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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Turkey’s chargé d’affairs in Baghdad on 3 May to receive a formal protest about a visit by senior Turkish officials to northern Iraq. Turkish defence minister Hulusi Akar visited the Bilic Tepe base in the Kurdistan region on 1 May, along with chief of the General Staff General Yasar Guler and Land Forces commander Umit Dundar.

Iraq
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The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (Nedaja) vessel Makran departed the Gulf port of Bandar Abbas on 23 April, amid speculation it might be heading to the Red Sea to replace the merchant vessel Saviz, which was damaged in an Israeli mine attack on 6 April.

Israel | Iran
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Officially Tehran denies having any military links to Yemen’s Houthis, despite ample evidence to the contrary collated by the United Nations and others. However, in an indication of heightened self-confidence, some in Tehran have become far more open about the issue.

Iran | Yemen
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Efforts to end the Yemen conflict continue amid a wave of shuttle diplomacy, but a ceasefire will not be a panacea for Riyadh’s long-term vulnerability on its southern border.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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Recently released imagery captured by the WorldView-2 satellite on 4 January has shown the scale of a major drone exercise held at Semnan, 180km east of Tehran, at the start of the year. The imagery shows more than 150 drones on the flight-line ready to participate; more than 15 types of short- and long-range drones can be identified.

Iran
Free

The Ministry of Defence signed a memorandum of understanding with the Jordanian government covering military co-operation and industries on 14 April.

Jordan | United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force deputy commander Brigadier General Seyyed Mohammad Hossein Hejazi died on 18 April, aged 65. The cause of his death is not clear, with a number of potential reasons being hinted at in Iranian media. Hejazi served on the frontline for the entire eight years of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), where he was believed to have been exposed to chemical weapons; he had a heart disorder which may have been related to that, but he had also contracted Covid-19 relatively recently.

Israel | Iran
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 Saudi Arabia’s unilateral announcement of a peace initiative on 22 March has led to a fresh wave of diplomatic manoeuverings, as warring parties and their backers seek to position themselves ahead of any talks. Riyadh’s proposal was introduced by foreign minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, without any input from Riyadh’s ally, the government of President Abd- Rabbu Mansour Hadi, or the Office of the UN special envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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The Qatar Emiri Air Force (QEAF) is forming a joint training squadron with the UK’s Royal Air Force for BAE Systems’ Hawk aircraft, to be based at RAF Leeming in Yorkshire. The UK will also periodically deploy RAF Voyager aircraft to Qatar from July, providing air-to-air refuelling training for the QEAF. This second UK-Qatar squadron follows the joint Typhoon squadron at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire, which is due to be disbanded in 2023.

Qatar
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Inhabitants of all hues on the Yemeni island of Socotra have been raising objections to the UAE’s attempts to consolidate its control over the island, which dominates shipping channels to the Red Sea. On 6 March, the recently-appointed transport minister in President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s new unity government, Abdulsalam Hamid, dismissed Socotra Port director Riyad Suleiman, following his attempt to disrupt the unloading of 19 Emirati military vehicles.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)
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Houthi military spokesman Brigadier Yahya Al-Sari claimed its forces launched 14 drones and eight ballistic missiles at oil-related targets in Eastern Province and on targets in Jeddah, Jizan and Abha on 7 March, describing it as the sixth iteration of Operation Balanced Deterrence. Saudi Arabia acknowledged it had intercepted a drone attacking the Ras Tanura oil storage and shipment facility and a ballistic missile targeted on Saudi Aramco’s residential compound in Dhahran; no damage or injuries were reported in either case.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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The United States and its Gulf allies are making rapid changes to their defence planning to deal with the threat from Iranian-designed cruise missiles and ‘suicide’ drones, which could become even more potent as Iran and its proxies develop longer-range systems. Defence spending, including investment in local industries, continues apace across the region, driven by the Gulf monarchies’ senior leaderships.

Iran
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Saudi Arabia is keen to end the costly war on its southern border, but has yet to find a way out while also ensuring its security and preserving Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s reputation. The Biden administration could contribute to the conflict’s resolution, provided it can reach a new understanding with Iran. In the meantime, many are profiting from the conflict, with large-scale smuggling from Oman and the UAE bringing arms and much more into the conflict zone.

Saudi Arabia | Yemen
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The latest report by the Panel of Experts on Yemen to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), released in late January, has highlighted how all parties to the conflict are guilty of economic profiteering which, alongside the fighting and human rights violations, is exacerbating the country’s dire situation. The UN Panel offered more details on the strength of the Houthi-Iran relationship, as well as corruption within the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, and violations of UNSC resolutions by the Southern Transition Council (STC).

Yemen
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Iran’s regional expansion, its nuclear politics and conflict with the west and GCC allies are all prominent features of regional geopolitics, but has the pressure its behaviours have attracted had any impact on the Islamic Republic’s military projection into its near abroad? GSN’s analysis of recent activity – and especially naval deployments – suggests Iran has suffered setbacks but the build-up continues.

Iran