run of facilities. An expensive PR machine will argue that the Al-Thani-dominated emirate has considerably improved workers’ rights and created a more inclusive political system. Qatar’s global standing benefited from its central role in the Afghanistan drama