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IsDB green bond issue: The Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) raised €1bn in five-year trust certificates on 27 November, marking the successful pricing of its first ‘green’ sukuk (Islamic bond). The paper was issued under the bank’s $25bn trust certificate issuance programme and was its third debt issuance this year. The joint lead managers and joint bookrunners on the issue were Citi, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, Natixis, Société Générale, Warba Bank and Standard Chartered Bank.

Riyadh agreement: President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government signed an accord with the Southern Transition Council in the Saudi capital on 5 November. The Saudi government had played a critical role in bringing the two sides together, in a development which should help to avert another front opening up in the country’s long-running conflict in the wake of the UAE decision to withdraw most of its forces from the arena.

Strategic retreat: Following the surprise drawdown of forces from Yemen announced in July, there have been signs of a wider reduction in the UAE’s overseas reach. Among recent developments, GSN has heard that UAE support for Libyan rebel Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar is in question, following his Libyan National Army (LNA)’s failure to take Tripoli this summer.

Abu Dhabi-Dubai tensions: The relationship between the two most powerful members of the federation has been coming under strain amid shifting geopolitical and economic trends. Among points of contention are Abu Dhabi’s strategy of trying to freeze out Qatar and Iran, which Dubai views as expensive quarrels that offer no beneficial outcomes.

Economic growth: Qatar is set to register the GCC’s joint fastest growth this year, alongside Bahrain, according to the latest IMF forecasts. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) predicts a 2% expansion of GDP in 2019, rising to 2.8% next year. As with most countries in the region, those numbers are lower than the IMF had forecast in April; in its last WEO report the IMF was expecting 2.6% growth this year and 3.2% in 2020. Regional tensions and reduced oil production have been hindering many Gulf economies, but for Qatar there is the added complication of the economic boycott by its neighbours, since June 2017.

Energy and foreign affairs reshuffles: Several rounds of government reorganisation started in late August, as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has sought to inject more life into his economic reform programme and prepare for Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO). A big loser was Khalid Al-Falih, who was replaced as Aramco chairman by Public Investment Fund head Yasir Al-Rumayyan. Falih also lost control of the industry and mineral resources ministerial portfolios and on 8 September was replaced as energy minister by Prince Abdelaziz Bin Salman.

Emir’s health: Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah was forced to cancel a planned meeting at the White House with United States President Donald Trump on 12 September due to health concerns. The nature of subsequent medical tests was not disclosed, but officials have continually stressed the results have been positive. The 90-year-old emir has received a string of visitors from the Gulf while in New York and fielded phone calls from regional leaders enquiring.

Majlis Al-Shura election: The election of 85 members to the ninth Majlis Al-Shura (Consultative Council) is scheduled for 27 October, with 767 candidates standing, 43 of them female. Voter registration closed in September, when preliminary numbers showed there would be 375,801 male and 337,534 female voters. Interior minister Sayyid Hamoud Bin Faisal Al-Busaidi said this increase on previous numbers reflected “the growing desire among citizens to exercise voting rights and take responsibility in the march of progress”.

Border issues: Iran closed its Khosravi border crossing near the Iraqi city of Khanaqin, on the fringes of the KRI, on 3 October after a request from Baghdad due to security issues. This followed widespread protests around Iraq. The KRI has largely avoided any impact from the protests, which have been concentrated in Baghdad and the south.

Protests turn deadly: President Barham Salih called for “restraint and respect for the law” after security forces opened fire on anti-government protesters in Baghdad and a number of southern cities on 1 October. In the week of violence that followed– and continued as GSN went to press – at least 100 people were killed and several thousand were injured. “Our young Iraqi children are looking for reform and jobs, and our duty is to meet these legitimate entitlements,” Salih said.

Gulf shipping: Tehran is widely believed to have been behind a series of attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman in May and June, although it has denied any involvement. The UAE was notably reticent to blame Iran and surprised observers by sending a delegation to Tehran on 30 July to discuss marine security. Omani officials also travelled to Iran in late July to discuss the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tribal allegiance: Some 190 Bahraini tribes and families issued statements condemning Qatar and stressing their allegiance to King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa, in a co-ordinated campaign that began after Qatar’s Al Jazeera Media Network aired a documentary on 14 July, which alleged the Al-Khalifa had conspired with Al-Qaeda to target Bahrain’s opponents. One observer told GSN the statements “add up to a more or less comprehensive list of all families and tribes in Bahrain”.

UAE drawdown: UAE officials have confirmed the Emirates are reducing their military commitment, in the process starting a new phase in the war. The extent of the UAE drawdown remains unclear. Most of the focus has been on a scaling back of commitments in Aden, Hodeida and Marib. However, Abu Dhabi seems likely to maintain some sort of presence in a few key areas. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia is being forced to deploy forces into areas vacated by the UAE.

Dubai family dispute: Family issues have brought Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) into an unwelcome light – which will be amplified when, as widely expected, the case goes to court in London. His wife Princess Haya Bint Al-Hussein has fled the UAE with their two children – Zayed, aged 7 and Jalila, aged 11 – to seek sanctuary in Europe. Haya, a daughter of the late King Hussein and sister of Jordan’s King Abdullah II, married MBR in 2004 and has had the most public exposure of his wives.

Yemen withdrawal: The UAE has begun scaling back its military commitment in Yemen, in a significant strategic shift following more than four years of war. Reports of the change to UAE strategy first emerged in late June and were later confirmed by officials in Dubai, who said the move had been planned for more than a year.