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Khashoggi report: A hard-hitting report on the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi was released on 19 June by United Nations special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions Agnes Callamard. It said the Saudi government was responsible for the killing and that there was “credible evidence, warranting further investigation, of high-level Saudi officials’ individual liability, including the crown prince” Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS). The Saudi authorities were quick to reject the report’s claims.

Gulf schism: The dispute between Qatar and the GCC-3 passed its second anniversary in early June, with no sign of any resolution. Instead, the two sides continue to try and score points against each other in international arenas. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has agreed to set up a panel to investigate alleged restrictions by Qatar on the import and sale of goods from the UAE. This followed an Emirati complaint that the measures were in violation of WTO rules.

Oil output: Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has confirmed the upwards trend in its operations, on 16 June announcing a 13-year high production level of 610,170 b/d. In its 2018 ‘sustainability report’, PDO also announced production at 65,300 b/d for condensate and 64.8 mcm/d of natural gas in the last year. “Overall the company has been able to achieve 1.205m barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2018”, the report said.

Emiri diplomacy: Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah (who celebrated his 90th birthday on 16 June) travelled to Baghdad on 19 June in his latest effort to mend some diplomatic divides. Relations with Iraq have been improving in recent times, and Sheikh Sabah was expected to use that to try and alleviate the pressure that Baghdad finds itself under amid rivalry between Iran and the United States.

Gulf outreach: Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi has been leading a concerted effort to rebuild ties with Iraq’s Gulf Co-operation Council neighbours, with a series of visits to regional capitals since April. A string of political and economic agreements were signed in Riyadh, followed by talks in Kuwait and Oman’s re-establishment of full diplomatic relations. After a visit to Doha, Abdul-Mahdi said Baghdad was “keen to establish the best relations with our Arab and Islamic surroundings and neighbouring countries”.

Presidential election: Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Nechirvan Barzani was elected president in a vote by the of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s parliament on 28 May. Barzani won 68 votes from the 81 MPs present. The vote was boycotted by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and New Generation Movement (Naway Nwe), due to wider disagreements with the KDP. Barzani had previously been serving as prime minister of the KRG. He was expected to nominate his cousin, Kurdistan Region Security Council head Masrour Barzani, to take over as PM.

International diplomacy: Foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has embarked on a particularly active schedule of international travel, in an effort to limit the economic and political damage caused by US sanctions. In May, Zarif visited key partners in Asia and there have been talks in Tehran with some friendlier faces from within the region. A critical relationships is with Iraq, where Iran’s extensive political, security and economic interests are being targeted by the US.

Palestinian summit and Trump’s ‘deal of the century’: Manama has agreed to host a conference to encourage inward investment into the Palestinian economy, in partnership with the United States. The 25-26 June Peace to Prosperity event – described as an “economic workshop” – appears to be the first concrete element of the much-discussed “deal of the century”, promoted by US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Kuwaiti takes over UN commission: Economist Rola Dashti took over as executive secretary of the Beirut-based United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) on 7 February; she is also a UN under-secretary-general. Dashti is a former Kuwaiti planning and development minister, and was one of four women who became the first to be elected to the National Assembly (parliament) in May 2009. She has also served as minister of state for parliamentary affairs.

Geopolitical pressure on Opec+: The US decision to cut waivers on Iranian oil sales from 2 May undercut the Opec+ group’s efforts to maintain price and production discipline, by forcing Tehran to cut output further (from around 3.85m b/d to under 2.8m b/d year-on-year). Iranian exports are likely to fall further from around 1.4m b/d to below 1m b/d. Adding to pressure is the conflict in Libya – whose National Oil Corporation is struggling to maintain output at around 1m b/d – and the Venezuela crisis.

Civilian casualties: 26 March marked the fourth anniversary of the entry of the Saudi Arabia / UAE-led coalition into the Yemen conflict. The independent Yemen Data Project (YDP) has tracked 19,553 air raids by coalition forces in that time. It says the air raids have caused at least 17,729 civilian causalities, including 8,345 deaths and 9,399 injuries. These numbers are almost certainly under-estimates as the YDP only uses the most conservative figures in its reporting.

Northern emirates infrastructure: Federal Vice President, prime minister and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) unveiled infrastructure spending worth nearly Dh18bn ($4.9bn) during a series of visits to the northern emirates in late February/early March. This was interpreted as part of a wider ‘carrot-and-stick approach’ to the often over-looked region. In late February, MBR visited Ajman and Umm Al-Quwain to announce Dh11bn on road and infrastructure projects.

Government stasis: Kurdish political parties may be close to reaching a compromise on a number of key issues as they try to form a new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), more than four months after the 30 September regional elections. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) won 45 seats in the 111-seat assembly, while the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) picked up 21 seats, offering a viable majority if they can agree a coalition deal.

Watching Tehran: President Donald Trump provoked a diplomatic storm on 4 February when he said US forces needed to stay in Iraq to ‘keep an eye on Iran’. Speaking to the CBS Face the Nation programme, Trump said “one of the reasons I want to keep” the Ain Al-Asad airbase in western Iraq “is because I want to be looking a little bit at Iran, because Iran is a real problem.” The comments were condemned by leading figures in Iraq, including President Barham Saleh who said it would deviate from the 2008 US-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement.

Domestic rivalries: Different factions within the Islamic Republic continue to compete for power and influence in the system, with many keeping an eye on the health of the 79-year-old Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and preparing for what might follow his demise. The death of Expediency Council chairman Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi in December opened the way for a reshuffle of some senior posts. Judiciary chief Amoli Larijani was picked to replace Shahroudi, while hard-line conservative Ebrahim Raeisi has been mooted as a possible candidate to take over as head of the judiciary.